Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Iowa
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Poll
Question: Rate Iowa and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Safe R		  
#8
Clinton		  
#9
Trump		  
#10
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 153

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Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Iowa  (Read 3605 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #25 on: September 01, 2016, 07:09:01 PM »
Tossup, Clinton 50-48
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« Reply #26 on: September 07, 2016, 11:15:32 PM »
Revising: Toss-Up, 49-47 Clinton. Should of done this a while ago, but was just too skeptical of the polls. I have difficulty seeing the reasoning of some Obama voters to vote for Trump here, but the closeness is definitely real. Also weird because the states around it are all as much for Clinton as they were for Obama or more.
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Figueira
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« Reply #27 on: September 07, 2016, 11:34:47 PM »
The state might be trending Republican, but I suspect Clinton will win by enough to overcome that. Still a tossup, though.
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #28 on: September 07, 2016, 11:40:22 PM »
I'm keeping my Lean D, 51-47 prediction for now. I'm guessing Hillary's ground game will pull her over the top, even if the state does trend Republican. If more polls show a tied race, though, I may change my prediction.
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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E: -6.58, S: 0.00

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« Reply #29 on: September 08, 2016, 01:24:36 PM »
Changing my prediction from toss-up to Lean R.

Trump 51
Clinton 47
Johnson 2
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Senator Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: September 24, 2016, 05:04:53 PM »
Quote from: Spark498 on August 02, 2016, 11:52:25 AM
Toss-up.

Trump 48
Clinton 50
Johnson 2

Likely R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Johnson 2%
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #31 on: September 26, 2016, 09:56:52 AM »
Surprised that it is still Clinton ahead  73-43.  If Trump is ahead in Ohio thread 45-22 then I would expect Iowa to be in a similar situation.
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #32 on: September 26, 2016, 02:15:52 PM »
I'm going by a huge leap of faith here and not changing my vote (toss-up, Clinton).

But if they're actually abandoning this state now, they're idiots.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #33 on: September 26, 2016, 03:50:00 PM »
Quote from: Xiivi on September 26, 2016, 10:31:37 AM
Quote from: jaichind on September 26, 2016, 09:56:52 AM
Surprised that it is still Clinton ahead  73-43.  If Trump is ahead in Ohio thread 45-22 then I would expect Iowa to be in a similar situation.

Not very many people go back and change their vote it seems.

For this particular one and some of the Maine threads, people have changed their vote. A lot of it was new votes but around the time this thread was created it was around 75% Clinton now its 56% Clinton (it was 60% just this morning, at this rate Trump will be the predicted winner in a few days).
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tinman64
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E: -4.13, S: -1.57

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« Reply #34 on: September 26, 2016, 04:03:58 PM »
Changed mine from Tossup/Clinton to Lean R/Trump.

Trump 51
Clinton 46
Others 3
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peterthlee
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« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2016, 06:30:06 PM »
Lean D (based on recent polling, otherwise, likely D)
Clinton 51-47-2
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2016, 05:21:31 PM »
Shifting from Lean R to Tossup (Trump).

EV numbers are starting to pick up for the Dems, and this state will be extremely close on election night, but not seeing enough of the "Big Mo" in a state where demographics tend to favor Trump.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2016, 05:30:16 PM »
Switched my vote to Toss-Up (TRUMP) from Toss-up (Clinton).
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AGA
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E: 1.42, S: -4.70

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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2016, 07:32:43 PM »
Switching from Clinton to Trump, but leaving at Tossup.
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Ashley Biden's Diary
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2016, 07:35:28 PM »
I expect a result similar to 1996 in Trump's favor, like 50-39.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2016, 12:04:12 PM »
Bumping due to closeness in predictions.
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Ashley Biden's Diary
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2016, 12:07:17 PM »
Iowa has had weird polling, most polls have had both candidates under 45%. I refuse to say that IA is lean Trump if WI is likely Clinton. Obama got one of his best performances with white women in IA 2012 (58-41%). That alone gives me hope for Hillary to pull it out, though I'm certainly not predicting it.
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