This probably represents the worst case for Shapiro.
That’s what “good” Republican polls try to accurately model. The best realistic night for Republicans probably does have Walker, Ass, Bolduc to get to 51%, Laxalt to 52%, and Masters winning by a few thousands of votes. Maybe Whitmer and Shapiro barely get 51-52% and there is at least 1 blue state upset in governor races.
If there’s nothing nefarious or just sociologically weird going on (there are, like in 2016, millions of Republicans hiding in plain sight from pollsters), I’m not expecting this to happen.
