When you look at the topline, it's pretty clear most of those undecideds are Trump voters who don't know who the Republican nominee is. Regardless, it's not a great poll for R's, who should primarily focus on picking up AZ, NV, and GA and defending WI and PA.
If Biden and the situation in general continues to stabilize, those 5 are the main battlegrounds. I think if they have a "good night" but not a wave, they win all of them with the exception of GA. This night probably has 20 GOP house pick ups and maybe 2-3 Gubernatorial ones. So the GOP will go into 2024 with a 52-48 majority and a 231-204 house. About where they were after the 2002 midterms.
Maybe this race and one other becomes "Toss Up" or even "Lean R" if the new year has us limp into another crisis but there is also upside risks to Democrats, too. Namely that there is some sort of proxy military strike on Iran that cripples their program and it doesn't escalate into a war or worse, escalates into a situation where war is warranted but avoided or that Roe v. Wade is overruled and there's a backlash. In that situation, Democrats probably gain in both chambers.
