Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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2) The US/West would have to offer the Russian leadership regime security, i.e. opposing peaceful protests and muzzling free press and NGOs in Russia, Russia's sphere and at home. I don't think that's compatible with US and European countries remaining liberal democracies, or at least upholding liberal and democratic values. This is a fundamental unbridgeable divide that is probably the major factor driving Russia and China together as a club of autocracies who feel their regimes and nations are under threat by the values of the Western-led liberal international order.

The whole "ally with Russia against China" concept is essentially a white supremacist meme, essentially unite all white Christian peoples to fight against the great Yellow Peril. White supremacists, including dabblers like Trump, really couldn't care less about your point #2 so to them it's not an impediment at all, in fact they probably prefer their government behave that way as long as it is on their side.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.

Great news, if true. I will be quite happy to have my expectations proven wrong.

This may have happened because Ukraine has shown signs of conceding to Russia's demand that it not join NATO. This would be a big L for the US if it happens.

One thing strikes me as weird is Ukraine's posture in this whole thing. They're not showing signs of making war preparations, like digging trenches, building pillboxes and other fortifications, setting up AA emplacements, holding military parades and other morale building exercises, show their leaders giving speeches about how they will defend every last inch of their land and expel the invaders, etc. In the late 1930's countries like Poland and China did this and then vigorously defended themselves when attacked since they  feared the Western allies would consent to Germany/Japan taking chunks out of their land if they just retreated without resisting. But now Ukraine is doing the opposite, feigning helplessness and weakness to gain sympathy from the Western allies and gain support that way? I guess the world has changed in 80 years.

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Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO. That doesn't mean they will ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

The Russians are apparently willing to settle for Ukraine guaranteeing it in their laws, probably as a part of their constitution. This would be the biggest L possible IMO for the US, their eastern expansion into Ukraine thwarted without being able to punish Russia for it.  This would probably tempt the US to launch another regime change in Ukraine, which would give Russia a much more solid casus belli.

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Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO. That doesn't mean they will ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

The Russians are apparently willing to settle for Ukraine guaranteeing it in their laws, probably as a part of their constitution. This would be the biggest L possible IMO for the US, their eastern expansion into Ukraine thwarted without being able to punish Russia for it.  This would probably tempt the US to launch another regime change in Ukraine, which would give Russia a much more solid casus belli.

What do you mean by "another" here?

*heavy sarcasm* Didn’t you know Euromaidan was actually a NATO backed coup? The thousands of protesters in Kiev were all CIA operatives.

The fact that the Americans found local lackeys to do their bidding doesn't change the fact they orchestrated the regime change when Ukraine changed their policy to align with Russia. In particular, Victoria Nuland, who may still be at the State Department, was caught with her hand in the cookie jar and on tape talking about it. Biden talked today about the right of countries to determine their own futures. Well, what if Zelensky decides that the future of Ukraine is neutrality? Then it's time for a new Ukrainian president, huh?

One would think that after the Russians foisted Trump on the US and caused us all the mayhem and misery of the last 4 years, Americans would realize that what they did in Ukraine in 2014 was a big mistake. But hypocrisy looks like it is the true enduring hallmark of American foreign policy.

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Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

It's totally reasonable that Europeans are not happy about having to bear the cost of economic sanctions dictated by the American defense and intelligence establishments that conveniently leave American firms largely unscathed.

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https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1494017619145502725

A senior official said President Volodymyr Zelensky was considering holding a referendum that could keep his country from joining NATO, fulfilling one of Mr. Putin’s key demands.

The prospects for such a vote were uncertain and ambiguous, and many Ukrainians were likely to bitterly oppose any sign of concessions to Russia, but the fact that it was being floated at all showed that Mr. Putin’s buildup of forces near Ukraine’s borders could enable him to achieve his objectives without launching a full-scale invasion.

LMAO, this referendum wouldn't pass, the CIA will make sure of that. If it did pass though it would be the biggest L possible for the US on this issue.

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This is lining up with my original guess, that Putin will wait until next Monday to launch the attack in order to keep Xi happy.

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It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed.

And here we have the "peacekeeping" operation.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1495871597059706887

I guess we're about to find out what a "minor incursion" is?

Also I like Putin's terminology in referring to "the authorities in charge in Kiev" and the "Kiev regime" to brand Ukraine as a rogue state, mimicking how the US likes to label countries it thinks of as rogue states.

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We've found it, Biden's definition of a "minor incursion" that doesn't trigger sanctions.

https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1495891830239645697

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This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

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RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

Probably, because neither US or EU want to describe it as invasion. Yet, at least.

Well, Ukraine cannot describe it as an invasion because as per Ukraine Russia already invaded these lands in 2014 so they cannot re-invade the same area. 

It seems we are headed to these breakaway republics being annexed to Russia soon.  It will be a rerun of the 1810 West Florida Republic in slow motion. 

I think this is a mistake on Russia's part as it now limits their strategic space.  Ideally for Russia, they want a pro-Russia (or at least non-anti-Russia) Ukraine.  This move takes that option off the table.  While I do not think Russia will do anything soon this move pretty much locks Russia into the goal of eating up Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River in the coming decades and Western Ukraine will be anti-Russia for decades if not centuries.  These moves will be costly and risky for Russia and ensure at best a hostile Western Ukraine on its border.  Putin trades some short-term advtanages for long term costs.  My assessment of Putin as a sound strategist has diminished.

Honestly if the "freedom and democracy" rhetoric didn't get in the way and realpolitik could be practiced in the open, there is a grand bargain to be struck here where Russia annexes a big chunk of eastern Ukraine, probably up to Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Mariupol and the part of Ukraine that borders Crimea, Ukraine accepts it by treaty, and the rest of Ukraine joins NATO. From the perspective of joining NATO it was a problem for Ukraine anyway that it had "temporarily occupied territories" since then NATO could be on the hook for helping Ukraine reclaim those territories.

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This is horrifying, I'm so scared. We must now all support the Ukrainian Army and people in their fight for freedom.

Spare us the pearl clutching. Why are you scared? You're not in Ukraine. This war will not touch the USA. Gas prices will go up a bit, that's all. You're really that upset that the grand American ploy to surround and contain Russia has failed?

Again, it's amazing that on a forum that is so politically aware, the vast majority drink the Kool-Aid and accept the Western "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth.

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https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1496705649006333955?s=20&t=dtRgI_KEwH...
Take any unconfirmed reports with a grain of salt ofc.

If true, it's a major blow though. Mariupol is the 10th largest city in Ukraine and a valuable port/defensive city for the Ukrainian Army.

Indeed, and the fact that the city fell in 2 hours? I find this unbelievable, even if the Ukrainian military simply retreated without fighting and there is a lot of pro-Russian support in Mariupol. It would take more than 2 hours to just occupy the city I'd imagine.

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Markets have been up since Biden started speaking. What exactly was the market pricing in before, NATO to sever diplomatic relations with Russia? I don't understand what's going on here.

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https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

So much for the “Russia has a superior army” argument. All I’m seeing is them getting their asses handed back to them.

Neither the Ukrainian government nor the Russian government are reliable sources anymore on current developments of the war. I never heard of a belligerent in a shooting war reporting honestly on the war's developments.

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Sadly it does seem that much of the west is simply not prepared to do the right thing if it's not also the easy thing. Yes, the sanctions necessary to dent Russian resolve will increase gas prices. I'll pay whatever gas prices I need to save the lives of innocent Ukrainians as well as potential future victims of Russian aggression. This is bigger than personal convenience.

Judging by this forum, Westerners and Americans in particular think it's an intolerable burden to put on a damn mask, so what exactly did you expect when faced something that will hit their pocketbook and livelihood in a real way?

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S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

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S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info.
What does BAU stand for?

Business As Usual

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IFX reports that Russia is now ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine.

I guess they figure they have the upper hand and that further gains might get costlier so it makes sense for them to see what they can squeeze out of Ukraine through talks.  And if Ukraine does not show they can tell PRC's Xi that they tried.

I'm sure talks this early weren't part of the original Russian plan, whatever they claim now.

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

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IFX reports that Russia is now ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine.

I guess they figure they have the upper hand and that further gains might get costlier so it makes sense for them to see what they can squeeze out of Ukraine through talks.  And if Ukraine does not show they can tell PRC's Xi that they tried.

I'm sure talks this early weren't part of the original Russian plan, whatever they claim now.

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

You can call it a message from the Kremlin, from Zhongnanhai, whatever. It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

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What a joke. You treat us like dogsh**t for years, and then you expect us to do your bidding? It's as if the Americans still think it's 1992 and they have the power to dictate terms to everyone in the world. We may help out in the end but we most assuredly will extract a price from you for it.

U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine

WASHINGTON — Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials.

Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said.

The previously unreported talks between American and Chinese officials show how the Biden administration tried to use intelligence findings and diplomacy to persuade a superpower it views as a growing adversary to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and how that nation, led by President Xi Jinping, persistently sided with Russia even as the evidence of Moscow’s plans for a military offensive grew over the winter.

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It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

Firstly, the capital being under direct threat in the second day of the invasion of a large country sounds impressive at first, very impressive, right up until you look at a map and notice where Kiev actually is. It is highly exposed to any aggressive push from the north and borderline indefensible from that direction as well.

Secondly, no one serious is saying that the Ukrainian army is winning. What has been noticed, and not just here and not just on twitter, is that they have held up a lot better than expected. People have also been surprised at the Russian attack plan with so many independent thrusts on so many different fronts, something that smacks of the sort of incompetence driven by excessive political interference in military decisions. It is still overwhelmingly likely that the Russian military 'wins' due to the substantial imbalance in the size of forces and also resources involved, but it is plainly not going to plan, and this is an important and relevant thing to note.

Finally, your sneering is unpleasant and reflects poorly on your character.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

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I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

Clearly that was another flaw with the Ukrainian defense plan, just like France in 1940 with the Ardenne, they planned their defenses around an "impassable" natural barrier that wasn't actually impassable. But first, this was not a surprise attack and the Ukrainians should have been digging trenches and otherwise building fortifications to blunt the expected attack from Belarus. They do have entrenchments in place in Luhansk and Donetsk and thus the attacks from the DPR and LPR have not gotten very far. Second, the "trading space for time" and "bleed the enemy" strategy you refer to implies Kiev needs to be given up and needed to be combined with an evacuation of the capital and Zelensky to Lvov. But Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev, which is good to keep Ukrainian morale high, but it had to be combined with an all-out defense of Kiev or else the result is what we see now; Zelensky is threatened directly within 2 days and is forced to ask for an armistice.

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https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

This does not sound like a leader who's confident in a negotiated peace, as well he shouldn't be.

He should probably formally ask for an armistice now before this happens and try to get more lenient peace terms rather than what he'll get if he's a POW and major cities fall under Russian control.

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Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.