CT Senate predictions

[Sam Spade]

I placed Lamont's chances at winning the primary at 30%-35% earlier and now I'm up to 35%-40%.  Simple fact is that he's telegenic, has tons of money to spend, an angry Democratic base and Lieberman's campaign so far has been pathetic.

Problem is that if Lieberman loses, he will most likely run as an independent and beat Lamont, as his support plus strong Republican support will likely trump the leftists.

However, there are some big-time misconceptions that are going on here that are just wrong.  Connecticut is not that left-wing of a state, especially not on economic issues (social issues, it's becoming more and more so, though less than Vermont and New York).  Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Relevant election statute is here:

http://www.cga.ct.gov/2005/pub/Chap153.htm

Key part:

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Obviously category 1 is a larger number than category 2, and the lesser applies, so the 7,500 figure applies to a nominating petition.

[Sam Spade]

Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Very true, I didn't think the requirment was so high. What a lot of people fail to realize about Lieberman in the independent scenario is that he wouldn't be just any old independent candidate. Unlike the average independent candidate Lieberman has an entire brand of Democrat on his side that will be behind him until the end. I would give him 2 days to collect the signatures he needs to make the ballot.

Well, he has to turn them in on August 9, one day after the primaries, so he doesn't really have two days to plan. 

[Sam Spade]

I want someone to explain why Lamont's chances are much less than Toomey's.

Toomey probably would've won had it not have been for the electability issue, the fear that he would lose the general. That's not an issue here since there's no way the Republicans can win this seat.

I think it is very fair to say that if it is Lamont vs. Generic Republican that Lamont would probably win the race and definitely would stand a much better chance than Toomey.  Considering the Republican candidate is a nothing, Lamont's chance of winning one-on-one is high.

However, the big difference here is the simple likelihood that Lieberman runs as an Indy in the general election if he loses the primary.  In that scenario, Lamont will find it extremely difficult, if not impossible to win.

That's the reason why the smartest Democratic member of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, is saying that he would support Lieberman were he to run as an Indy.  He knows that Lieberman would win in that case and wants Lieberman to stay in the Democratic caucus past 2006 elections.