North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[GALeftist]

Senate statement says maps next week, votes potentially in in the week following that.

They are moving fast enough that in theory there could be a VRA vote dilution PI appeal claim could be made against the 1st if it is made Whiter - though IMO it's getting Durham back like in 2016 since this is post-Milligan.

You don't think that might be playing with fire, what with the extra district compared to 2016 and with Wake County trends being what they are?

[Oryxslayer]

Senate statement says maps next week, votes potentially in in the week following that.

They are moving fast enough that in theory there could be a VRA vote dilution PI appeal claim could be made against the 1st if it is made Whiter - though IMO it's getting Durham back like in 2016 since this is post-Milligan.

You don't think that might be playing with fire, what with the extra district compared to 2016 and with Wake County trends being what they are?

No, IMO its 10-4, and if it's not there is a decent chance a PI forces them to that. But we can only wait and see. They wanted 10-3 in 2022, but that was before Milligan made it clear that they couldn't get away with cutting an access seat. And they still ended up at 10-4 or 10-3-1, at least on paper.

NC-01 is Durham-Rural. NC-02 is Dem Wake core. NC-04 is Chapel Hill to Greensboro, probably by way of the northern rurals and a cut rather than Alamance, maybe with some of Wake added on through East Chatham. NC-12 is Charlette. Or alternative, you swap Durham with Wake's AA community and have Wake-rural, Wake, Durham/Chapel Hill/Greensboro, Charlette. In theory this should be safe from lawsuits with the NC Supreme Court majority-GOP, unless they try some real discriminatory cutups of minority communities that make for a racial gerrymandering case.

If they try 10-3 with Durham-Rural, it probably requires something visually incomprehensible in the Triangle for the reasons you allude to. Additionally the growth and additional district makes it hard to just return to 2016's lines easy.

Meanwhile, trying 10-3 while diluting NC-01 is going to get it forced back to a Dem district either through a PI using the post-Milligan legal situation to do what wasn't possible in 2022, or through a vote dilution suit before 2026. But maybe they will do that and just expect to hold the seat for two years.

They could even be cooking up something real heinous, motivated by the tight nature of the present congress. Or they could surprise us in the other direction, and draw something that they know will stand until 2030 cause there's more Dem packing than cracking, like in the 2020 map.  We can only wait and see.

[Vern]

So, I’m guessing we will get maps this week. Does anyone know what day?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/MichaelWNCN/status/1713996335555252701
I bet we'll see them tomorrow.

[Sol]

https://twitter.com/MichaelWNCN/status/1713996335555252701
I bet we'll see them tomorrow.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that we see them before Thursday (or Wednesday night when the Democrats on the committee get them.) That would be in keeping with how Republicans have operated this year.

[Oryxslayer]

The damage is expected to be unveiled in a few hours.

[Vern]

I’m interested to see what district I am going to fall in now haha

[Gass3268]

Hopefully Democrats in New York are ready to do the right thing after what North Carolina Republicans are going to do today.

[Stuart98]

Hopefully Democrats in New York are ready to do the right thing after what North Carolina Republicans are going to do today.

Eliminate two Republicans for every Democrat eliminated by North Carolina.

[Spectator]

Is Don Davis the only question mark here? I think we can all assume Jackson, Manning, and Nickel are goners. Anyone else?

[GALeftist]

Maps dropped.

https://ncleg.gov/Legislation/Bills/FiledByDay/2023/S

Most notably at first glance they put Durham in NC-01.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So NC-01 is a Dem sink?

Is it possible they got rid of NC-04 since it seems NC-01 may have taken in quite a bit of both Orange and Durham?

[GALeftist]

Yeah this is an 11-3 map. Haven't put it all together but the gist of it is that NC-01 takes in Durham and a bunch of Orange along with a bunch of the northeast, NC-02 is most of Wake, and then NC-12 is Mecklenburg obviously.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maps dropped.

https://ncleg.gov/Legislation/Bills/FiledByDay/2023/S

Most notably at first glance they put Durham in NC-01.

There's no visible map at that link.

[Gass3268]

Yeah this is an 11-3 map. Haven't put it all together but the gist of it is that NC-01 takes in Durham and a bunch of Orange along with a bunch of the northeast, NC-02 is most of Wake, and then NC-12 is Mecklenburg obviously.

That is only the first map, some of the others don’t do that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

[Oryxslayer]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

[ProgressiveModerate]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

Ye I saw that too. Shows at least some NC Rs are scared about Asheville flipping NC-11 long term since there’s a pretty natural Trump + 11ish config for NC-11 and Trump + 11 should generally be sufficient imo.

[Nyvin]

NC-2 is entirely within Wake County in both versions, so that's obviously a dem sink.  NC-12 is entirely in Mecklenburg County in both versions too, so same there.

In the second version, Orange and Durham are both entirely within NC-4, so that's another dem sink too. 

In the first version Durham is with a bunch of the black rurals in the northeast, so probably safe D.

Looks like a solid 11-3.

[kwabbit]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

Ye I saw that too. Shows at least some NC Rs are scared about Asheville flipping NC-11 long term since there’s a pretty natural Trump + 11ish config for NC-11 and Trump + 11 should generally be sufficient imo.

Cawthorn could have lost in 2022. I believe the seat was single digits for Budd and Cawthorn was more radioactive than someone like Boebert. Even if they have a generic R now, the idea of it flipping in a good Dem year is not unreasonable.

[GALeftist]

Oops, yeah, two versions. Looks like one double-bunks Foushee and Davis and one does not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC-2 is entirely within Wake County in both versions, so that's obviously a dem sink.  NC-12 is entirely in Mecklenburg County in both versions too, so same there.

I rmbr there was one joke of a Republican map proposal in the 2020 cycle that tried to split Charlotte like 4 ways with no Dem sink. Huge dummymander given one of the seats still narrowly voted for Biden in 2020. Ceding a Charlotte and Raleigh based districts are essential for any R gerrymander at this point.

[Spectator]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

Ye I saw that too. Shows at least some NC Rs are scared about Asheville flipping NC-11 long term since there’s a pretty natural Trump + 11ish config for NC-11 and Trump + 11 should generally be sufficient imo.

Counties surrounding Buncombe have also been trending D recently, so maybe they're worried about the totality of liberal retirees setting in the area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How are you all discussing maps when there's no picture and the link doesn't provide one either?

(If it does I'm not finding it, only text, I'll need a more direct link.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Map 1 seems like a dummymander with how they handeled Wake County; the southern half especially has been brutal for Rs in recent cycles