Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[DC Al Fine]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

[Tintrlvr]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

Did the PLQ know he was leaking during the campaign? Is CAQ going to take him in or was this just career suicide? (He seems, as a CAQ MLA, about as likely as David Emerson was to win reelection regardless, though.)

[MaxQue]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

Did the PLQ know he was leaking during the campaign? Is CAQ going to take him in or was this just career suicide? (He seems, as a CAQ MLA, about as likely as David Emerson was to win reelection regardless, though.)

The leak happened in November 2016, it was about potential corruption by a wealthy Liberal businessman. The facy he leaked got known during the last week of the campaign.

It was neither, he is a former policeman and I think he decided his mission was to fight corruption, no matter where it was.

[Tintrlvr]

Finally (?), the PQ will have 10 seats, as they gained Gaspé in a recount (went from Liberal +132 to PQ +41). Seems like a big shift, but there was various irregularities, like the infamous Box 61, who reported all its votes as Liberal, which was improbable.

Recount in Îles-de-la-Madeleine went from PQ+18 to PQ+15.

PQ asked a recount in Ungava (CAQ+44), the judge didn't rule yet on whether it will happen.

Standings are now:
CAQ 74
PLQ 29 (-3)
PQ 10 (+1)
QS 10
Ind 1 (+1, Guy Ouellette (Chomedey) having been expelled from Liberals for leaking information to PQ and CAQ)
Vacant 1 (+1, Couillard)

Lol re Oullette

That's David Emerson speed for someone to leave their party.

Did the PLQ know he was leaking during the campaign? Is CAQ going to take him in or was this just career suicide? (He seems, as a CAQ MLA, about as likely as David Emerson was to win reelection regardless, though.)

The leak happened in November 2016, it was about potential corruption by a wealthy Liberal businessman. The facy he leaked got known during the last week of the campaign.

It was neither, he is a former policeman and I think he decided his mission was to fight corruption, no matter where it was.

Ah. Maybe he'll stick around as a principled independent, then.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have the regional breakdown.  If one has a spreadsheet of ridings I can put one together.  Also anyone able to do a map, I would be interested in particular in seeing which ridings were won with over 50%.  It looks like with CAQ, they largely got only pluralities in Capitale Nationale and suburbs of Montreal, but over 50% in rural areas between Montreal and Quebec City and south of Quebec City, sort of like Ontario as PCs won most of the 905 belt, but only with a plurality (save the York Region which they did get over 50%) whereas got over 50% in most rural ridings in Southern Ontario.  In BC, also BC Liberals cracked the 50% in relatively few Lower Mainland ridings, but did in most Interior ones so it seems we are seeing a pattern of parties on the right doing poorly in urban areas, winning pluralities in suburbs, while only getting over 50% in rural areas.

[mileslunn]

Here it gives some regions: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_g%C3%A9n%C3%A9rales_qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9coises_de_2018, I will work on the remainder and update throughout the day.

Chaudiere-Appalaches:

CAQ: 58.9%
PLQ: 18.9%
QS: 9.3%
PQ 8.1%

Cote Nord:

PQ: 38.1%
CAQ: 33.7%
PLQ: 15.4%
QS: 11.3%

Gaspésie-Iles de la Madeleine

PQ: 36.6%
PLQ: 30.5%
CAQ: 16.3%
QS: 14.3%

Lanaudiere:

CAQ: 47.3%
PQ: 26.7%
QS: 13.8%
PLQ: 9.4%

Laval:

PLQ: 37.1%
CAQ: 32.3%
PQ: 13.1%
QS: 10.5%

Monteregie:

CAQ: 42.4%
PLQ: 20.6%
PQ: 18.2%
QS: 14.2%

Isle de Montreal

PLQ: 42.9%
QS: 21.9%
CAQ: 17%
PQ: 12%

Quebec outside Montreal

CAQ: 42.2%
PLQ: 20.5%
PQ: 18.2%
QS: 14.7%

[JG]

Looking at those numbers by regions make me think that the poll showing that the Liberals only got 12% of the francophone vote just can't be true.

[mileslunn]

Looking at those numbers by regions make me think that the poll showing that the Liberals only got 12% of the francophone vote just can't be true.

Probably not quite that low, but I am guessing mid to high teens.  There were however many ridings without incumbents where they got in single digits, tended to do a bit better in heavily Francophone ones with an incumbent.

[Republican Left]

Did moderate-conservatives in Quebec basically luck out in that the "left" was split (maybe not so much the QLP but between QS/PQ)? I understand things are more nuanced and complicated than that but is that one somewhat accurate interpretation of the election? Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

[Hatman 🍁]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

[Republican Left]

Oh yeah, the QLP is considered "right" excuse me about that. I was speaking from a US perspective but I understand that in Canada, some Liberals are considered "right of center" at least when it comes to economic issues (business liberals/neoliberals). Pardon about that.

[mileslunn]

Oh yeah, the QLP is considered "right" excuse me about that. I was speaking from a US perspective but I understand that in Canada, some Liberals are considered "right of center" at least when it comes to economic issues (business liberals/neoliberals). Pardon about that.

It depends on province.  The federal Liberals, Ontario Liberals, and NB Liberals at the moment are centre-left; Prairie Liberal parties, and other Atlantic provinces are more centrist although some might characterize NS Liberals or Newfoundland Liberals as centre-right.  Quebec Liberals and especially BC Liberals are centre-right.  Liberals in most cases are an opportunist party and go where they think the most votes are so it varies by province and even election.  BC Liberals are the one exception which have since 1996 been firmly on the centre-right.

[mileslunn]

Did moderate-conservatives in Quebec basically luck out in that the "left" was split (maybe not so much the QLP but between QS/PQ)? I understand things are more nuanced and complicated than that but is that one somewhat accurate interpretation of the election? Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Unlike Ontario where one could argue Ford would have not been premier under a different system, Legault would have been premier no matter what system was used.  For PLQ supporters, most would have CAQ as second choice or no second choice as QS and PQ are both separatist making them a non-option.  Of PQ supporters, almost none would have PLQ as second choice, but would be split between QS and CAQ as second choice and CAQ has a much stronger starting point.  True most QS supporters would have PQ as second choice, but QS + PQ was still less than CAQ.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

[Oryxslayer]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

Want a shapefile? BTW, am I correct in thinking Quebec hasn't put out poll-by-poll results yet?

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

Want a shapefile? BTW, am I correct in thinking Quebec hasn't put out poll-by-poll results yet?

Anything where I can colour them in using MS Paint works.  Poll by poll won't be out until finalized, much like federally as opposed to Ontario where it came out on election night.

[Oryxslayer]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

Want a shapefile? BTW, am I correct in thinking Quebec hasn't put out poll-by-poll results yet?

Anything where I can colour them in using MS Paint works.  Poll by poll won't be out until finalized, much like federally as opposed to Ontario where it came out on election night.

Then a shapefile won't work - that requires GIS.

[politicallefty]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

[DC Al Fine]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

It's a mixed bag. The prog utopia idea is silly, but Quebec does have probably the most extensive social safety net in the country and relatively progressive taxation.

[politicallefty]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

It's a mixed bag. The prog utopia idea is silly, but Quebec does have probably the most extensive social safety net in the country and relatively progressive taxation.

I agree entirely. Quebec may have some progressive ideals, but that does not mean it has progressive ideals for everyone.

[mileslunn]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

Up until this election, it was tough to really gage where Quebecers stood on the political spectrum.  Generally if a federalist, you voted PLQ no matter where you stood on the political spectrum while if a separatist you voted PQ regardless of where you stood on the spectrum.  True PQ was seen as a centre-left and PLQ as centrist but both were broad coalitions more united on where they stood in terms of Quebec being in Canada or not.  Somewhat akin to Northern Ireland as although DUP and UUP are on the right while Sinn Fein and SD&L are on the left, it seems people vote more along sectarian lines as I am sure Northern Ireland has some right wing Catholics and left wing Protestants.  2018 was probably the first election where voting by ideology as opposed to separatism vs. federalism dominated although it does seem amongst Anglophones, they pretty much went overwhelmingly PLQ regardless of where they stood on the political spectrum, but amongst Francophones you got a clearer picture.

[Tintrlvr]

Could a right-of-center party win in Quebec (particularly in something like a runoff) or would a lot of things have to change for that to happen?

Of course! Considering 60% of Quebecers just voted for a right of centre party.

I noted several pages back that Quebec was not the left-wing paradise some believed it to be and was kind of cast aside. I don't think I'm wrong in believing that.

Up until this election, it was tough to really gage where Quebecers stood on the political spectrum.  Generally if a federalist, you voted PLQ no matter where you stood on the political spectrum while if a separatist you voted PQ regardless of where you stood on the spectrum.  True PQ was seen as a centre-left and PLQ as centrist but both were broad coalitions more united on where they stood in terms of Quebec being in Canada or not.  Somewhat akin to Northern Ireland as although DUP and UUP are on the right while Sinn Fein and SD&L are on the left, it seems people vote more along sectarian lines as I am sure Northern Ireland has some right wing Catholics and left wing Protestants.  2018 was probably the first election where voting by ideology as opposed to separatism vs. federalism dominated although it does seem amongst Anglophones, they pretty much went overwhelmingly PLQ regardless of where they stood on the political spectrum, but amongst Francophones you got a clearer picture.

I think it's still a stretch to think of this election as being on "ideological" grounds. (Some rambling follows, not sure this all makes sense but glad to discuss.)

The problem is that the PQ doesn't stand for anything except separatism (especially in the minds of the public), so voting for them is only really an option if you want to vote for independence. Given the waning support for independence, their vote declined, but that doesn't really represent an ideological shift other than on the independence-no independence axis (specifically excluding federalism there since the CAQ is clearly a nationalist party even if not associated with independence). Even though CAQ is clearly to their right, voters switched from the PQ to CAQ not out of an actual shift to the right but because they were done with explicitly pro-independence parties.

Furthermore, while the QS is clearly on the left, the QS is still perceived as too far on the left to break through to being a contender to actually form government just yet, which is probably a fair perception on the part of voters; the QS is much further on the left than the CAQ is on the right and still consists largely of student radicals at the organizational level, though this is changing. So, yes, voters switched from the PQ to the QS in part on ideological grounds, but the failure of the QS to be a serious contender for government doesn't say anything about Quebec ideologically (except that it doesn't consist primarily of student radicals, hardly a surprise to anyone). And I would also say that part of the shift is also tactical unwind as voters who previously tactically voted PQ (but, while not being opposed to independence, didn't consider independence all that important) as the "best" party of the serious choices switched away once the PQ was no longer a serious contender for government.

The movement from the PLQ to the CAQ is actually on nationalist rather than ideological grounds: nearly all Francophone voters are Quebec nationalist to some degree, just a lot of them don't like independence or the disturbances that it is perceived to bring and were always waiting for a nationalist party that wasn't pro-independence to come along and be a serious contender for government, especially in an environment where independence isn't perceived to be a threat. So this was a natural shift for a circumstance where the polarization isn't independence-no independence but is still fundamentally on nationalist grounds (just that there is a natural nationalist majority and unless the nationalist vote splinters along independence or ideological lines, the federalists can't win).

The most ideological shift is probably the small PLQ to QS shift (though quite prominent in a few ridings), where federalist left-wingers voted for a nationalist left-wing party over a federalist centrist/center-right party for fundamentally ideological reasons. But PLQ->QS switchers are maybe 2-3% of the vote, total, province-wide.

[Oryxslayer]

The thing that seems to be missing from this debate about just how realigning was the election is actual partisan data. Was this election truly a shift right, or were natural attitudes just finally manifesting themselves? Or was it simply a case that without the separatism issue, the PLQ/PQ were simply outdated vehicles for government?

What we need is a good poll that measures the provinces opinions on a left-right spectrum. In the past this was the Independence question, since that was the relevant spectrum. We further can't really use any past elections as basis for judging this: all previous local elections were under the PQ-PLQ Separatist-Federalist axis for two huge-tent parties, and all federal elections since the demise of the BQ have been about parties opposing separatism: the Libs and NDP. All this citing of old ideologies forgets that people and constituencies change, and the past ~35 years have obscured that ideological change behind the Independence debate.

[lilTommy]

LeDevoir has an interactive Poll-by-poll results:
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/539627/cartographique-de-la-victoire-caquiste?fbclid=IwAR0RbPLG_JdZo9hUAP9eBf1RvJaUZesVBvULl5zCctcMISHYTjiWuDvNdxk

And election-atlas has their maps updated to:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/qc/

[Tintrlvr]

LeDevoir has an interactive Poll-by-poll results:
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/539627/cartographique-de-la-victoire-caquiste?fbclid=IwAR0RbPLG_JdZo9hUAP9eBf1RvJaUZesVBvULl5zCctcMISHYTjiWuDvNdxk

And election-atlas has their maps updated to:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/qc/

The stark boundary formed by the railroad tracks in Laurier-Dorion continues to be dramatic. Fontecilla got demolished south of the tracks despite a solid victory across the entire riding.