🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[Mike88]

It's interesting to see any large local shifts compared to last month.

The thing that pops up is that PASOK fell in most rural areas.
I guess that is because this time they did a largerly progressive campaign that was unpopular in rural areas, thus preventing them from overtaking Syriza.

Wasn't probably the low turnout? I mean, if PASOK did a more progressive campaign that would manifest itself in the more urban areas of Athens and Thessaloniki, but in reality PASOK polled badly in these areas, bellow 10% and in some districts even behind KKE.

PASOK will never gain much in Athens no matter how progressive it is, the wounds of the economic crisis are deepest in the cities and they still blame PASOK for that.

The farmers in rural areas where less affected and stuck with PASOK the most, but they hate progressives.

PASOK's strategy this time was flawed, to beat SYRIZA for 2nd place they need to win the  rural areas first, because they are blocked out in urban areas.

Right. I would say that PASOK has probably time on their side. With Syriza still trapped under Tsipras and with little to show for, PASOK can "step by step" represent themselves as the alternative to ND.

I have doubts.

The total of all the right of center parties is around 54%, matching the all time high of 1974.

Before that only in 1961 and 63 elections that were not fair or free did they get a majority of the popular vote.

PASOK getting stuck in a progressive arms race with SYRIZA meant that ex-SYRIZA voters bypassed PASOK for go to ND, while ex-ND voters went even more Right.

Progressivism is uncool in Greece at the moment, the middle of the road has shifted.

I wonder what will happen in Portugal since they are very similar, those Chega numbers might not be a fluke.

Not saying that PASOK should enter in a competition with Syriza on how's more leftwing or not, but, by not having a cause, Syriza could become an empty party with nothing to offer other than Tsipras, and here PASOK could represent the "responsable center-left alternative". Sometimes, if not almost always, voters tend to vote on who's likely to defeat their rival. If in a future election, Tsipras is still around, many left voters could concentrate their votes in PASOK to fight ND. But, this is just ideas of mine. Not sure if they make sense or if they are even possible in Greece's political system.

Regarding Portugal, the Portugal thread is the best place to discuss related issues.

[Mike88]

Mitsotakis was sworn in as PM this morning:

https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1673270838345203713

[Mike88]

Tsipras has resigned from Syriza's leadership:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1674363238467657730

He will not run in the next leadership ballot.

[Mike88]

Now with Tsipras out of the picture, what could be the future of Syriza? Could the possible contenders for the leadership "revive" the party or is this the "end" for the party's aspirations as the main alternative to ND?

[Mike88]

Proposal: I'm considering transforming this thread in a Greek politics and elections thread. There are important political events in the horizon in Greece: The changes in Syriza and its impact in the political system, local elections in the fall and the EP elections next year. Plus, other interesting info and debate regarding Greek politics.

Let me know what you think about this idea.

[Mike88]

Title of thread changed.

[Mike88]

Title of thread changed.

We have municipal and prefecture elections in October, so it will be an electoral thread again pretty soon.

I don't think there is a need, it will be a snoozefest and their power is currently very limited.

Some local "governor" races like North Aegean, Western Macedonia, or Western Greece might go for independent candidates.

The Mayorality of Athens might switch hands due to the local unpopularity of Mitsotakis's nephew who is the Mayor (he ruined the main avenue in the city center in an expensive vanity project), but the opposition has no popular candidate to rally around (story of their life).

Apart from that no change is forecast and those elections aren't really considered serious given the centralization of power.

It's still a relevant electoral event. In 2019, ND won a landslide, around 47% of the votes and Syriza polled bellow 10%. It will be interesting to see how they will perform and if PASOK is able to recover. Also, don't forget the Syriza leadership ballot.

Which main avenue in Athens had a renovation?

[Mike88]

4 candidates, so far, announced their candidacy for Syriza's leadership:

- Efi Achtsioglou, former Labour minister (2016-19) and MP for Athens B2;
- Euclid Tsakalotos, former Finance minister (2015-19) and MP for Athens B1;
- Stefanos Tzoumakas, Syriza member; Former minister in PASOK governments (1986-98);
- Nikos Pappas, former Digital Policy minister (2016-19) and MP for Athens B3;

- Pavlos Polakis, former Health minister (2015-19) announced his candidacy earlier this week but withdrew from the race because of his disagreement with the ballot timetable.

Info from Greece Elects: https://twitter.com/GreeceElects

[Mike88]

Aftermath of the tragic Greek wildfires:

Notis Mitarakis, Citizen Protection and Migrations Minister, has resigned from cabinet after it was revealed he didn't call off his summer holiday while several parts of the Greek territory were engulfed in flames. PM Mitsotakis has accepted his resignation and picked Yannis Oikonomou, former government spokesperson, as the new minister.

[Mike88]

It's always good when trash takes itself out.

[Mike88]

How can ND "take" those Spartan seats? If the party is banned, the MPs become Independents, right?

[Mike88]

Title with new date changed.

[Mike88]

Kasselakis is leading an opinion poll according to the news, no idea of its validity.

Given that he’s…not your traditional Syriza politician (to say the least) - does this increase the chance of an accord of sorts with PASOK? Or is that still politically impossible?

I believe that if no one reaches a majority, a runoff will be held. In the same poll, a runoff projection shows basically a tie between Kasselakis and Achtsioglou, 45% for Kasselakis and 44% for Achtsioglou.

Landslide Lyndon and Oldtimer can answer it better, but I get the feeling that Kasselakis is somewhat of a "facade" in order for Tsipras to still control de facto the party. So, deals with PASOK are probably off the table as PASOK goal is to surpass Syriza.

[Mike88]

Interesting. I really though that Kasselakis had Tsipras backing, and his very late entering to the race was weird. I know that he worked at Goldman Sachs and so on, but still. We'll see who wins tomorrow.

Also, 78-hour work week?? What the...!? 15,6 hours of labour per day? How does that even work?

[Mike88]

Anyway, Syriza's leadership ballot is underway. It seems that turnout is quite high with queues forming at polling stations.

Polls close in about 6 hours. (8pm local time)

[Mike88]

Turnout update:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1703364921126179321

[Mike88]

Syriza leadership election: Polls will remain open one more hour, until 9pm local time, due to the high turnout:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1703447484150735249

[Mike88]

By 7:30pm, local time, around 130,500 ballots had been cast, with a further 1,100 ballots from abroad.

First results are expected by 11pm.

[Mike88]

The results with 90% of the vote in:

Ο Στέφανος Κασσελάκης έλαβε το 45,47% και 51.615 ψήφους
Η Έφη Αχτσιόγλου έλαβε το 36,21% και 41.098 ψήφους
Ο Νίκος Παππάς έλαβε το 8,64% και 9.804 ψήφους
Ο Ευκλείδης Τσακαλώτος έλαβε το 8,4% και 9.533 ψήφους
Ο Στέφανος Τζουμάκας έλαβε το 1,28% και 1.457 ψήφους

2nd round between Kaselakis and Achtsioglou.

If Kasselakis had won from the 1st round a SYRIZA split would have been difficult, now it looks unavoidable.

Why would it split?

[Mike88]

Final results of the Syriza 1st round leadership ballot:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1703812357770608817

A runoff will be held next sunday, 24 September, between Kasselakis and Achtsioglou.

[Mike88]

The polls also show a KKE surge. Hardcore Syriza voters voting Communist?

[Mike88]

It's not the first time a Calatrava work falls to pieces or has tons of missing money in other countries:

https://theculturetrip.com/europe/spain/articles/santiago-calatrava-architectures-biggest-scandal

https://nypost.com/2018/04/07/feds-probe-80m-construction-scandal-at-church-wrecked-on-9-11/

Calatrava's Orient train station in Lisbon is also subject to a tense debate:

https://twitter.com/saulescritor/status/1648395110160248833

Even though it is very photogenic and pleasant to the eye, those who use the station say that it's very uncomfortable. In the summer, the glass from the "steel palm trees" warms so much that the station feels like an oven. And in the winter, as there are no side protections, the wind throws the rain against passengers waiting at the platforms.

[Mike88]

The first round of the local elections is set for this Sunday, 8 October. The second round is one week from now, 15 October. Some polls of some of the races:

Athens city: (Population 643,000)
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1709621906981175578

Thessaloniki city: (Population 319,000)
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1709270956986785960

Attica region: (Population 3,800,000)
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1709591707921137838

Peloponnese region: (Population 582,000)
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1710279661278622178

South Aegean region: (Population 309,000)
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1709279479225344185

[Mike88]

Polls opened at 7am local time and close at 7pm, in around 4 hours from now.

At midday, turnout stood at 14.5%.

[Mike88]

At 5:30pm, turnout stood at 44.6%.