North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

Don't they also risk allowing Dem trifectas to draw CA, CO, and WA? I think this is extremely unlikely, but if SCOTUS overturns all non-legislative drawn maps, Dems in Cali should have no sympathy.

No. A SC ruling like this would only overturn courts from drawing maps, not commissions, because commissions were ruled legislatures by Arizona.

I actually do wonder if the WA commission survives such a ruling.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

Don't they also risk allowing Dem trifectas to draw CA, CO, and WA? I think this is extremely unlikely, but if SCOTUS overturns all non-legislative drawn maps, Dems in Cali should have no sympathy.

No. A SC ruling like this would only overturn courts from drawing maps, not commissions, because commissions were ruled legislatures by Arizona.

I actually do wonder if the WA commission survives such a ruling.

Yeah I almost made a note to say that WA is a special case. But CA and CO would definitely stand.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

This map also has a entirely Wake based seat, doesn't split Greensboro, increases NC-01 black functionality and also opportunity in NC-06, and doesn't put as many rurals with suburbs they have little connection too.

I was thinking of the older maps re: Wake. I don't think race should be a deciding factor in determining maps. The new map splits Charlotte, splits Raleigh, draws Chapel Hill to rurals (which is way worse than any suburban-rural configuration, btw), and artificially gerrymanders to get Dems to 7 seats.

I agree this map isn’t the best on a granular level; I think NC-02 should be more rotated to be Raleigh based, however, none of the Dem seats are really artificial. A truly fair map would likely have a black belt seat, Raleigh seat, Durham/Chapel Hill seat, Greensboro seat, and Charlotte seat with a D leaning swing seat in Charlotte, a swing seat in Sandhills, and a swing seat of Raleigh burbs. My bigger issue with this map from a partisanship standpoint is the lack of competitive districts.

Furthermore, I really don’t get why Cary fits better with Durham/Chapel Hill than a suburban Raleigh seat? Burlington doesn’t seem like a terrible pairing and after that you don’t have much rurales attached.

Also, you personally may not think race should be a factor but right now VRA says it is, so too bad. Either way, wouldn’t rural/small city black communities be a clear COI?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

This map also has a entirely Wake based seat, doesn't split Greensboro, increases NC-01 black functionality and also opportunity in NC-06, and doesn't put as many rurals with suburbs they have little connection too.

I was thinking of the older maps re: Wake. I don't think race should be a deciding factor in determining maps. The new map splits Charlotte, splits Raleigh, draws Chapel Hill to rurals (which is way worse than any suburban-rural configuration, btw), and artificially gerrymanders to get Dems to 7 seats.

I agree this map isn’t the best on a granular level; I think NC-02 should be more rotated to be Raleigh based, however, none of the Dem seats are really artificial. A truly fair map would likely have a black belt seat, Raleigh seat, Durham/Chapel Hill seat, Greensboro seat, and Charlotte seat with a D leaning swing seat in Charlotte, a swing seat in Sandhills, and a swing seat of Raleigh burbs. My bigger issue with this map from a partisanship standpoint is the lack of competitive districts.

Furthermore, I really don’t get why Cary fits better with Durham/Chapel Hill than a suburban Raleigh seat? Burlington doesn’t seem like a terrible pairing and after that you don’t have much rurales attached.

Also, you personally may not think race should be a factor but right now VRA says it is, so too bad. Either way, wouldn’t rural/small city black communities be a clear COI?

1. NC-14 is artificial. Putting Gaston, Urban Charlotte, and the Charlotte suburbs together is completely artificial. Chapel Hill to rurals is artificial. It's the definition of unpacking. NC-13 is artificial. A fair suburban seat of Raleigh (that does not put the city itself into the suburban seat) is R leaning and more Johnston focused.

2. I live in Durham-Chapel Hill-Cary. Cary is highly integrated as part of the Triangle with both Chapel Hill/Durham and Raleigh. Burlington is its own thing.

3. If anything, this map hurts and reduces black representation because it repeatedly splits black communities lol. It reduces black representation even compared to the original map because it reduces the black % of the Wake only seat and the Charlotte seat

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

This map also has a entirely Wake based seat, doesn't split Greensboro, increases NC-01 black functionality and also opportunity in NC-06, and doesn't put as many rurals with suburbs they have little connection too.

I was thinking of the older maps re: Wake. I don't think race should be a deciding factor in determining maps. The new map splits Charlotte, splits Raleigh, draws Chapel Hill to rurals (which is way worse than any suburban-rural configuration, btw), and artificially gerrymanders to get Dems to 7 seats.

I agree this map isn’t the best on a granular level; I think NC-02 should be more rotated to be Raleigh based, however, none of the Dem seats are really artificial. A truly fair map would likely have a black belt seat, Raleigh seat, Durham/Chapel Hill seat, Greensboro seat, and Charlotte seat with a D leaning swing seat in Charlotte, a swing seat in Sandhills, and a swing seat of Raleigh burbs. My bigger issue with this map from a partisanship standpoint is the lack of competitive districts.

Furthermore, I really don’t get why Cary fits better with Durham/Chapel Hill than a suburban Raleigh seat? Burlington doesn’t seem like a terrible pairing and after that you don’t have much rurales attached.

Also, you personally may not think race should be a factor but right now VRA says it is, so too bad. Either way, wouldn’t rural/small city black communities be a clear COI?

1. NC-14 is artificial. Putting Gaston, Urban Charlotte, and the Charlotte suburbs together is completely artificial. Chapel Hill to rurals is artificial. It's the definition of unpacking. NC-13 is artificial. A fair suburban seat of Raleigh (that does not put the city itself into the suburban seat) is R leaning and more Johnston focused.

2. I live in Durham-Chapel Hill-Cary. Cary is highly integrated as part of the Triangle with both Chapel Hill/Durham and Raleigh. Burlington is its own thing.

3. If anything, this map hurts and reduces black representation because it repeatedly splits black communities lol. It reduces black representation even compared to the original map because it reduces the black % of the Wake only seat and the Charlotte seat

1. I feel like people are giving the Charlotte split too much greif just because most maps here proposed a more east/west divide of the metro. NC-14 really doesn't take much of the black population from NC-12, and very much feels akin to the NC-09 that existed from 1993 to 2017, just more compact, especially now that population actually warrants it. If I could, I would shed the Gaston Portion to Union County, but it essentially tries to take in White suburbs on both sides of the city. While the GOP's proposal of a Charlotte based district was compact, it made all the other district around it snakes connecting suburbs to rurals they have nothing to do with, essentially the same reason a "packed" Columbus or Pittsburg seat doesn't work well for the districts around it even if it looks clean.

I'm not going to argue with you on the latter 2 as you likely know more about the culture of the metro and how communities interact more than I do. The sense I get is that Cary is more related to Raleigh and Chapell hill/Durham are their own thing, and by putting them into the same district the communities would be constantly fighting each other for a voice. Furthermore, Chatham County seems like it could be a good fit to add to a Chapell Hill/Durham based district, though obv there will still be population left over.

2. See previous point. Either way can be both agree a fair map of the Tech Triangle produces 2 safe D seats and a swingy seat, probably somewhere between Trump + 6 and Biden + 2?

3. I agree the Wake split is bad, and NC-02 should become more Raleigh based which would increase BVAP. See point 1 for Charlotte.

Outside of NC-12, NC-01 is the 2nd most functional black seat so making it more likely to elect a black candidate of choice over the old map is a big win.



My "fix" map would be something roughly like this

Burlington is a bit weird to deal with

[Ritz]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

Don't they also risk allowing Dem trifectas to draw CA, CO, and WA? I think this is extremely unlikely, but if SCOTUS overturns all non-legislative drawn maps, Dems in Cali should have no sympathy.

No. A SC ruling like this would only overturn courts from drawing maps, not commissions, because commissions were ruled legislatures by Arizona.

The Arizona ruling didn't say commissions are legislatures. They said, "[r]edistricting is a legislative function to be performed in accordance with the State's prescriptions for lawmaking." What conservatives are arguing is that the state and federal legislature have the sole power to redistrict under the elections clause. If Republicans win this case, it would overturn the Arizona decision and invalidate commissions as well. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

What I don't understand about their case is what if the governor and legislature just can't agree? Do we not get new maps? Or if so who says what the map is? The most logical answer should be the courts.

In a state like Michigan for instance, without the Michigan Commission, I don't think Whitmer and the state legislature would ever be able to agree on a map in any world and Whitmer would want a map that's fair from a direct partisanship standpoint while the legislature uses geography and VRA to pack Detroit, possibly creating only 4 Biden seats.

[Ritz]

What I don't understand about their case is what if the governor and legislature just can't agree? Do we not get new maps? Or if so who says what the map is? The most logical answer should be the courts.

In a state like Michigan for instance, without the Michigan Commission, I don't think Whitmer and the state legislature would ever be able to agree on a map in any world and Whitmer would want a map that's fair from a direct partisanship standpoint while the legislature uses geography and VRA to pack Detroit, possibly creating only 4 Biden seats.

They're advocating for a very literal reading of the elections clause so governors would have no say over redistricting either. Only split legislatures like MN and VA would realistically have court-drawn maps.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/status/1500957552162623489?s=20&t=nJY6nnv...

[politicallefty]

The link to the North Carolina order.

Alito (joined by Thomas and Gorsuch) dissented for the expected reason. Kavanaugh seems to want to have it both ways. He voted against the emergency stay, but seems like he wants to overturn the precedent established in 2015. Interestingly, the denial seems to have consisted of a majority include the three liberals, Roberts, and Barrett. Today is a sigh of relief if you stand by the 2015 decision, but there is definitely cause for concern going forward.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://districtr.org/plan/128823

Unrefined/unfinished blue gerrymander in NC that should deliver the Democrats 8 seats. I still need to fix some things, but the general point is more or less clear.

EDIT: Didn't want to bump an old thread just to share this, but yesterday, I made a (if I may say so myself) very efficient 9-5 Democratic gerrymander for NC. Unlike Districtr's, this map is 100% done - no precincts left unassigned, all districts totally contiguous, very low population deviation. I was also better in this map with county splits that in the Districtr one, for sure (it helps that I used to the "County" option to paint the districts first, and then after that split counties as needed - that way I was aware of, and considered, country boundaries and avoided splitting counties too crazily). This map was also more compact than the Districtr one. But my biggest accomplishment here - and something which, as far as I remember, I've never tried or even thought of before - was creating a blue district in western NC by placing Asheville and Winston-Salem in the same district. In the Districtr map, I split Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) up three ways (and a tiny part was in another district - so Mecklenburg was split between 4 districts, really three)...one which also included Asheville, another which headed east to take in Fayetteville and the Lumbee area, and a third which was Charlotte and its northern suburbs. In this map, I was able to increase the Democratic seats by one because Asheville+Winston-Salem was one blue district, and Charlotte still produced three blue seats: two in the Charlotte area, and another which went into the Robeson County area + Fayetteville. Anyway, without further ado: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::3208c8ba-48cd-4036-96a1-c1ff663eedbb.

DISTRICT ONE (Charlotte area - parts of Mecklenburg and Union Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+21.2
2020 PRES: Biden+18.8
2016/2020 CPVI: D+6.77
2012/2016 CPVI: D+3.62

DISTRICT TWO (rural west - all of Cherokee, Clay, Macon, Graham, Swain, Jackson, Hawyood, Transylvania, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford, McDowell, Burke, Caldwell and Wilkies Counties, and parts of Madison, Buncombe, Avery and Yadkin Counties)
2020 GOV: Forest+28.3
2020 PRES: Trump+36.0
2016/2020 CPVI: R+20.66
2012/2016 CPVI: R+18.59

DISTRICT THREE (suburbs and exurbs west of Charlotte - all of Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln, Cleveland and Gaston Counties, and parts of Iredell County)
2020 GOV: Forest+28.4
2020 PRES: Trump+34.5
2016/2020 CPVI: R+19.67
2012/2016 CPVI: R+18.25

DISTRICT FOUR (Greensboro and High Point and places to their west and northwest - all of Guilford and Stokes Counties, and parts of Surry, Forsyth and Rockingham Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+12.1
2020 PRES: Biden+5.2
2016/2020 CPVI: D+0.64
2012/2016 CPVI: D+0.16

DISTRICT FIVE (Chapel Hill, and just a bunch of places in the state's northern and central regions - all of Caswell, Person, Alamance, Orange, Chatham, Vance, Warren and Franklin Counties, and parts of Rockingham, Durham, Granville and Halifax Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+17.1
2020 PRES: Biden+11.0
2016/2020 CPVI: D+4.47
2012/2016 CPVI: D+4.65

DISTRICT SIX (swaths of territory quite a bit north of Charlotte - all of Davie, Rowan, Davidson, Randolph, Stanly and Montgomery Counties, and parts of Yadkin, Iredell and Moore Counties)
2020 GOV:  Forest+36.4
2020 PRES: Trump+44.8
2016/2020 CPVI: R+24.58
2012/2016 CPVI: R+22.74

DISTRICT SEVEN (Asheville, Winston-Salem, and a bunch of the state's western lands bridging the two cities together - all of Yancey, Mitchell, Watauga, Ashe, and Alleghany Counties, and parts of Surry, Yadkin, Forsyth, Avery, Madison and Buncombe Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+16.4
2020 PRES: Biden+10.7
2016/2020 CPVI: D+2.83
2012/2016 CPVI: D+1.52

DISTRICT EIGHT (Charlotte area - all of Cabarrus County and parts of Mecklenburg County)
2020 GOV: Cooper+27.0
2020 PRES: Biden+23.2
2016/2020 CPVI: D+8.72
2012/2016 CPVI: D+6.71

DISTRICT NINE (Durham County and parts of Raleigh area and land immediately to its north and south - all of Lee and Harnett Counties, and parts of Wake, Johnston, Durham and Granville Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+26.5
2020 PRES: Biden+20.9
2016/2020 CPVI: D+8.75
2012/2016 CPVI: D+7.74

DISTRICT TEN (a sliver of Charlotte proper and its eastern suburbs, as well as Fayetteville and those blue counties east of Charlotte near/bordering SC that have trended to the right in 2016 and 2020 - all of Anson, Richmond, Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland and Bladen Counties, and parts of Mecklenburg, Union, Moore, Robeson, Sampson and Pender Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+10.4
2020 PRES: Biden+3.2
2016/2020 CPVI: D+0.58
2012/2016 CPVI: D+2.73

DISTRICT ELEVEN (Raleigh area and much of the majority-African-American area in the northeast of the state represented by G.K. Butterfield - all of Currituck, Camden, Pasquotank, Gates, Perquimans, Chowan, Hertford, Bertie, Northampton, Martin, Pitt, Edgecombe, Nash and Wilson Counties, and parts of Halifax, Johnston and Wake Counties)
2020 GOV: Cooper+15.2
2020 PRES: Biden+10.6
2016/2020 CPVI: D+4.13
2012/2016 CPVI: D+5.31

DISTRICT TWELVE (Raleigh area - parts of Wake County)
2020 GOV: Cooper+29.4
2020 PRES: Biden+24.0
2016/2020 CPVI: D+9.01
2012/2016 CPVI: D+4.38

DISTRICT THIRTEEN (the southeastern coastal plains as well as the southern part of the NC coast - all of Columbus, Brunswick, New Hanover, and Onslow Counties, and parts of Robeson, Pender, Sampson and Duplin Counties)
2020 GOV: Forest+11.5
2020 PRES: Trump+17.8
2016/2020 CPVI: R+11.32
2012/2016 CPVI: R+10.59

DISTRICT FOURTEEN (eastern part of the state - all of Dare, Tyrrell, Washington, Hyde, Beaufort, Pamlico, Carteret, Craven, Jones, Lenoir, Green, and Wayne Counties, and parts of Wake, Johnston, Sampson and Duplin Counties)
2020 GOV: Forest+11.5
2020 PRES: Trump+17.8
2016/2020 CPVI: R+11.32
2012/2016 CPVI: R+10.59

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e1a836cc-2791-43b6-9f7e-5006b4a51f34
Thoughts on this map?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e1a836cc-2791-43b6-9f7e-5006b4a51f34
Thoughts on this map?

North Carolina is awkward to draw, especially in the Fayetteville/Wilmington/Goldsboro triangle. I like the competitive seat in the area though

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e1a836cc-2791-43b6-9f7e-5006b4a51f34
Thoughts on this map?

North Carolina is awkward to draw, especially in the Fayetteville/Wilmington/Goldsboro triangle. I like the competitive seat in the area though

Thanks for the feedback.
I was trying to draw a minority seat in the area.
I also managed to reach almost perfect proportionalitality per DRA.

[Devils30]

Anyone think that Roe gone could keep the NC high court in Dem hands and cost the GOP with maps for the entire decade? I feel that the court is the easiest Dem victory.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone think that Roe gone could keep the NC high court in Dem hands and cost the GOP with maps for the entire decade? I feel that the court is the easiest Dem victory.

Not impossible

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

[If my soul was made of stone]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It would be better for the First to scoop in Goldsboro and Kinston (while avoiding most of their white environs) than to reach into whiter parts of the Albemarle as it does here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It would be better for the First to scoop in Goldsboro and Kinston (while avoiding most of their white environs) than to reach into whiter parts of the Albemarle as it does here.

I was considering that, but tbh it's not worth it for how little it increases the black population. Either that would mean 3 would have to have a very little arm into Johnson County or there would just have to be a weird config between 3 and 7 which would've be very coherent.

NC is a bit unfortunate in the way black voters are distributed. A true 50% black district is basically impossible to draw within any sort of reason, despite the state having 14 CDs and an over 20% black population.

Next decade, especially if NC doesn't gain  district, it's very possible District 1 will have depopulated enough to the point where it becomes a district where whites dominate the election outcomes. On the flip side though, it will probably be possible to make 12 or it's equivalent very close to 50% BVAP and it's obviously a safe D district in a GE.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It would be better for the First to scoop in Goldsboro and Kinston (while avoiding most of their white environs) than to reach into whiter parts of the Albemarle as it does here.

I was considering that, but tbh it's not worth it for how little it increases the black population. Either that would mean 3 would have to have a very little arm into Johnson County or there would just have to be a weird config between 3 and 7 which would've be very coherent.

NC is a bit unfortunate in the way black voters are distributed. A true 50% black district is basically impossible to draw within any sort of reason, despite the state having 14 CDs and an over 20% black population.

Next decade, especially if NC doesn't gain  district, it's very possible District 1 will have depopulated enough to the point where it becomes a district where whites dominate the election outcomes. On the flip side though, it will probably be possible to make 12 or it's equivalent very close to 50% BVAP and it's obviously a safe D district in a GE.

Another under utilized minority district is actually in the 6th. Greensboro/Winston Salem have enough minority populations to make it a majority minority seat

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It would be better for the First to scoop in Goldsboro and Kinston (while avoiding most of their white environs) than to reach into whiter parts of the Albemarle as it does here.

I was considering that, but tbh it's not worth it for how little it increases the black population. Either that would mean 3 would have to have a very little arm into Johnson County or there would just have to be a weird config between 3 and 7 which would've be very coherent.

NC is a bit unfortunate in the way black voters are distributed. A true 50% black district is basically impossible to draw within any sort of reason, despite the state having 14 CDs and an over 20% black population.

Next decade, especially if NC doesn't gain  district, it's very possible District 1 will have depopulated enough to the point where it becomes a district where whites dominate the election outcomes. On the flip side though, it will probably be possible to make 12 or it's equivalent very close to 50% BVAP and it's obviously a safe D district in a GE.

Another under utilized minority district is actually in the 6th. Greensboro/Winston Salem have enough minority populations to make it a majority minority seat

In this map I actually tried to make the black population in 6 as high as possible within reason.

[Sol]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It's always possible to nitpick NC maps a lot, simply because, as you articulated, NC population distribution is pretty awkward and you always have to screw communities over.

That said, I don't think there's good justification for putting anything in Cabarrus County in the 12th district.

You can also realign 1, 3, and 7 to make Discovolante's suggestion easier--basically put Johnston in 7, then some more of Onslow in 3, and then you can easily trade between 1 and 3 to make 1 more Black.

FWIW, as someone from Watauga County, it's really not necessary to put it in with Asheville. Boone and Asheville are both in the same region of the state, and are pretty culturally similar, but doing a district linking Asheville and Boone isn't necessary imo when this is possible and is better CoI:



(Not that your district is bad CoI, but Boone is fine in a seat with Hickory or Winston)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Since were throwing our maps around here's a rough idea of my ideal map for NC


https://davesredistricting.org/join/a5c39e3c-30de-414d-8121-1d942f631697

It creates three highly competitive districts (two R+2 and one R+1), as well as four majority minority seats.

The 6th, 1st, 10th, and 12th are all majority minority, with the largest minority in all being black, and the 10th and 12th having large native and hispanic populations (respectively). It's not the prettiest map, but for keeping COI's together as well as being extremely perportional and having great minority representativion I think it does well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC tends to be quite an awkward state to redistrict, especially just with the sizes of various COIs and Cities, they always seem just slightly too large or too small for a district. Here I tried to give a go at drawing the "ideal" NC map that really does it's best to follows COIs in a neat way.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4fa3a1cb-6788-4c70-ab08-8082d7b3bc67

This is 2020 Pres numbers, though 9 goes to Ds in the 2016-2020 composite and 13 goes R.

Overall while it may be a bit rough around the edges, I feel like this map does a really good job at balancing several considerations of a good map, including COIs, compactness, county splitting, partisan fairness, and competitive districts.

In 2030, I'll be really curious to see who controls redistricting as well as whether NC gains an additional district or not. Regardless, Charlotte and Raliegh districts will likely be overpopulated and hence need to shrink making things a bit easier perhaps since Mecklenburg and Wake Counties would be closer to supporting 2 whole districts within them.

It's always possible to nitpick NC maps a lot, simply because, as you articulated, NC population distribution is pretty awkward and you always have to screw communities over.

That said, I don't think there's good justification for putting anything in Cabarrus County in the 12th district.

You can also realign 1, 3, and 7 to make Discovolante's suggestion easier--basically put Johnston in 7, then some more of Onslow in 3, and then you can easily trade between 1 and 3 to make 1 more Black.

FWIW, as someone from Watauga County, it's really not necessary to put it in with Asheville. Boone and Asheville are both in the same region of the state, and are pretty culturally similar, but doing a district linking Asheville and Boone isn't necessary imo when this is possible and is better CoI:



(Not that your district is bad CoI, but Boone is fine in a seat with Hickory or Winston)

Yeah I often default to that nice whole County district 2 for district 11, the main reason I didn't here was because I tend to find Buncombe and Watauga culturally similar; Rutherford County specifically for whatever reasons feels like a bit of the odd one out in NC-11.

Imma try and do an update map with these suggestions and see how it goes.

Also Ngl but this config of NC-11 helped with partisan balance of the overall map in this case.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Since were throwing our maps around here's a rough idea of my ideal map for NC


https://davesredistricting.org/join/a5c39e3c-30de-414d-8121-1d942f631697

It creates three highly competitive districts (two R+2 and one R+1), as well as four majority minority seats.

The 6th, 1st, 10th, and 12th are all majority minority, with the largest minority in all being black, and the 10th and 12th having large native and hispanic populations (respectively). It's not the prettiest map, but for keeping COI's together as well as being extremely perportional and having great minority representativion I think it does well.

Def not the prettiest map[ but I agree decent in terms of COI. My main gripe would be NC-02; why not keep it entirely within Wake, especially given how fast the suburbs fade to rurals once you leave Wake.