Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[It’s so Joever]

Of course the Armenian genocide happened, but why should that influence our policy on Azerbaijan today when it happened 100 years ago when Azerbaijan didn’t exist?

Nagorno Karabakh is surrounded, there is one road in and out. Part of that road around Shusha is controlled by Azerbaijan. If there is another war, there is a high chance that the entire Armenian population of Karabakh will be cut off and unable to escape. What happens to the Armenians living there if Azerbaijan defeats the Karabakh Armenian militia? Genocide is a very serious possibility.

The Armenian genocide happened 100 years ago, but there is still widespread denial, celebration of its perpetrators and strong anti-Armenian rhetoric. We are making a dangerous mistake if we think the Armenian genocide is something of the past that shouldn't affect our policies today.

Fair enough but again the smarter precedent still would be the ethnic cleansings in the 1990s as that was actually done by Azerbaijan, and I do think we should be very stern with Azeri leadership on potential consequences if they do invade Nagorno Karabakh proper and try to cleanse the local population.

[Logical]

There has been another flare up. It appears that Azerbaijan may have invaded southern Armenia. They are taking advantage of the war in Ukraine occupying the world's attention and Russia's current predicament. I'm watching for the Russian and Iranian response.
Russia has a force of peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno Karabakh and a military base in Gyumri. As a member of CSTO, Armenia should have the protection of Russia if Azerbaijan occupies their internationally recognized territories. If Russia's response is weak then it will be a major humiliation. Their sphere of influence will be as good as dead.
Iran is one of Armenia's oldest partners, they have repeatedly warned off Azerbaijan's encroachment of Armenia's borders. I don't think they will look favorably upon this naked land grab. I do not know what they would do but military action is not out of the question.
The rest of the world will issue condemnations but in the end they can do nothing.

[Sol]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There has been another flare up. It appears that Azerbaijan may have invaded southern Armenia. They are taking advantage of the war in Ukraine occupying the world's attention and Russia's current predicament. I'm watching for the Russian and Iranian response.
Russia has a force of peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno Karabakh and a military base in Gyumri. As a member of CSTO, Armenia should have the protection of Russia if Azerbaijan occupies their internationally recognized borders. If Russia's response is weak then it will be a major humiliation. Their sphere of influence will be as good as dead.
Iran is one of Armenia's oldest partners, they have repeatedly warned off Azerbaijan's encroachment of Armenia's borders. I don't think they will look favorably upon this naked land grab. I do not know what they would do but military action is not out of the question.
The rest of the world will issue condemnations but in the end they can do nothing.

Could this have consequences outside the Caucusus region? Does Russia currently have the troops to spare to force Azerbaijan to the table? What happens if Iran gets militarily involved?

[Logical]

There has been another flare up. It appears that Azerbaijan may have invaded southern Armenia. They are taking advantage of the war in Ukraine occupying the world's attention and Russia's current predicament. I'm watching for the Russian and Iranian response.
Russia has a force of peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno Karabakh and a military base in Gyumri. As a member of CSTO, Armenia should have the protection of Russia if Azerbaijan occupies their internationally recognized borders. If Russia's response is weak then it will be a major humiliation. Their sphere of influence will be as good as dead.
Iran is one of Armenia's oldest partners, they have repeatedly warned off Azerbaijan's encroachment of Armenia's borders. I don't think they will look favorably upon this naked land grab. I do not know what they would do but military action is not out of the question.
The rest of the world will issue condemnations but in the end they can do nothing.

Could this have consequences outside the Caucusus region? Does Russia currently have the troops to spare to force Azerbaijan to the table? What happens if Iran gets militarily involved?

The consequences could be huge. Energy prices will spike further, the new EU - AZ gas deal might be killed.
There are about 3-4 thousand Russian troops stationed in the area, they could probably halt Azerbaijan's advance until a ceasefire agreement is reached.
If Iran gets militarily involved then things will get interesting, the Caucasus could see the rise of a new hegemon to replace Russia.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The Azeris aren't messing around.

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1569440359276548098

Realistically I'm not sure there's much Russia can do but, as previously mentioned, the Iranians aren't going to take this lying down.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1569488805933219840?s=20&t=z8Lqv0B4O94...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1569483200917024768?s=20&t=z8Lqv0B4O9...

[SnowLabrador]

2020: Worst year ever.

2022: Hold my beer.

[It’s so Joever]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

[Aurelius]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can't believe I'm actually rooting for Iran to kick ass...

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Got a few texts throughout the night/this morning asking about it--that was my first hearing of it. Gonna try to gather info today at work.

EDIT: FTR, I am in Yerevan.

[It’s so Joever]

Can't believe I'm actually rooting for Iran to kick ass...

This, as many of you know I have generally been more sympathetic to the Azeris than most on here…but an invasion of the actual country of Armenia must not be tolerated.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Thank you

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Hey, at least this gives him a great opportunity to be an Atlas war correspondent.

[jojoju1998]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Got a few texts throughout the night/this morning asking about it--that was my first hearing of it. Gonna try to gather info today at work.

EDIT: FTR, I am in Yerevan.

Stay safe !

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Iran could flatten Azerbaijan's artillery in days right? I can't see Azerbaijan's air defense standing a chance against the Iranian Air Force.

[Helsinkian]

Maybe Azerbaijan is getting ready to invade the remaining part of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the strikes in Armenia proper are intended to prevent the Armenians from intervening in an upcoming NK offensive?

[ꙮ]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Hey, at least this gives him a great opportunity to be an Atlas war correspondent.

The... situation, depending on how it unfolds, may actually compel me to shuft my volunteer focus from agricultural and environmental topics.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

Spoiler alert: Russia isn't going to do sh!t.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

Spoiler alert: Russia isn't going to do sh!t.

It is time for Kazakhstan to assume its leading role in the CSTO.

[Lord Halifax]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

Spoiler alert: Russia isn't going to do sh!t.

which means the Iranians will have to