Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Latest top secret US intelligence briefing to Prez Biden gaming out likely Putin moves in the next few days

https://youtu.be/z77JFw2D6f8?t=35

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.

Great news, if true. I will be quite happy to have my expectations proven wrong.

[jaichind]

I am sure in a week or two once the Russian invasion does not materialize the Biden administration will lionize Joe Biden as Joe "von Manstein" Biden who stopped the Soviet ..... er sorry .... the Russian offensive even before it started.

[CumbrianLefty]

I am sure in a week or two once the Russian invasion does not materialize the Biden administration will lionize Joe Biden as Joe "von Manstein" Biden who stopped the Soviet ..... er sorry .... the Russian offensive even before it started.

And there will be similar, even more objectively hilarious, claims for BoJo in this country.

[compucomp]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.

Great news, if true. I will be quite happy to have my expectations proven wrong.

This may have happened because Ukraine has shown signs of conceding to Russia's demand that it not join NATO. This would be a big L for the US if it happens.

One thing strikes me as weird is Ukraine's posture in this whole thing. They're not showing signs of making war preparations, like digging trenches, building pillboxes and other fortifications, setting up AA emplacements, holding military parades and other morale building exercises, show their leaders giving speeches about how they will defend every last inch of their land and expel the invaders, etc. In the late 1930's countries like Poland and China did this and then vigorously defended themselves when attacked since they  feared the Western allies would consent to Germany/Japan taking chunks out of their land if they just retreated without resisting. But now Ukraine is doing the opposite, feigning helplessness and weakness to gain sympathy from the Western allies and gain support that way? I guess the world has changed in 80 years.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/IMatviyishyn/status/1493622371437133835

[StateBoiler]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.

Great news, if true. I will be quite happy to have my expectations proven wrong.

This may have happened because Ukraine has shown signs of conceding to Russia's demand that it not join NATO. This would be a big L for the US if it happens.

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.

One thing strikes me as weird is Ukraine's posture in this whole thing. They're not showing signs of making war preparations, like digging trenches, building pillboxes and other fortifications, setting up AA emplacements, holding military parades and other morale building exercises, show their leaders giving speeches about how they will defend every last inch of their land and expel the invaders, etc. In the late 1930's countries like Poland and China did this and then vigorously defended themselves when attacked since they  feared the Western allies would consent to Germany/Japan taking chunks out of their land if they just retreated without resisting. But now Ukraine is doing the opposite, feigning helplessness and weakness to gain sympathy from the Western allies and gain support that way? I guess the world has changed in 80 years.

I've read military criticism elsewhere saying Ukraine are not preparing for the threat of war properly, although parades do nothing.

[jaichind]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

[StateBoiler]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians formally agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO, every country in the world including Russia does. That doesn't mean they would ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

[compucomp]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO. That doesn't mean they will ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

The Russians are apparently willing to settle for Ukraine guaranteeing it in their laws, probably as a part of their constitution. This would be the biggest L possible IMO for the US, their eastern expansion into Ukraine thwarted without being able to punish Russia for it.  This would probably tempt the US to launch another regime change in Ukraine, which would give Russia a much more solid casus belli.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO. That doesn't mean they will ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

The Russians are apparently willing to settle for Ukraine guaranteeing it in their laws, probably as a part of their constitution. This would be the biggest L possible IMO for the US, their eastern expansion into Ukraine thwarted without being able to punish Russia for it.  This would probably tempt the US to launch another regime change in Ukraine, which would give Russia a much more solid casus belli.

What do you mean by "another" here?

[Beet]

RUSSIA is set to invade Ukraine at 1am tomorrow with a massive missile blitz and 200,000 troops, according to US intelligence.

Highly placed sources said preparations to defend the besieged nation would continue - despite reports Putin was withdrawing some troops from the border.

Senior sources said a Moscow attack would be “almost certainly from multiple points” over Ukraine’s southern, eastern and northern flanks.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/4689995/russia-set-invade-ukraine-tomorrow/

[Storr]

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of
faith.

[WD]

>The Sun

[Storr]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Because this is geopolitics and that's not how things work. For example, everyone knows Crimea now is Russian and it is never going back to Ukraine, but they're not going to say that publicly in order to not legitimize Russia's hostile annexation of it until the Ukrainians agree to cede it.

Look, Singapore to throw out a random place has a right to join NATO. That doesn't mean they will ever actually get approved to join. The EU are never going to allow Turkey in nowadays, they're still considered a candidate. The Russians seem to want a written-down treaty to be agreed to reorganizing Europe's security infrastructure, and that takes years, not a couple months with your forces around a border.

The Russians are apparently willing to settle for Ukraine guaranteeing it in their laws, probably as a part of their constitution. This would be the biggest L possible IMO for the US, their eastern expansion into Ukraine thwarted without being able to punish Russia for it.  This would probably tempt the US to launch another regime change in Ukraine, which would give Russia a much more solid casus belli.

What do you mean by "another" here?

*heavy sarcasm* Didn’t you know Euromaidan was actually a NATO backed coup? The thousands of protesters in Kiev were all CIA operatives.

[TheTide]

>The Sun

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of
faith.

I understand the sentiments expressed in these posts, but alas most of the rest of the media has dragged itself down to the level of this sh**te in the last few years. I wouldn't put much more stock into it if the Times or Guardian were reporting this.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's a good sign in and of itself, but I'm not sure I would want to read too much into the small troop movements in Belarus and Crimea

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1493574215911550978

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1493568916500721664

One reason why is that the buildup over the past couple of weeks seems to have been concentrated in the Kursk-Bryansk area. I'd want to see movement of equipment to the east from the border there before concluding that Putin has decided to deescalate.

https://twitter.com/vpkivimaki/status/1493356182530105344?s=20&t=oftly70eqA_...

As for the diplomatic talk, it's no change from what anyone has been saying throughout this crisis.

Edit: yep, seeing stuff like this makes me really doubt deescalation is happening. Putin still might not decide to invade but I don't think there's been a stepdown yet.

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1493572419809947649

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Ukraine joining NATO at this point is about as likely as Turkey ever joining the EU.
 

So why not tell Putin that publically.  If Russia invades then Putin will have a hell of a job trying to explain to his people why Russian blood needs to be bleed on something the West and Ukraine is already making concessions on.

Well for one it would be a concession without any give from Russia, under the threat of Russian military action, so that would be incentivising aggression and brinkmanship and there would be no reason to believe that Russia wouldn't pocket it and continue the buildup. Potential Ukraine NATO membership is a good rhetorical point for Russia but not actually why they would launch an invasion, so I'm dubious that such a concession would avoid war. And Russian rhetoric is that NATO broke promises about eastern expansion in the past so it's doubtful the trust is even there for such a deal on Ukraine. I think it's very unlikely diplomacy over this narrow issue is going to work.

[Aurelius]

The Sun? I'll believe it when I see it.

[Torie]

We will begin to find out how accurate the story is at 8 pm EST, which it states is the scheduled invade date. The story sounds like a recycling of the stories that the US had documents of the invasion plan scheduled to start on Wednesday as part of the its plan to expose Putin's plan in advance to induce him to tack.

[It’s so Joever]

I am sure in a week or two once the Russian invasion does not materialize the Biden administration will lionize Joe Biden as Joe "von Manstein" Biden who stopped the Soviet ..... er sorry .... the Russian offensive even before it started.

As they should.

[Helsinkian]

Even if that had been the planned invasion date, you would think that Russia might want to postpone it in order to embarass Western intelligence information.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NATO accession is only possible with the unanimous approval of all existing NATO states. Even the American government, off the record, does not support Ukrainian accession. Everyone involved knows this.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of faith.

I certainly wouldn't trust the Sun, either. However, I will observe that President Biden has rescheduled his speech from 3:30PM EST to 8:30PM EST. That changes it from 12:30AM to 3:30AM in Kyiv.
Edited to correct: he spoke at 3:30PM EST after all, speech was not delayed.

[Beet]

Big if true….but trusting the Sun? That’s a gigantic leap of
faith.

Would you trust PBS? They reported four days ago they reported the following:

The United States believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and has communicated those plans to the Russian military, Western and defense officials have told the PBS NewsHour.

Two additional administration officials tell the NewsHour that they expect the invasion to begin next week—reiterating what U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Feb. 10.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220211200039/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-to-invade-ukraine-next-week-according-to-u-s-officials

Interestingly enough however Sullivan was saying they didn't know yet. The headline was later changed, but not before it was widely reported.