NH senate safe D?

[WD]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

[WD]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

Hogan led Van Hollen by 10 points last fall, even before he got more popular with his COVID handling. This is not a potential race to be taken lightly. Blue states love their “moderate” Republicans. I think Van Hollen would ultimately end up winning, but it would be close.

Hogan seems to have his eyes set on 2024. I'd be surprised if he risks what would basically turn into HI Sen 2012 2.0 by running for Senate.

People forget that Lingle left office in 2010 with approvals in the forties. She wasn’t the popular juggernaut she was in 2006. That’s the difference between her and Hogan, plus the fact that 2022 isn’t a Presidential year.

Hopefully you’re right though and Hogan does have delusions of grandeur and runs a pointless presidential campaign instead to save us the headache of having to spend big in Maryland.

I’m not quite convinced. Once Democrats run ads saying Hogan will be another vote for McConnell his approvals will fall. After 2018, I’m skeptical about Governors winning in states hostile to their national party.