Toomey will lose this race going away. He is a 100% misfit in PA, but the far right will get their wish as he will lead the ticket (sigh).
How is Toomey a 100% misfit? Remember, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum. Toomey is a better candidate than Santorum by far. To suggest that he will lose this race "going away" is ridiculous.
Santorum was elected in a very strong republican year (1994) against Wooford and struggled against a weak opponent in 2000. He was bombed in 2006. Watch and learn. Once Toomey falls behind after the democratic primary is over, he's done.
Still, if Specter survives the primary (still close to a 50% chance of that), I'd give Toomey a better than 50% chance of winning the general.