North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Isn't the way that SD-1 and SD-2 drawn an easy Section 2 VRA violation?   That area would be so easy to consolidate into one black majority district and there's no reason whatsoever to go down the coast like that.   Even the county groupings aren't needed in that manner.

Just for fun to follow up on this -

This map seems like a total VRA-Checkmate to the GOP's senate map in regards to districts 1 and 2.

SD-2 is black majority, districts are waaaaay more compact, I only changed four county groupings (1,2,5, and 11), and all district population deviation is kept below 11k (same as proposed map).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f0d3b37-ae67-4553-9635-0ddf0c52da9f

[Spectator]

Is there any indication which map the GOP is leaning towards regarding NC-1? That’s the only seat that is intriguing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any indication which map the GOP is leaning towards regarding NC-1? That’s the only seat that is intriguing.

One theory I have is the map 2 config (a swingy NC-01) is what they actually plan to do, especially since they know long term that district is probably shifting their way, but map 1 where they make NC-01 a pack is a threat of sorts of what they will do if faced with a VRA/14th Amendment suit.

[Epaminondas]

I don't understand how Democrats thought they would have no shot at losing the legislature, given that they lost the state House in 1994 and 1996 and only had a 5 seat majority in the Senate in the mid 1990s.  Also, Dole and Bush almost certainly won a majority of seats in both houses of the legislature.  Even if they screwed this up, they had a chance to rectify it by putting independent redistricting on the ballot in 2010 (they controlled the legislature and could have voted to put it on the ballot via their majorities) when polls ACTUALLY SHOWED THEM LOSING THE MAJORITIES IN BOTH CHAMBERS OF THE STATE LEGISLATURE.  

If this is true, might the plans have been blocked by the safe seat conservadems who (selfish/normal) put their self-interest over long-term democratic chances in NC?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok so they advancing map 2 (the 10-1-3 map) with minor amendments to 3,7 and 8

[Spectator]

Ok so they advancing map 2 (the 10-1-3 map) with minor amendments to 3,7 and 8

Will be a fascinating race to watch next year for sure. One of the rarities in the south.

[Roll Roons]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

[Nyvin]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

60% vote of approval in both leg. chambers in one session to get an amendment on the ballot (no gov veto).

[ProgressiveModerate]

The GOP map is not only effective at making all the R districts simillar in partisanship, but also has it so all the R districts take in a good mix of D and R shifting communities to try and prevent trends from eventually breaking the map.

Compare this to GOP maps in places like GA and TX, where certain seats stand out as liabilities because even if they're Trump + double-digits right now, they have been shifting very hard left for the past decade. Here, all the R seats around around Trump + 11 - 17 but none stand out as particular long-term liabilities other than *maybe* NC-11 or NC-13 if suburban Wake County goes brrr.

[Roll Roons]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

60% vote of approval in both leg. chambers in one session to get an amendment on the ballot (no gov veto).

Oof.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

60% vote of approval in both leg. chambers in one session to get an amendment on the ballot (no gov veto).

Oof.

Ye Dems only shot at fixing NC redistricting at this point is flipping the State Court and/or the federal Court, both of which will prolly take a while. Good chance NC itself is Senate seat 50 or 51 for Dems at some point this decade so could be decisive as to whether they fill a seat or not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is only state Rs are gonna do well in redistricting they lost AL, WI and NY and CA redistricting cases

[Tekken_Guy]

What's the constitutional petition process like in NC?

60% vote of approval in both leg. chambers in one session to get an amendment on the ballot (no gov veto).

Oof.

Ye Dems only shot at fixing NC redistricting at this point is flipping the State Court and/or the federal Court, both of which will prolly take a while. Good chance NC itself is Senate seat 50 or 51 for Dems at some point this decade so could be decisive as to whether they fill a seat or not.

The best they can do is elect Stein in 2024 and block a supermajority in at least one chamber. While the latter won’t be easy (Budd won the tipping point in both chambers by at least 3 points) it’s not completely out of reach either (as a lot of those seats around the tipping point are left-trending).

Then they to win 4 out of 5 State Supreme Court races up until 2028.

[patzer]

Will be interesting to see if Wiley Nickel runs for reelection in the 2nd or the 4th, given his home seems to be close to the border between the two. Or if he decides to not run in either primary and opt for another course of action.

[Sol]

Will be interesting to see if Wiley Nickel runs for reelection in the 2nd or the 4th, given his home seems to be close to the border between the two. Or if he decides to not run in either primary and opt for another course of action.

2nd is a better bet for him imo. Foushee is a Chapel Hill politician, so it's easy to imagine her dominating the primary in Orange (where she's part of a local political dynasty) and Chatham, which is already a pretty substantial chunk of the Democratic primary electorate. Plus she's a better fit for Durham, ideologically and culturally, and she's represented it already. Those places easily override the suburbs of Western Wake in a primary.

I think it'd be an uphill battle in NC-02 as well, but less steep than the alternative. IMO he probably bows out gracefully and plans on running for something else.

[Spectator]

Will be interesting to see if Wiley Nickel runs for reelection in the 2nd or the 4th, given his home seems to be close to the border between the two. Or if he decides to not run in either primary and opt for another course of action.

2nd is a better bet for him imo. Foushee is a Chapel Hill politician, so it's easy to imagine her dominating the primary in Orange (where she's part of a local political dynasty) and Chatham, which is already a pretty substantial chunk of the Democratic primary electorate. Plus she's a better fit for Durham, ideologically and culturally, and she's represented it already. Those places easily override the suburbs of Western Wake in a primary.

I think it'd be an uphill battle in NC-02 as well, but less steep than the alternative. IMO he probably bows out gracefully and plans on running for something else.

Wouldn’t statewide just be easier? For one of the commish spots or even the open Supreme Court seat?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Btw, didn't NC Democrats screw themselves sometime in the 90s or 2000s by taking away the governor's power to veto maps?

The Governor of North Carolina did not have veto power over any bill until 1996.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok Senate passed map.

Let’s see if House makes any modifications. Probably a pretty solid 10-1-3 map. Don Davis I’d an overperformer but low black turnout can easily kill him.

[Mr.Phips]

Ok Senate passed map.

Let’s see if House makes any modifications. Probably a pretty solid 10-1-3 map. Don Davis I’d an overperformer but low black turnout can easily kill him.

I think he can win in 2024, but 2026 is another story, especially if Biden is re-elected.  This map would be almost tolerable if they had not split Guilford county, even if they attached it to Randolph and part of Davidson to make NC-06 as red as possible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Updated State House map (very few changes).

Broke 70-50 for Trump in 2020. Rmbr, in NC 72 seats are needed for a supermajority.

There are a handful of narrow Biden seats in the "black belt" that could def be vulnerable, especially in cycles with low black turnout and/or black voters shifting right. Dems already lost the current equivalents to some of these districts in 2022.

There are a few competative suburban seats as well. Notably, Beasley in 2022 outran Biden 2020 in both of the competative Mecklenburg and both of the competative Wake County House districts. She also pretty notably outran Biden in the Chatham County based district.

This map makes it very hard for Democrats to get a majority though. To do so, they'd either have to make back huge gains in eastern rural NC which seems unlikely at this point, or have suburban shifts go on overdrive flipping some Trump + 20ish seats around greater Charlotte, Raliegh, Greensboro, ect.

Honestly Dems are having an increasingly poor vote distribution in NC. If you look at where Dems have made some of the biggest gains over the past decade in NC, it's been mostly in Safe Blue areas in Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte. Sure, they've flipped a few suburban seats, but a pretty underwhelmingly number considering the magnitude of their gains in these metro areas.

[Sol]

Yeah the big picture issue for NC Dems in the legislature is that a lot of their support is locked up in districts which are like 55-45 R, like much of the state east of Raleigh. Those places aren't winnable for the NC Democrats as presently constituted, especially since they've failed to win outright Biden-voting seats in this part of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah the big picture issue for NC Dems in the legislature is that a lot of their support is locked up in districts which are like 55-45 R, like much of the state east of Raleigh. Those places aren't winnable for the NC Democrats as presently constituted, especially since they've failed to win outright Biden-voting seats in this part of the state.

I think Dems best long term hope is that the urban parts of the state continue to grow at fast rates, cause if you could get those seats close to a majority, it'd be really hard for Republicans to win the legistlature unless they start making big time comebacks. Within Counties like Wake and Mecklenburg, Democrats have quite an effective vote distribution.

[Spectator]

Yeah the big picture issue for NC Dems in the legislature is that a lot of their support is locked up in districts which are like 55-45 R, like much of the state east of Raleigh. Those places aren't winnable for the NC Democrats as presently constituted, especially since they've failed to win outright Biden-voting seats in this part of the state.

I think Dems best long term hope is that the urban parts of the state continue to grow at fast rates, cause if you could get those seats close to a majority, it'd be really hard for Republicans to win the legistlature unless they start making big time comebacks. Within Counties like Wake and Mecklenburg, Democrats have quite an effective vote distribution.

Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if that lone Mecklenburg Trump seat is won by Biden next year. Or if one of the Wake ones flip.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am a bit surprised you can draw a Mecklenburg Trump seat at all.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2020 Pres - 2022 Sen map.