Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[kwabbit]

Yeah, especially Allegheny. I'm wondering if there was some type of voter roll adjustments since 2022 as well; it's hard to square a lot of this, but especially Allegheny gaining like 16K republicans when that county is zooming left.

Allegheny has a very weird voting history as one of the few educated areas in Appalachia. Not too many counties that were as strong for McCain as Bush also swung left from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020. I'm guessing there's still more ancestral Dems to be shed by Democrats than former Republicans to be gained, but nowadays people also choose to be unaffiliated more. That's independent of the voting trends, where Democrats are definitely outpacing registration changes in the educated north hills.

[kwabbit]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

Actually, I think you're right. Garrity is more beatable because she has at least garnered some attention for being a lunatic, whereas DeFoor has been quiet. He may win by virtue of not causing much of a stir during his first term. And Mcclelland has shown that she can at least win a primary statewide while facing tremendous odds--she seems to have a genuinely good ground game.

Exactly- DeFoor is a blank slate which I've said before is good and bad. If Malcolm doesn't define him though, he will get a pass and be a generic option. So he's gotta make sure that doesn't happen. Meanwhile, yeah from what I've seen, Erin seems to actually be a decent candidate, so I hope she takes a page out of Bizarro's playbook and runs with the Garrity-is-bat-sh!t stuff

How much press do these minor row offices get? Garrity seemingly won because the environment was neutral (maybe even tilt GOP down-ballot) and people go GOP = money, DeFoor seemingly won by so much because Ahmad is an exotic last name. Kenyatta seems like he'll have the exact same problem as Ahmad in that regard.