Arizona megathread

[wbrocks67]

Lake is disgusting. I can only hope this helps to sink her campaign.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1587182585557684225

[jamestroll]

Anyone have insights into the Attorney General and Secretary of State races  that Democrats seem to be doing better than the governors races in?

I do think irrespective whether Lake or Hobbs wins or who wins Secretary of State, that if push came to shove and Arizona voted for Biden in 2024 that even Lake and the Republicans would end up certifying the results for Biden.

That would be different from January 6th. It would be a successful over turn of popular will of Arizona. Look how close these races are in a Biden midterm in Arizona. The backlash to the GOP in the next midterm would be very harsh against the GOP if they actually overturned the popular will of voters in Arizona, a marginal state.

I can say the same for Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (borderline contestable).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

Sure. I mean, I agree with you. But here, there is a core chunk of fairly conservative voters like her who would consider Hobbs extreme on policy (e.g., abortion—this person appears to consider it state-sanctioned murder…) but are still entertaining voting for her. That’s huge. I just see recurring blips of disgruntled Rs like her really struggling this election and I’m trying to read between the lines and empathize with them.

My sense is they need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a D vote. And I don’t blame them — it would be really difficult and out of character for me to suddenly start voting for Trumpers one election cycle.

Otherwise, there’s not much persuasion to be had. Ds just have to rally loyal D Latino voters and youth (Hi Obama), Rs gotta get MAGAs out on EDay, etc.

On that note, happy to see Obama is coming to do a rally for both Hobbs and Kelly on Wednesday

I'd be curious in a more modern day matchup how Obama did in AZ. He lost it pretty big in both 2008 and 2012, but 2008 he was running against McCain, and in 2012 Romney was still a great fit for the state. It also seems like since then AZ Demographics have generally shifted to be more favorable to Democrats.

I would probably say like R+4 or 5 assuming a generic R was running against him in a neutral year. Sunbelt suburbanites absolutely despised Obama, even with some suburban shift the guy just isn't liked for some reason. But I guess that was his trade-off for being so good in the midwest, you can't have it all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Anyone have insights into the Attorney General and Secretary of State races  that Democrats seem to be doing better than the governors races in?

I do think irrespective whether Lake or Hobbs wins or who wins Secretary of State, that if push came to shove and Arizona voted for Biden in 2024 that even Lake and the Republicans would end up certifying the results for Biden.

That would be different from January 6th. It would be a successful over turn of popular will of Arizona. Look how close these races are in a Biden midterm in Arizona. The backlash to the GOP in the next midterm would be very harsh against the GOP if they actually overturned the popular will of voters in Arizona, a marginal state.

I can say the same for Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (borderline contestable).

Attorney general race is quite parrallel to the governorship. Hamadeh is a pretty good candidate on paper, Mayes is very sleepy unenthusiastic if you watched the debate. I think Hamadeh has the best odds to win compared to Lake/Masters/Finchem although Lake is catching up quickly.

Secretary of State has a lot less campaigning going on, from what I've seen. Finchem might be a weaker candidate, but on a night where Lake/Masters/Hamadeh are winning I think he joins them as well. I mean how many "pro-democracy" people are there who are voting Kari Lake but draw the line at Finchem?

[jamestroll]

Anyone have insights into the Attorney General and Secretary of State races  that Democrats seem to be doing better than the governors races in?

I do think irrespective whether Lake or Hobbs wins or who wins Secretary of State, that if push came to shove and Arizona voted for Biden in 2024 that even Lake and the Republicans would end up certifying the results for Biden.

That would be different from January 6th. It would be a successful over turn of popular will of Arizona. Look how close these races are in a Biden midterm in Arizona. The backlash to the GOP in the next midterm would be very harsh against the GOP if they actually overturned the popular will of voters in Arizona, a marginal state.

I can say the same for Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (borderline contestable).

Attorney general race is quite parrallel to the governorship. Hamadeh is a pretty good candidate on paper, Mayes is very sleepy unenthusiastic if you watched the debate. I think Hamadeh has the best odds to win compared to Lake/Masters/Finchem although Lake is catching up quickly.

Secretary of State has a lot less campaigning going on, from what I've seen. Finchem might be a weaker candidate, but on a night where Lake/Masters/Hamadeh are winning I think he joins them as well. I mean how many "pro-democracy" people are there who are voting Kari Lake but draw the line at Finchem?

Do you think Biden won Arizona that Lake and Finchem  would actually refuse to certify and send Trump/DeSantis/whoever the gop nominates electors instead?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/RealMarkFinchem/status/1587227996972322816?cxt=HHwWgMC4kYXd-...

Looks like Finchem is back on twitter after Elon Musk has reveresed the suspension.  

[Inmate Trump]

Lake is disgusting. I can only hope this helps to sink her campaign.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1587182585557684225

This is evil.

This is Republicanism.

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/RealMarkFinchem/status/1587227996972322816?cxt=HHwWgMC4kYXd-...

Looks like Finchem is back on twitter after Elon Musk has reveresed the suspension.  

This dude looks dope, more politicians need to combine the moustache and cowboy hat

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1587269186161561600


This is amusing. There was another video I saw with her, Hamadeh, and Masters pleading for people to vote early. Curious!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Only now just tuning into this election but this last ad is honestly pretty good. People are being hurt financially by high prices and soaring rent and who doesn't love a tax cut?

Obviously my questions are, "How much would this actually help reduce prices?", "It's not government taxes that are driving up rent", and "That money is gonna have to come from the budget somewhere, so what does that mean for schools, roads, government services, etc" but this isn't how the average voter thinks.

Furthermore I think it's a pretty smart strategy to release these smiling, positive, calm and issue-oriented ads in the last week(s) of the campaign, when the other side has been trying to paint you as Satan incarnate for the past year. It really can deflate the attack. I never heard her speak before but now I clearly can see how her time in the media taught her how to talk to people.

This is again one major complaint I have about the Democratic party: why aren't you addressing material concerns like this? Obviously I am horrified by the Dobbs decision but you need to run broad campaigns that appeal to people for whom abortion may not really be an issue. You can talk about abortion while also talking about similar things like cutting sales taxes on groceries, or (for national Dems) an excess profit tax.

I would not be surprised if Lake stomps Hobbs on election night. I have become very disillusioned with American political discourse but this is exactly the kind of campaigns I wish we had more of: less polemics and culture war stuff, more discussion of material, kitchen table issues. If Lake wins, she will have earned it IMO.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1587269186161561600


This is amusing. There was another video I saw with her, Hamadeh, and Masters pleading for people to vote early. Curious!

I really dislike how she always uses that camera filter to sort of "soften" her. Lake is extremely good with optics and it's small details like that that could subconsciously influence voters opinions of her.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1587269186161561600


This is amusing. There was another video I saw with her, Hamadeh, and Masters pleading for people to vote early. Curious!

I really dislike how she always uses that camera filter to sort of "soften" her. Lake is extremely good with optics and it's small details like that that could subconsciously influence voters opinions of her.

I don’t like commenting on the appearances of women in politics, but Kari always looks like she is a CGI person. I don’t get it, personally. From an optics perspective, what is more interesting to me is how she is Latina passing. I think she’s used that to her advantage and will do unusually well in non-white precincts, especially versus Masters.

Only now just tuning into this election but this last ad is honestly pretty good. People are being hurt financially by high prices and soaring rent and who doesn't love a tax cut?

Obviously my questions are, "How much would this actually help reduce prices?", "It's not government taxes that are driving up rent", and "That money is gonna have to come from the budget somewhere, so what does that mean for schools, roads, government services, etc" but this isn't how the average voter thinks.

Furthermore I think it's a pretty smart strategy to release these smiling, positive, calm and issue-oriented ads in the last week(s) of the campaign, when the other side has been trying to paint you as Satan incarnate for the past year. It really can deflate the attack. I never heard her speak before but now I clearly can see how her time in the media taught her how to talk to people.

This is again one major complaint I have about the Democratic party: why aren't you addressing material concerns like this? Obviously I am horrified by the Dobbs decision but you need to run broad campaigns that appeal to people for whom abortion may not really be an issue. You can talk about abortion while also talking about similar things like cutting sales taxes on groceries, or (for national Dems) an excess profit tax.

I would not be surprised if Lake stomps Hobbs on election night. I have become very disillusioned with American political discourse but this is exactly the kind of campaigns I wish we had more of: less polemics and culture war stuff, more discussion of material, kitchen table issues. If Lake wins, she will have earned it IMO.

I have no opinion on the upfront messaging — what’s notable is her relentless pushing of early voting. There has been a massive and sudden messaging push around voting early to the GOP base. The bean counters don’t like what they’ve seen thus far.

[xavier110]

Anyone have insights into the Attorney General and Secretary of State races  that Democrats seem to be doing better than the governors races in?

I do think irrespective whether Lake or Hobbs wins or who wins Secretary of State, that if push came to shove and Arizona voted for Biden in 2024 that even Lake and the Republicans would end up certifying the results for Biden.

That would be different from January 6th. It would be a successful over turn of popular will of Arizona. Look how close these races are in a Biden midterm in Arizona. The backlash to the GOP in the next midterm would be very harsh against the GOP if they actually overturned the popular will of voters in Arizona, a marginal state.

I can say the same for Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (borderline contestable).

AG: People seem to have a range of opinions on Mayes, the D AG nominee. She is a former GOP statewide official. During the debate, she was extremely dismissive of Hamadeh, the GOP nominee who has only a few years of post-degree experience. My impression is that she’s kind of abrasive, but this race has flown so under the radar vs.Gov, Sen and even SoS that I don’t think most voters will have any real thoughts on either candidate. My tip is to watch Hamadeh’s performance in the more far flung rural counties. His name may cost him a few votes here and there, unfortunately. I only see Mayes winning in a complete sweep for Ds.

SOS: There has actually been a spending spree in this race. Several anti-Finchem ads. He seems to be now getting negatively defined, though this race still could always default to generic R vs D ways. Fontes will out run Mayes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1587512825680826369

[wbrocks67]

Only now just tuning into this election but this last ad is honestly pretty good. People are being hurt financially by high prices and soaring rent and who doesn't love a tax cut?

Obviously my questions are, "How much would this actually help reduce prices?", "It's not government taxes that are driving up rent", and "That money is gonna have to come from the budget somewhere, so what does that mean for schools, roads, government services, etc" but this isn't how the average voter thinks.

Furthermore I think it's a pretty smart strategy to release these smiling, positive, calm and issue-oriented ads in the last week(s) of the campaign, when the other side has been trying to paint you as Satan incarnate for the past year. It really can deflate the attack. I never heard her speak before but now I clearly can see how her time in the media taught her how to talk to people.

This is again one major complaint I have about the Democratic party: why aren't you addressing material concerns like this? Obviously I am horrified by the Dobbs decision but you need to run broad campaigns that appeal to people for whom abortion may not really be an issue. You can talk about abortion while also talking about similar things like cutting sales taxes on groceries, or (for national Dems) an excess profit tax.

I would not be surprised if Lake stomps Hobbs on election night. I have become very disillusioned with American political discourse but this is exactly the kind of campaigns I wish we had more of: less polemics and culture war stuff, more discussion of material, kitchen table issues. If Lake wins, she will have earned it IMO.

This is said a lot, but it's not true - people just choose to ignore the Dem ads to say they aren't saying the things they actually *are* saying. Hobbs IS addressing it, but you're acting as if she's not just because you haven't seen it.

[Pericles]

Aren't Arizona's schools already horribly underfunded? If Lake is going to cut taxes there even more that could end very badly, but voters often go for the short-term sugar rush instead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg/status/1587623571970326528

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1587663962392252417

Huge crowds for Lake and Bannon in Arizona.

[SnowLabrador]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NicoleSGrigg/status/1587623571970326528

A restraining order is a piece of paper, not a force field. They're going to use it as toilet paper.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Hobbs' saving grace may be that Lake tanks with Independents

https://twitter.com/ChrisBuryNews/status/1587776487457005568

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1587616112979677184

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587943266741149698

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1588548633439666178

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1587512825680826369

For a brief second I thought the dem nominee was the republican one since they had patriot on their Twitter banner

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1587512825680826369

For a brief second I thought the dem nominee was the republican one since they had patriot on their Twitter banner

Looking at his Twitter bio if he didn't mention being the Dem nominee in it I'd definitely think he was the Republican

[2016]

According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.