MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same users think Rs can win MN and Klobuchar is up in 2024/ she would retire after the midterm and go to Cabinet if she feels Rs have a chance and they don't in MN

[beesley]

Safe D with Lindell (and probably anyway)

[Duke of York]

Safe D with Lindell (and probably anyway)

If Republicans couldn't win the governorship in MN in 2010 or 2014 its unlikely they can win next year.

[BabyAlligator]

Even Red Eagle Politics (conservative right winger pro Trump youtuber) says Mike Lindell and Lin Wood belong in an asylum.

[Real Texan Politics]

Even Red Eagle Politics (conservative right winger pro Trump youtuber) says Mike Lindell and Lin Wood belong in an asylum.

Technically that was me who brought up Mike Lindell belonging in an asylum in REP's stream last night and he agreed with me

[Schiff for Senate]

As of right now, my guess is that Walz wins by a margin between Clinton's in 2016 and Biden's in 2020. I don't think claims of election fraud will win Lindell back any votes in the Minneapolis/St. Paul suburbs. On the other hand 2022 is expected to be a good GOP year (however, Lindell being on the ballot, which may be the case, will likely boost turnout for Walz in the suburbs) so I'd say Walz wins, by about 5-6% or so, perhaps more if he's lucky but likely not by Biden's margin in 2020.

[Calthrina950]

If Lindell is the nominee, this race is Safe D. It's no worse than Likely D under any other matchup. Walz would beat Lindell by at least low to mid double digits, and would absolutely destroy him in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Moreover, I think the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial will be of benefit to Walz and to Keith Ellison next year.

[SnowLabrador]

If Lindell is the nominee, this race is Safe D. It's no worse than Likely D under any other matchup. Walz would beat Lindell by at least low to mid double digits, and would absolutely destroy him in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Moreover, I think the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial will be of benefit to Walz and to Keith Ellison next year.

I don't think Lindell would do that much worse than a generic R. How many people would vote for a generic R, but not Lindell?

[Lognog]

If Lindell is the nominee, this race is Safe D. It's no worse than Likely D under any other matchup. Walz would beat Lindell by at least low to mid double digits, and would absolutely destroy him in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Moreover, I think the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial will be of benefit to Walz and to Keith Ellison next year.

I don't think Lindell would do that much worse than a generic R. How many people would vote for a generic R, but not Lindell?

Look up his interview with Jordan Clepper

[Duke of York]

hasn't Lindell already said he isn't running?

[Calthrina950]

If Lindell is the nominee, this race is Safe D. It's no worse than Likely D under any other matchup. Walz would beat Lindell by at least low to mid double digits, and would absolutely destroy him in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Moreover, I think the outcome of the Derek Chauvin trial will be of benefit to Walz and to Keith Ellison next year.

I don't think Lindell would do that much worse than a generic R. How many people would vote for a generic R, but not Lindell?

I could see Generic R lose by high single digits, while Lindell would lose by low to mid double digits.

[Real Texan Politics]

hasn't Lindell already said he isn't running?

Yes, he has confirmed he is not running.

[LiberalDem19]

As of right now, my guess is that Walz wins by a margin between Clinton's in 2016 and Biden's in 2020. I don't think claims of election fraud will win Lindell back any votes in the Minneapolis/St. Paul suburbs. On the other hand 2022 is expected to be a good GOP year (however, Lindell being on the ballot, which may be the case, will likely boost turnout for Walz in the suburbs) so I'd say Walz wins, by about 5-6% or so, perhaps more if he's lucky but likely not by Biden's margin in 2020.

I think Walz does better in Greater MN than Biden by virtue of being their guy

[Minnesota Mike]

Just found this thread, thanks for the laughs.

I will just ignore the Pillow guy and just give my way to early thoughts on the race in general. Minnesota is turning in to a poor mans Illinois with Hennepin and Ramsey counties combined equaling Cook county with the suburbs tilting blue. If Republicans can't find a way to knock Walz down into the low 60's in Hennepin/Ramsey then it makes no difference what a Republican does outstate as there just are not enough available votes outside the Twin Cities metro.  For example Trump ran very strong in rural Minnesota, carrying 74 of the 87 counties statewide by a margin of 314,000 votes in those counties. Biden netted 327,000 from Hennepin county alone and I think Walz runs better than Biden in rural MN since that is home turf.

As I do in almost every MN thread I will leave you with a couple facts. No Republican has won statewide since T-Paw in 2006 and no Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since Liberal Republican Arne Carlson in  1994.

[Lognog]

Just found this thread, thanks for the laughs.

I will just ignore the Pillow guy and just give my way to early thoughts on the race in general. Minnesota is turning in to a poor mans Illinois with Hennepin and Ramsey counties combined equaling Cook county with the suburbs tilting blue. If Republicans can't find a way to knock Walz down into the low 60's in Hennepin/Ramsey then it makes no difference what a Republican does outstate as there just are not enough available votes outside the Twin Cities metro.  For example Trump ran very strong in rural Minnesota, carrying 74 of the 87 counties statewide by a margin of 314,000 votes in those counties. Biden netted 327,000 from Hennepin county alone and I think Walz runs better than Biden in rural MN since that is home turf.

As I do in almost every MN thread I will leave you with a couple facts. No Republican has won statewide since T-Paw in 2006 and no Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since Liberal Republican Arne Carlson in  1994.

I don't think its talked about enough that T-paw lost the primary in 2018. He still wouldn't have won but he could have helped the GOP in the statewide races... maybe even making Ellison's race closer

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Just found this thread, thanks for the laughs.

I will just ignore the Pillow guy and just give my way to early thoughts on the race in general. Minnesota is turning in to a poor mans Illinois with Hennepin and Ramsey counties combined equaling Cook county with the suburbs tilting blue. If Republicans can't find a way to knock Walz down into the low 60's in Hennepin/Ramsey then it makes no difference what a Republican does outstate as there just are not enough available votes outside the Twin Cities metro.  For example Trump ran very strong in rural Minnesota, carrying 74 of the 87 counties statewide by a margin of 314,000 votes in those counties. Biden netted 327,000 from Hennepin county alone and I think Walz runs better than Biden in rural MN since that is home turf.

As I do in almost every MN thread I will leave you with a couple facts. No Republican has won statewide since T-Paw in 2006 and no Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since Liberal Republican Arne Carlson in  1994.

I don't think its talked about enough that T-paw lost the primary in 2018. He still wouldn't have won but he could have helped the GOP in the statewide races... maybe even making Ellison's race closer

It wasn’t even a narrow loss, it was damn near 10 points and he only won 1 congressional district

[Girlytree]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

[Minnesota Mike]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

It is beyond ugly. A major republican donor, Anton Lazzaro, was arrested for 6 counts of sex trafficking. Lazzaro also happens to be good friends with GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, he attended her wedding to MN-01 congressman Jim Hagedorn and cohosted a podcast with her. Carnahan has also been accused of ignoring sexual harassment complaints, belittling and demeaning subordinates(some is on audio) especially young women, and of financial improprieties (She personally gets 10% of all money donated to the MN GOP). Oh and to top it off there audio floating around the internet of a drunken Carnahan at the RNC winter meetings (on Jan 6 no less) saying  that her husband, who has kidney cancer, will be dead in two years so oh well.

Oh and just to bring this back to Mike Lindell, Carnahan all but endorsed him last year.

[Torrain]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

It is beyond ugly. A major republican donor, Anton Lazzaro, was arrested for 6 counts of sex trafficking. Lazzaro also happens to be good friends with GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, he attended her wedding to MN-01 congressman Jim Hagedorn and cohosted a podcast with her. Carnahan has also been accused of ignoring sexual harassment complaints, belittling and demeaning subordinates(some is on audio) especially young women, and of financial improprieties (She personally gets 10% of all money donated to the MN GOP). Oh and to top it off there audio floating around the internet of a drunken Carnahan at the RNC winter meetings (on Jan 6 no less) saying  that her husband, who has kidney cancer, will be dead in two years so oh well.

Oh and just to bring this back to Mike Lindell, Carnahan all but endorsed him last year.

Wow. I don't have any words. This whole situation is just:

[Mr. Smith]

MN GOP continue to contest FL Dems No. 567891011...moving on.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

It is beyond ugly. A major republican donor, Anton Lazzaro, was arrested for 6 counts of sex trafficking. Lazzaro also happens to be good friends with GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, he attended her wedding to MN-01 congressman Jim Hagedorn and cohosted a podcast with her. Carnahan has also been accused of ignoring sexual harassment complaints, belittling and demeaning subordinates(some is on audio) especially young women, and of financial improprieties (She personally gets 10% of all money donated to the MN GOP). Oh and to top it off there audio floating around the internet of a drunken Carnahan at the RNC winter meetings (on Jan 6 no less) saying  that her husband, who has kidney cancer, will be dead in two years so oh well.

Oh and just to bring this back to Mike Lindell, Carnahan all but endorsed him last year.

Will Hagedorn's obvious close ties here hurt his chances of re-election?

[Minnesota Mike]

Haven’t seen anyone else talking about it, but the state GOP is in shambles due to sexual assault scandals.

It is beyond ugly. A major republican donor, Anton Lazzaro, was arrested for 6 counts of sex trafficking. Lazzaro also happens to be good friends with GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, he attended her wedding to MN-01 congressman Jim Hagedorn and cohosted a podcast with her. Carnahan has also been accused of ignoring sexual harassment complaints, belittling and demeaning subordinates(some is on audio) especially young women, and of financial improprieties (She personally gets 10% of all money donated to the MN GOP). Oh and to top it off there audio floating around the internet of a drunken Carnahan at the RNC winter meetings (on Jan 6 no less) saying  that her husband, who has kidney cancer, will be dead in two years so oh well.

Oh and just to bring this back to Mike Lindell, Carnahan all but endorsed him last year.

Will Hagedorn's obvious close ties here hurt his chances of re-election?

Maybe but the bigger question is his health. Hagedorn has stage 4 kidney cancer which only has a 5 year survival rate of 8%. His wife said on a recorded drunken phone call he would be dead in two years.  I wish him the best but the odds appear to be against him.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think he would do worse than Trump, but still manage to get at least 40% of the vote. The number of actual GOP voters who left the party post-1/6 are a lot smaller than the media makes it out to be and even most of those who opposed the attack are probably not going to vote for the Dems, although Lindell's defense of the attack would hurt him with moderate/establishment GOP voters. While not related, an actual Nazi managed to get a 1/4 of the vote in a D+6 district and Minnesota is more Republican than that district. I'm not calling Lindell a Nazi at all, but he would probably do better than most Democrats would hope, but I cannot see a chance for him to win, especially with Minneapolis.  I'd say his ceiling as of now would be around 42% where things stand now, although he could get in the mid 40's if Biden & The Dems are extremely unpopular. In a great year for Dems which seems unlikely but possible, I see him still getting at least in the mid 30's in terms of voter percentage.

[pbrower2a]

Americans have had one crazy entrepreneur in high office, and Donald Trump is a prime warning of the consequences. Minnesota is just too sane for the craziness of My Pillow Guy, .

[Calthrina950]

I think he would do worse than Trump, but still manage to get at least 40% of the vote. The number of actual GOP voters who left the party post-1/6 are a lot smaller than the media makes it out to be and even most of those who opposed the attack are probably not going to vote for the Dems, although Lindell's defense of the attack would hurt him with moderate/establishment GOP voters. While not related, an actual Nazi managed to get a 1/4 of the vote in a D+6 district and Minnesota is more Republican than that district. I'm not calling Lindell a Nazi at all, but he would probably do better than most Democrats would hope, but I cannot see a chance for him to win, especially with Minneapolis.  I'd say his ceiling as of now would be around 42% where things stand now, although he could get in the mid 40's if Biden & The Dems are extremely unpopular. In a great year for Dems which seems unlikely but possible, I see him still getting at least in the mid 30's in terms of voter percentage.

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.