MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[JMT]

A little over a week out, who wins?

I think David Trone narrowly wins. Due to his spending advantage and name recognition, I always viewed him as the frontrunner.

[SnowLabrador]

Trone. Electability is a big issue in this primary since we have to beat Hogan.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I honestly have no idea who will win or if it will be even close or not.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Trone. It just seems like he got out to too big a lead early and the endorsements weren't able to completely close the gap.

[wnwnwn]

Alsobrooks will dominate the black primary vote, but Trone has the rest to win.
In any case, the dem candidate will win in November.

[smoltchanov]

Hope - Trone. May be - not liberal enough for some, but - enough for me. Alsobrooks can easily lose general to Hogan, Trone - not so likely.

[Left Wing]

Hope - Trone. May be - not liberal enough for some, but - enough for me. Alsobrooks can easily lose general to Hogan, Trone - not so likely.

Trone has been campaigning as the more progressive candidate.

[wnwnwn]

It's MD and a federal race, the dem do will win.

[coloradocowboi]

Why would Trone be more inherently likely to win than Alsobrooks? I can’t really think of a compelling reason besides that she’s a black woman. Which I don’t think is the negative folks think it is in Maryland and against Larry Hogan. IIRC his black opponents managed to keep him in the 50s when he has a near 70% approval. If anything, I think a white candidate is riskier.

Trone s*** the bed on this already anyway and probably is gonna lose the primary now

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think both of them will perform within 1% of each other in the general election. If that will make the difference in the race overall...yikes.

[smoltchanov]

Why would Trone be more inherently likely to win than Alsobrooks? I can’t really think of a compelling reason besides that she’s a black woman. Which I don’t think is the negative folks think it is in Maryland and against Larry Hogan. IIRC his black opponents managed to keep him in the 50s when he has a near 70% approval. If anything, I think a white candidate is riskier.

Trone s*** the bed on this already anyway and probably is gonna lose the primary now

In MY opinion exactly because she is a Black woman. BOTH - Black and Woman. That's the reason for few percentage difference, which could be crucial against serious candidate like Hogan (he will, probably, be "the most moderate Republican candidate" this cycle).

[coloradocowboi]

Why would Trone be more inherently likely to win than Alsobrooks? I can’t really think of a compelling reason besides that she’s a black woman. Which I don’t think is the negative folks think it is in Maryland and against Larry Hogan. IIRC his black opponents managed to keep him in the 50s when he has a near 70% approval. If anything, I think a white candidate is riskier.

Trone s*** the bed on this already anyway and probably is gonna lose the primary now

In MY opinion exactly because she is a Black woman. BOTH - Black and Woman. That's the reason for few percentage difference, which could be crucial against serious candidate like Hogan (he will, probably, be "the most moderate Republican candidate" this cycle).

Yeah I disagree. And even if I didn’t I would be really uncomfortable basing my support on that

[smoltchanov]

Why would Trone be more inherently likely to win than Alsobrooks? I can’t really think of a compelling reason besides that she’s a black woman. Which I don’t think is the negative folks think it is in Maryland and against Larry Hogan. IIRC his black opponents managed to keep him in the 50s when he has a near 70% approval. If anything, I think a white candidate is riskier.

Trone s*** the bed on this already anyway and probably is gonna lose the primary now

In MY opinion exactly because she is a Black woman. BOTH - Black and Woman. That's the reason for few percentage difference, which could be crucial against serious candidate like Hogan (he will, probably, be "the most moderate Republican candidate" this cycle).

Yeah I disagree. And even if I didn’t I would be really uncomfortable basing my support on that

Well, such people  - exist. And that's - a factor, which must be taken into consideration. Why give them a reason to vote "the wrong way"

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.   

[President Johnson]

Probably Trone, but I want Alsobrooks to win.

I'm definitely curious how the black vote will break down in the primary.

[Oppo]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.   

His seat was heavily targeted by the NRCC in 2022, I imagine they’d find something on him earlier.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.  

There's literally no reason to think this

Anyway, for better or worse, Trone wins by a hair

[coloradocowboi]

Why would Trone be more inherently likely to win than Alsobrooks? I can’t really think of a compelling reason besides that she’s a black woman. Which I don’t think is the negative folks think it is in Maryland and against Larry Hogan. IIRC his black opponents managed to keep him in the 50s when he has a near 70% approval. If anything, I think a white candidate is riskier.

Trone s*** the bed on this already anyway and probably is gonna lose the primary now

In MY opinion exactly because she is a Black woman. BOTH - Black and Woman. That's the reason for few percentage difference, which could be crucial against serious candidate like Hogan (he will, probably, be "the most moderate Republican candidate" this cycle).

Yeah I disagree. And even if I didn’t I would be really uncomfortable basing my support on that

Well, such people  - exist. And that's - a factor, which must be taken into consideration. Why give them a reason to vote "the wrong way"

Because it’s morally wrong? Because it just perpetuates the problem?

Also if someone is a single issue voter on racism, I doubt they were gonna vote blue anyway. It’s not 1967 lol.

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.  

There's literally no reason to think this

Anyway, for better or worse, Trone wins by a hair

He literally just used an old racially inappropriate word at a campaign event with zero hesitation.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.  

There's literally no reason to think this

Anyway, for better or worse, Trone wins by a hair

He literally just used an old racially inappropriate word at a campaign event with zero hesitation.

He very clearly misspoke during a congressional hearing (it wasn’t a campaign event, not sure where you’re getting that bit from) and accidentally said “jigaboo” instead of “bugaboo.”  It is clear to the point that it’s pretty hard to believe anyone could watch the clip and believe in good-faith that it was anything more than a slip of the tongue.  Respectfully, you seem to be a bit misinformed about what happened. 

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.  

There's literally no reason to think this

Anyway, for better or worse, Trone wins by a hair

He literally just used an old racially inappropriate word at a campaign event with zero hesitation.

He very clearly misspoke during a congressional hearing (it wasn’t a campaign event, not sure where you’re getting that bit from) and accidentally said “jigaboo” instead of “bugaboo.”  It is clear to the point that it’s pretty hard to believe anyone could watch the clip and believe in good-faith that it was anything more than a slip of the tongue.  Respectfully, you seem to be a bit misinformed about what happened. 

It's such an obscure old racist word, too, that it makes me worry more about senior moments than about closet racism.

[smoltchanov]

Why would Trone be more inherently likely to win than Alsobrooks? I can’t really think of a compelling reason besides that she’s a black woman. Which I don’t think is the negative folks think it is in Maryland and against Larry Hogan. IIRC his black opponents managed to keep him in the 50s when he has a near 70% approval. If anything, I think a white candidate is riskier.

Trone s*** the bed on this already anyway and probably is gonna lose the primary now

In MY opinion exactly because she is a Black woman. BOTH - Black and Woman. That's the reason for few percentage difference, which could be crucial against serious candidate like Hogan (he will, probably, be "the most moderate Republican candidate" this cycle).

Yeah I disagree. And even if I didn’t I would be really uncomfortable basing my support on that

Well, such people  - exist. And that's - a factor, which must be taken into consideration. Why give them a reason to vote "the wrong way"

Because it’s morally wrong? Because it just perpetuates the problem?

Also if someone is a single issue voter on racism, I doubt they were gonna vote blue anyway. It’s not 1967 lol.

Of course - not. But they still exist. And - in both parties, though, of course, vast majority is a Republican now. But 2% may be critically important.

P.S. As i have said many times - i am NOT a social justice warrior. For me an election is simply a game, where i want to maximize my chances to win, and nothing more (yes, i am that cynical..). If some factor helps to achieve that goal - i will be for it. If the only way to win in Mississippi would be to run a James Eastland-type Democrat (of 1970th, not 1950th) - i would be for it....

[Bismarck]

My brain says Trone may edge it out but my gut says Alsobrooks.

[Beet]

I get flooded with Trone ads every time I turn on YouTube. It's basically "Vote for me bc I'm a rich white guy and will put this race away against Hogan, whereas Angela Alsobrooks is a scary Black woman with no money who can't keep the Senate Dem", but of course not in so many words.

[coloradocowboi]

I get flooded with Trone ads every time I turn on YouTube. It's basically "Vote for me bc I'm a rich white guy and will put this race away against Hogan, whereas Angela Alsobrooks is a scary Black woman with no money who can't keep the Senate Dem", but of course not in so many words.

And I think this is gonna turn off more voters than smoltch here realizes. Tbh I thought Trone had it until he went all suicidal like this. If there is anywhere to not make this argument it’s Maryland lol