North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oftentimes getting partisan equality (which the NC map is spot in) is impossible without making it look ugly. For instance, this is the cleanest 'fair map' of WI I could do:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::58b328c0-461f-469e-b687-4e747f43d211

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oftentimes getting partisan equality (which the NC map is spot in) is impossible without making it look ugly. For instance, this is the cleanest 'fair map' of WI I could do:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::58b328c0-461f-469e-b687-4e747f43d211

I think Wisconsin is a special case, in that a doctrinaire partisan equality approach runs headlong against the very bad geography for Democrats in the state.
It's more feasible elsewhere.
So 'oftentimes' is an overly strong word here.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oftentimes getting partisan equality (which the NC map is spot in) is impossible without making it look ugly. For instance, this is the cleanest 'fair map' of WI I could do:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::58b328c0-461f-469e-b687-4e747f43d211

I think Wisconsin is a special case, in that a doctrinaire partisan equality approach runs headlong against the very bad geography for Democrats in the state.
It's more feasible elsewhere.
So 'oftentimes' is an overly strong word here.

KY and TN are hard.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oftentimes getting partisan equality (which the NC map is spot in) is impossible without making it look ugly. For instance, this is the cleanest 'fair map' of WI I could do:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::58b328c0-461f-469e-b687-4e747f43d211

I think Wisconsin is a special case, in that a doctrinaire partisan equality approach runs headlong against the very bad geography for Democrats in the state.
It's more feasible elsewhere.
So 'oftentimes' is an overly strong word here.

KY and TN are hard.

That's just two other states.

[Smash255]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

[cvparty]

Oftentimes getting partisan equality (which the NC map is spot in) is impossible without making it look ugly. For instance, this is the cleanest 'fair map' of WI I could do:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::58b328c0-461f-469e-b687-4e747f43d211

I don't think it's hard at all, here's a very clean map that split 7-7 in a state that was basically even in 2020, with only 13 county splits. It's also very competitive, with 5 districts (2R, 3D) being within single digits

[patzer]

It occurs to me that if there's a mid-decade redistricting after 2022 (which seems feasible), whichever Democrat wins the new 14th district will most likely end up in a primary with Alma Adams when the Republicans condense Charlotte back down to one seat. Unless Adams retires in such a scenario to avoid a primary (possible given she's getting on a bit).

This year I expect there'll probably be quite the scramble for the 14th... Jeff Jackson is probably the strongest candidate if he wants to run.

[Roll Roons]

It occurs to me that if there's a mid-decade redistricting after 2022 (which seems feasible), whichever Democrat wins the new 14th district will most likely end up in a primary with Alma Adams when the Republicans condense Charlotte back down to one seat. Unless Adams retires in such a scenario to avoid a primary (possible given she's getting on a bit).

This year I expect there'll probably be quite the scramble for the 14th... Jeff Jackson is probably the strongest candidate if he wants to run.

He appears to be interested: https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1496876048176541696?cxt=HHwWgMDTxbi1_MU...

[lfromnj]

It occurs to me that if there's a mid-decade redistricting after 2022 (which seems feasible), whichever Democrat wins the new 14th district will most likely end up in a primary with Alma Adams when the Republicans condense Charlotte back down to one seat. Unless Adams retires in such a scenario to avoid a primary (possible given she's getting on a bit).

This year I expect there'll probably be quite the scramble for the 14th... Jeff Jackson is probably the strongest candidate if he wants to run.

He appears to be interested: https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1496876048176541696?cxt=HHwWgMDTxbi1_MU...

Brad Miller 2.0?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That map is almost as awesome as Illinois' and New York's.

[patzer]

That map is almost as awesome as Illinois' and New York's.

Eh Illinois and New York were gerrymanders to maximize Democratic members, whereas this map is a compact fair map. Which you prefer depends on whether you value a pro-Democrat map or a fair map.

[Sol]

That map is almost as awesome as Illinois' and New York's.

Eh Illinois and New York were gerrymanders to maximize Democratic members, whereas this map is a compact fair map. Which you prefer depends on whether you value a pro-Democrat map or a fair map.

A properly compact fair map of NC is probably a bit more like 7-5-2 or something though--slightly better for Republicans.

[lfromnj]

That map is almost as awesome as Illinois' and New York's.

Eh Illinois and New York were gerrymanders to maximize Democratic members, whereas this map is a compact fair map. Which you prefer depends on whether you value a pro-Democrat map or a fair map.

A properly compact fair map of NC is probably a bit more like 7-5-2 or something though--slightly better for Republicans.

6-3-5. with 1 more likely seat on each side regarding the Western seat and the Black Belt seat.

[Sol]

That map is almost as awesome as Illinois' and New York's.

Eh Illinois and New York were gerrymanders to maximize Democratic members, whereas this map is a compact fair map. Which you prefer depends on whether you value a pro-Democrat map or a fair map.

A properly compact fair map of NC is probably a bit more like 7-5-2 or something though--slightly better for Republicans.

6-3-5. with 1 more likely seat on each side regarding the Western seat and the Black Belt seat.

Ehh, I usually lump likelies in with the safe ones--hard to imagine either one flipping bar special circumstances.

5 safe D seems pretty straightforward then, no? NE, Raleigh, Durham, Triad, Charlotte.

Edit: Unless you're putting Democratic seats at the end, lol.

[lfromnj]

That map is almost as awesome as Illinois' and New York's.

Eh Illinois and New York were gerrymanders to maximize Democratic members, whereas this map is a compact fair map. Which you prefer depends on whether you value a pro-Democrat map or a fair map.

A properly compact fair map of NC is probably a bit more like 7-5-2 or something though--slightly better for Republicans.

6-3-5. with 1 more likely seat on each side regarding the Western seat and the Black Belt seat.

Ehh, I usually lump likelies in with the safe ones--hard to imagine either one flipping bar special circumstances.

5 safe D seems pretty straightforward then, no? NE, Raleigh, Durham, Triad, Charlotte.

Edit: Unless you're putting Democratic seats at the end, lol.

Yeah I meant to say 6R-3T-5D. Black Belt is a D and Western seat is R. I agree with putting them with their respective parties.

[BoiseBoy]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

[Oryxslayer]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

I mean this is superfluous based simply on Federalism grounds, if nothing else. The same attempt failed in PA in 2018, and then again today for the Legislative lines.

[Vespucci]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

I mean this is superfluous based simply on Federalism grounds, if nothing else. The same attempt failed in PA in 2018, and then again today for the Legislative lines.

Not at all. The constitution specifically says legislatures draw maps, not courts.

[Roll Roons]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

Isn't the new NC-02 entirely within Wake?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

This map also has a entirely Wake based seat, doesn't split Greensboro, increases NC-01 black functionality and also opportunity in NC-06, and doesn't put as many rurals with suburbs they have little connection too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

Don't they also risk allowing Dem trifectas to draw CA, CO, and WA? I think this is extremely unlikely, but if SCOTUS overturns all non-legislative drawn maps, Dems in Cali should have no sympathy.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Can't wait until this abomination is redrawn next year.

Sorry you hate fair maps. Cry more.

A fair map of North Carolina would respect communities of interest.

This while not perfect, does a better job at that than any of the abominations the GOP drew over the last decade in NC.

No way. The original 2020s map was better.

Yes because pushing a Charlotte district AND a Greensboro district WELL out into rural areas made a ton of sense from a COI point of view.  This is a much more compact map than the initial map that was passed

1. Didn't say it made sense. Just said it was better.

2. Yeah. Compact and COI violating.

How was the initial map better from a COI standpoint?  Greensboro all the way out to where??   South Charlotte combined with what??

Had a only in Wake district, put Durham and Chapel Hill with Cary, didn't split Charlotte in two, pretty easily better.

This map also has a entirely Wake based seat, doesn't split Greensboro, increases NC-01 black functionality and also opportunity in NC-06, and doesn't put as many rurals with suburbs they have little connection too.

I was thinking of the older maps re: Wake. I don't think race should be a deciding factor in determining maps. The new map splits Charlotte, splits Raleigh, draws Chapel Hill to rurals (which is way worse than any suburban-rural configuration, btw), and artificially gerrymanders to get Dems to 7 seats.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

If the GOP wins this case, does Ohio have to use its previously struck down map as well?

Don't they also risk allowing Dem trifectas to draw CA, CO, and WA? I think this is extremely unlikely, but if SCOTUS overturns all non-legislative drawn maps, Dems in Cali should have no sympathy.

No. A SC ruling like this would only overturn courts from drawing maps, not commissions, because commissions were ruled legislatures by Arizona.