Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[warandwar]

Rumor of breaking news: NAFTA renegotiation finalized, dairy barriers to be lowered.


Political fallout?

Probably hurts the Lib's, since they are the incumbent government who 'allowed this to happen,' despite having little to no influence over negotiations. Lisée for example earlier today argued that the PLQ oversaw another sacrifice of Quebec for the good of Ontario.

I wonder if there's any organized political movement in Quebec that has made this it's defining issue..

[VPH]

Wish I could give a dispatch on the ground, but I'm volunteering with David Birnbaum, who will win 80%+ of the vote (most PLQ riding in the whole province). The mood here is a restrained optimism about the overall result, which is interesting...

[Oryxslayer]

Wish I could give a dispatch on the ground, but I'm volunteering with David Birnbaum, who will win 80%+ of the vote (most PLQ riding in the whole province). The mood here is a restrained optimism about the overall result, which is interesting...

Interesting since the libs really are locked out of govt formation this time around, its really just a contest of CAQ minority or majority. But Montreal is a PLQ bubble, so what your seeing probably doesn't match the rest of the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

[VPH]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

Hence what I mean by not having a good read on the ground. I live in a QS stronghold (Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques) and spent my day in the place where it's weird and crazy rare not to be PLQ. Will be at the PLQ party, which is held at New City Gas, a huge venue/club in Griffintown.

[VPH]

A few conscriptions I will be watching closely tonight:

Rosemont: Located in the middle of Montreal, this riding is a QS-PQ tossup. PQ leader Jean-Francois Lisee is the incumbent; his loss would spell certain doom for the PQ. Honestly, this riding will tell us about how much leftist QS has surged in Montreal and how PQ has tanked.

Pointe-Aux-Trembles & Bourget: Can CAQ break through on the Island of Montreal? East end has always been one of their stronger places in MTL-heavily Francophone, working-middle class, suburban. Used to be the most nationalist area in town too. These will both be close, unless the floor totally falls out on the PQ.

Sherbrooke: Did somebody say... FOUR-WAY TOSSUP??? Sherbrooke is a small city downtown riding in Estrie with a large university population. This is Jean Charest's old riding, and it's demographically a mix. A good bellwether for who is surging tonight. Lots of students, some Anglophones, a decent professional community.

Jean-Lesage: Downtown Quebec City. One of a few real 3-way races in the province. Currently held by the PLQ, QS saw an opportunity here nominating former Option Nationale (newly merged into QS) leader Sol Zanetti. Can the PLQ hang onto more than one seat in Quebec City? Will QS be able to win Taschereau and Jean-Lesage? Will CAQ pick up this urban riding?

Jonquière: This industrial part of Saguenay used to be a hub for nationalism. 71% voted to separate in 1995. Nowadays, with an economy transitioning to tech/energy industry, separation has faded as an issue and people are more concerned with growing business. This is a PQ/CAQ tossup to keep an eye on. It's similar to a number of other ridings up north.

Orford: Rural riding straddling the American border. PLQ has historically done well here, but the Anglo population continues to decline and this region is where CAQ support has grown. Older population, an economy based on tourism and ag, never really nationalist. Gonna be similar to a few of the other US border ridings. Maybe the supply management issue will have an impact here.

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue: Rural mining area that historically fluctuated between PQ and PLQ. Strangely looks like it could be in play for PQ, CAQ, and QS. QS membership numbers tripled here in the last few weeks, and their exciting young candidate could gain traction. This might be QS' only good performance in a rural riding. Will show the decline of the PLQ in many rural Franco areas too.

Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata & Côte-du-Sud: Two manufacturing and ag-based ridings who have faced workforce shortages. Immigration is a weird, nuanced topic in these areas. CAQ and PLQ will throw down here and the results will be telling of what the final result will be. If CAQ is cruising to a majority, I expect them to win both of these. If a minority, it will be close.

The kinda wild card is whether NAFTA talks will impact the vote. Saw a report earlier on CTV that 18% of eligible voters turned out early, and they interviewed a few people in one of the US border ridings with a high dairy concentration and most people didn't care. Obviously anecdotal.

[DC Al Fine]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

Hence what I mean by not having a good read on the ground. I live in a QS stronghold (Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques) and spent my day in the place where it's weird and crazy rare not to be PLQ. Will be at the PLQ party, which is held at New City Gas, a huge venue/club in Griffintown.

Why did you volunteer in a safe seat when there are contested ones nearby?

[Oryxslayer]

snip

Great list! I would add Huntingdon to this count of seats to watch (another southern Border seat). I also think that a CAQ majority probably has to go through at least one of Labelle/Joliette - two seats the PQ have really tried to save this campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/pozappaTVA/status/1046896815054843904

CBC results here. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/qcvotes/results/

[jaichind]

Any link to live stream ?  I assume results comes in around 8pm EST ?

[VPH]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

Hence what I mean by not having a good read on the ground. I live in a QS stronghold (Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques) and spent my day in the place where it's weird and crazy rare not to be PLQ. Will be at the PLQ party, which is held at New City Gas, a huge venue/club in Griffintown.

Why did you volunteer in a safe seat when there are contested ones nearby?

I personally know David Birnbaum and was asked to help out! Thing is, Laurier-Dorion and maybe maybe Maurice Richard aside there aren’t too many ridings on the island where the PLQ is in a competitive race. And I didn’t feel like going out to Laval.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1046904983453483008

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1046895154915762176

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction from this morning was tossup/tied pop vote, CAQ majority of 65-70. Probably going to update that pop vote prediction to CAQ lead of 1-2.

[136or142]

My rough prediction, numbers rounded to '0'

CAQ: 60
Liberals: 40
P.Q: 10
QS: 10

(I know there are 125 ridings)

[136or142]

Results have started to come in.  LET"S GET READY TO RUUUUUMBLE! (I love Michael Buffer)

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ leading bigly so far.

[ON Progressive]

CTV has declared a CAQ victory. Nothing on minority or majority government.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Results so far:

CAQ 34 seats - 39% vote
PLQ  14 - 29.3%
PQ - 5 - 17.6%
QS - 3 - 11%

[Oryxslayer]

CAQ doing surprisingly well on Laval.

[136or142]

Is it a surprise to see the CAQ doing welll in Argenteuil , or the rural parts of  the Gatineau region?

[Oryxslayer]

Already projected CAQ govt.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks at map. Looks at 2014 map. Oh my.

[DC Al Fine]

CAQ on the board on the Island of Montreal. Lisee trailing.

[136or142]

Is it still the case that the heavy federalist vote comes in later on? (As per the 1995 referendum.)

[ON Progressive]

I wonder what's going on in Montmorency? The non-affiliated Jean-François Simard is leading the CAQ Jean-François Simard!