2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Gustaf]

I was wrong, I had alraedy changed my map...



Bush wins 302-236

[Gustaf]

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.

Not a funny one though...

[Gustaf]

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.

You and Gustaf need to clue me in to your problems with Kerry.

He makes gaffes, he has no back-bone (not necessarily a bad thing though), lacks charisma and is a rich senator from Massachusetts with a very liberal record. I am not willing to call the race yet, but Bush reelection chances are going up again. Even though the Libya-man-woman incident was kind of embarrasing to Bush. Says a lot of the Republican view of women, lol.

[Gustaf]

How did Kerry win the Democratic Primaries when such sensible people as Gustaf, Miamiu and myself don't like him? I'm really curious how Kerry managed it, it really seems like the worst fluke imaginable. Does anyone know how he turned it around? I have yet to hear a reasonable answer from the media.

BOTOX coupled with a suicidal Dean

Lol...somehow he managed to win the Iowa caucus, why I have no idea. The rest was just momentum and his percieved electability, originating in his winning primaries.

[Gustaf]

That's my point Kerry won... because he won... you can understand my massive sense of confusion. :S

Siege40

Well, he came from nowhere for no obvious reason. The key is why he won Iowa. From then on it was pure momentum and perfectly explainable, even though it doesn't make sense, of course.

[Gustaf]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

[Gustaf]

That map looks highly off.

Yes, it's unlikely, since a lot of tossups we'd expect to go Dem goes Rep and vice versa. It isn't insane or impossible though.

[Gustaf]

I was thinking of how a Kerry-Richardson ticket might do.  If it was supported by McCain it would easily get the south west Arizona and New Mexico.  It would put Colorado back into play and may be able to keep Florida and Missouri interesting.  It may have no effect in Minnesota or Wisconsin.  Here is a possible 269 split.
Kerry-Richardson: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Conn, RI, Mass and DC Bush-Cheney: the rest

A Kerry-Richardson ticket probably won't be though. Your map is possible though, but I don't think WV will go for Kerry.

While I reckon a Kerry/Richardson ticket could gain NM and make AZ very competitive beyond that I doubt it would help the Dems… it would probably do little in MO and in the Midwest it would have no effect and it wouldn’t help the Dems in OH, PA or WV… don’t get me wrong… Richardson would have been GREAT! With Edwards at the top of the ticket (a DNC version of what Cheney was for Bush in 2000)… with Kerry he brings little and to all intents and purposes is just another moderately liberal, Washington insider Dem…    

I thought Richardson was governor of NM, that doesn't sound too Washington to me?

[Gustaf]

I just wanted to put out a model for an even 269. Though your right a lot of the states will be flipped from what I indicated.  I just wonder what will the really effect of the Hispanic vote be and not just in this election but in future elections since both parties are still trying to capture that vote right now.  Richardson's speech after the State of the Union was great - if he did run I think he could really animate the urban vote.  http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/RHOriginPD-1990.html  Hey it might even make Texas a competive vote.

One of these days Texas WILL be competitive, I think...the question is just whether it's in 10 years or, say, 30.

[Gustaf]

I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. But not anymore...

Who was that comment directed at?

At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... *insane evil laughter*

what the heck

Lol, how did you dig that up?

[Gustaf]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?

Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

[Gustaf]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?

Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

Relative to Bush, he would roll over - its what his supporters want.

Relative to Bush, lol...and he won't care that much about his 'supporters', it's the swing voters who matter. The guy is not an idiot, I think he'll do what needs to be done. And anyway I don't think there'll be much need of invading countries again, for the purpose of terrorism, for some time to come.

[Gustaf]

It seems all Kerry has to do is pick a VP and he wins.

[Gustaf]

Last one, Kerry/Warner


Kerry 270-268 Bush

I really need to learn how to use pictuers...

It's easy.

[Gustaf]

or Albania for that matter...

*starts whistling good 'ole shoe...*

'We guard America's borders...'

[Gustaf]

A West-East map, dividing the country electorally, would look something like this:



Red wins 276-262

And for a North-South:



Blue wins 270-268

[Gustaf]

Why isn't mississippi in the red states on the first map?  That would make it closer, and it is sticking out from the other blue states

It wouldn't make it closer, that's the problem. Otherwise I would've agreed. I had to strike a balance os some sorts, and this is what I choose.

[Gustaf]

sorry. Iscrewed up and thought the blue were ahead

It's no problem, it's easy to mix these things up...what about this one then?



Reds win 271-267

[Gustaf]

that's good, and the original map was good as well

On the north-south map, shouldn't Alaska go with the north?

Good point.

Alaska and Hawaii can be tossed into whatever column works best, imo.

[Gustaf]

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

I think this site has the best compilation of polling data: http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html

Iowa:  Rasmussen has Kerry ahead by 10 points.
Minnesota:  Rasmussen only has Kerry leading by 3 points, but the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's poll has him up 12.  Trust me, I'm from Minnesota, Bush will not win here.
Oregon:  The only poll I see is from the Oregonian, which has Kerry up by 5 points.

This site essentially shows dead heats in my seven tossups.  This is not the only site I look at, I just mention it because it has the most complete information.

I also think historical data has some relevance.  Iowa and Oregon have not voted Republican for President since 1984, and Minnesota not since 1972.

IA and MN are both trending Rep though. But I essentially agree with your map, you're being a tad too potimistic.

[Gustaf]

thanks it is a good one, more fun to fill in the states too

http://www.grayraven.com/ec

Yeah grayraven is pretty good.  I like it better than Edwards' but not as much as I like Leip's.  

Suck-up! Btw, in 5 minutes is 2004! And they say "where America goes the world follows"... Not this time! I will be waiting for you to catch up! Happy new year everybody!

It is 2004 in about 5 hours here.  and I genuinely do like Leip's better thanthe other ones.

5 hours and 13 minutes until 2004.

I guess we are both on the east coast.  

that is why I have a blue pennsylvania under my name.

That's true.  I guess I just can't put 2 and 2 together.

The two of you are building another pyramid!

And you are contributing, Gustaf!  thanks!

You're welcome!

No problem.

But I insist.

How big do these pyramids get?

It depends on the number of posts.

I don't think that the pyramids get much better than this...see that solid line.

There is always room for improvement.

Not really.  Look closely.

weee

Every time I do this another quote disappears,t hus the pyramids are not improved.

You're right, they don't get any better...

Those were the days...

Nostalgic?

[Gustaf]

This is my new confidence map. Is Kerry even a candidate anymore? I haven't heard much about him in almost a week.



DcPoliticalReport.com has California, Maryland, NY, Wash, Oregon, all within the MOE for Kerry. That's scary you have to admit.

Nonsense. You have to look at the number of polls. And the actual MoE. Any state where the lead is not at least 6%, in most cases 8% or sometimes 10% will be within MoE. If Kerry is consistently between 8 and 14 points ahead, like in CA he's gonna win it easily.

[Gustaf]

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.

That is very far from credible. It's not 1984 by a long-shot. If Bush does well and Kerry doesn't, which could happen, it could be 1988, but with more EVs for Kerry due to reginal polarization.

[Gustaf]

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?

Pretty good...I think Kerry will win Oregon now that Nader looks to be off the ballot.  Other than that, I can't find fault with it.

It's reasonable, the only thing I really disagree with is giving MN to Kerry and not Iowa. I think he'll win Iowa before he wins MN. And Oregon too.

[Gustaf]

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.

Boss Tweed,
   Hi, Mr. Devils fan it's earth here.  Most Philly Democrats are not latte drinking liberals.  In fact a lot are pro-life and pro-Iraq war.  Ther reason Philly votes Dem is because of Jesse Jackson and the big unions.  The suburbs have a mix of union workers and bleeding hearts though.  I don't think those voters will be going Nader.  Maybe someone livingin Society HIll though.  

He didn't say that most were...if one in 10 Gore+Nader votes vote for Nader again, that could be enough.