PEI General Election 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Election called for May 5.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, Alberta will be the 5th, I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you don't know what PEI stands for, then this is not a thread that is going to interest you in the least.

Besides, who hasn't heard of PEI? Isn't Anne of Green Gables one of the most famous book series ever?

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone can go to Wikipedia and find that map, but I spent the better part of the day calculating mine (BTW, the Wikipedia map is mine too, or at least uses the same outline)

I wanted to see if the federal NDP won any ridings in Charlottetown, but they alas did not. They came pretty close in Charlottetown-Victoria Park though,

[Hatman 🍁]

I wanted to see if the federal NDP won any ridings in Charlottetown, but they alas did not. They came pretty close in Charlottetown-Victoria Park though,

They probably did so in 1997.

Doesn't look like their support was concentrated enough, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

They probably did so in 1997.

Doesn't look like their support was concentrated enough, actually.

Again: 1997.  Not 2011.  Back when Alexamania lifted Dody Crane's ship.

Yes, I know. I looked at the poll map.

[Hatman 🍁]

I get why the Francophone area (forget what it's called right now) in the south west would vote heavily Liberal in the provincial election, but why did it go Tory in the federal election?

Popular MP/cabinet minister. That riding is called Evangeline-Miscouche.

Despite the Conservatives winning just one riding in PEI, they won the popular vote by winning Egmont by a large margin, while being somewhat competitive in the other three ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens are running a near full slate. First time in three elections where the NDP is running more candidates than the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's hope the NDP doesn't follow the same strategy as they did in NB where they didn't target any specific ridings, and ended up empty handed.

[Hatman 🍁]

FF

[Hatman 🍁]

First projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/2015-pei-election-projection-1.html

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP's at 15% actually.

Hope they publish some regional crosstabs. The article keeps mentioning Queens County numbers. I can't imagine the other counties have much sample, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are regional breaks, but this is all that was published in the Guardian:

Kings County: Lib 58, PC 31
Queens County: Lib 39, PC 37, NDP 18
Prince County: Liberal lead

Kings County is traditionally the most Tory friendly, but you wouldn't know that by looking at the federal results.

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That's just Grenier's analysis of the poll we've already discussed. He's masquerading as a journalist for CBC now!

[Hatman 🍁]

Huge sample (344) for a riding in PEI.  Also the Greens got a bargain paying $1200.

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/prince-edward-island-election-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP leading in Lewis Point again!

[Hatman 🍁]

It was their best riding last election, so they could win it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl I just saw your tweet on CBC

I saw it too.

You know PEI is small, when...

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't call Lewis Point quite yet. Advance poll could have over 1000 votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a bad result, I guess... but oh so close. Redmond is an idiot for not running in Charlottetown.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, NDP won't have any seat. Early vote was counted in Lewis Point and Liberals won by 109 votes.

NDP has been having it really rough in Atlantic Canada in recent years.

Well, honestly, they deserve it. Follow the Green strategy. Focus totally on your leader and get it elected. Don't run him in a random rural or suburban riding (like Cardy or Redmond did).

Well, Cardy ran in Fredericton. But yeah, they should've learned their lesson.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, NDP won't have any seat. Early vote was counted in Lewis Point and Liberals won by 109 votes.

NDP has been having it really rough in Atlantic Canada in recent years.

Well, honestly, they deserve it. Follow the Green strategy. Focus totally on your leader and get it elected. Don't run him in a random rural or suburban riding (like Cardy or Redmond did).

Well, Cardy ran in Fredericton. But yeah, they should've learned their lesson.

No, he ran in a riding covering a small part of Charlottetown and a big suburb of it.

I assume you meant Fredericton; still not rural though. It could have been winnable if they tried. Redmond's riding choice was much worse.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP will finished third in popular vote, barely. Greens got as high as they were because a quarter of their vote came from BB's district.