North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[politicallefty]

If it weren't for the partisan fairness requirement, a map like this could be quite reasonable from a COI standpoint while still making the map R favorable.

I think one of the more rational conceptions keeps Winston-Salem and Greensboro in the same district. Separating the two cities dilutes their influence. I think that and the fact they tried to dismantle the Butterfield district is what put this map over the line. A 9R-5D  map with a few lean R seats probably would have been acceptable overall.

[politicallefty]

Charlotte suburbs to Chapel Hill is horrifying. I think that needs to be cleaned that up and to make NC-01 more Democratic. I also think the more logical district in the Triad is to base it in Guilford County and pick up most of Winston-Salem from Forsyth County.

[politicallefty]

The link to the North Carolina order.

Alito (joined by Thomas and Gorsuch) dissented for the expected reason. Kavanaugh seems to want to have it both ways. He voted against the emergency stay, but seems like he wants to overturn the precedent established in 2015. Interestingly, the denial seems to have consisted of a majority include the three liberals, Roberts, and Barrett. Today is a sigh of relief if you stand by the 2015 decision, but there is definitely cause for concern going forward.

[politicallefty]

There's an interesting discussion to be had about how Democratic vote distribution compares between North Carolina and Georgia. Both are 50/50 southern states, but outlook for the party is considered much more favorable in the latter than the former. You could argue it's simply due to Georgia's higher minority population percentage.

I'd argue a good bit of the difference is due to how NC has 2.5 major urban centers, while Georgia has a single humongous one in Atlanta. It spreads Democratic voters along the route of the North Carolina Railroad (Interstate 85) instead of just centered around one huge city, like in Georgia. That difference makes it easier for Republicans to gerrymander without worrying about #trends (as much) in North Carolina, where in Georgia it is always necessary.

I don't think the geography of NC is particularly bad for Democrats. Neither party really has a strong geographic advantage. The distribution of the electorate just allows for greater manipulation if the other side can take total control. A fair map of NC yields a roughly even balance in the overall results. In some ways, I think it's similar to Ohio before the Trump realignment (in that a fair map would've yielded a split or even D-Majority Congressional delegation). The metro areas are more split up and there are many micropolitan areas that can offset those areas if drawn a certain way. One of the problems for Democrats in NC is that their strong performance in the Charlotte area is pretty much entirely confined to Mecklenburg County (Cabarrus does appear to be nearing swing status, but not quite yet).

At first, I was going to say it was similar to Texas, but I don't think that's accurate. Texas geography is actually good for Democrats. It's just that the gerrymanders are doing a massive amount of work. I remember playing around with DRA years ago and it wasn't hard to get Democrats to a nearly 50% share of the Congressional delegation (I think those where Obama-McCain numbers). I think it's only become worse for Republicans though. The major difference though is that Texas is far more urban/suburban than NC. A Democratic gerrymander of Texas would probably surprise most in what could be accomplished.