Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

It's Russian mobilization.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1572568782748680194

It's Russian mobilization.

It seems like a pretty dumb decision by EU countries to deny Russian citizes visas right now.

Yeah, people were pretty mad at Finland for not joining the Baltic states in blocking the land borders.  Although, to be fair, Finland is probably a little more equipped to deal with something like this than the Baltic states.

[DINGO Joe]

Meanwhile, the Russian world keeps turning

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1572604212747579392


Although falling to your death from an Aviation Institute is a little more poetic than others.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1572634523002601478

[DINGO Joe]

Just curious, has anyone seen a good article outlining how Lend-Lease will be used once it goes into effect Oct 1st?

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1572625388265938944

Well, it's a start

[DINGO Joe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572697479149240321

And he already has examples

[DINGO Joe]

Z-channel buzz today is that Ukraine has broken thru the line NW of Lyman and are actually bypassing Lyman--the "old"  Kharkiv tactic.

[DINGO Joe]

Some stylish top tier trolling here

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1572947574016933888

[DINGO Joe]

Uh oh, they're starting to cooperate.  This could get dangerous.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573662086927884288

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1573675212884901890

[DINGO Joe]

I know it's already been covered but cool graphic

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1573776034339635206

Maybe they're already putting new draftees into cockpits?

[DINGO Joe]

In the latest episode of the sitcom "Putin",  Putin's wacky next door neighbor comes over to give Putin some unsolicited advice

https://twitter.com/Kremlinpool_RIA/status/1574315133194600448


Sorry, haven't seen an English tweet of this yet, but Luka, without prompting, tells Putin to not worry about everyone fleeing Russia because he had people flee Belarus too.  Don't worry, they'll come back someday.


Luka remains a master troll.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Incredible if true. I thought Russia would come up with plausible numbers so that gullible morons in the West could fall for it but nope. It's a ****  you, we're North Korea figure.

I mean Lukashenko got 80% in his last election, and it's not possible to be more popular than Luka.  I mean Luka is Putin's best friend and he's always happy to help, but does Putin ask? No.  He just mucks it up.  Sad.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1574659872699940868?s=20&t=vl5AtA...

Probably because of this

https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1574856384843288589

Or maybe fleeing the "draft".  Hard to say.

[DINGO Joe]

So since apparently one of the "Hot Topics" of the day has to do with the "sabotage" of a couple Russian owned Natural Gas Pipelines, naturally got to check in to see what my "Old Mate" Sutton has to say on the topic.

We still don't know "who dunnit", but in theory we now have a couple possibilities floating around.

Here's a link to his original thread, where he postulates in theory had Russia carried out the sabotage mission would likely be either divers or AUVs.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750304570073088?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

Now we have his latest update:

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574879207603183623?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

BUMP--- Apparently Atlas is more interested in bickering about "opinions" versus "data".

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1574798581810200578

[DINGO Joe]

Do we have any idea how many Russian troops are in Lyman? Like, if it’s a company or two then it’s not really a big deal, but if we are talking a few battalions or several divisions then that’s something to celebrate. But do we have like a solid number? 100? 1,000? 10,000?

Realistically 1000 to 3000

[DINGO Joe]

It seems that Russia most likely already made the call that Lyman was not holdable given the size of the Ukrainian offensive a week or two ago.  But Russia took the risk of holding on to it and having the LPR  garrison get cut off to avoid the poor PR of having to give up the city during the referendum.  After the referendum then a Russian force attacked Lyman and got the LPR garrison out.  With causality figures being released from both sides that should correctly be viewed as propaganda it is not clear if this delay was worth it.  Clearly, any military decision dictated by political factors cannot possibly be optimal so Russia most likely was a net loser from all this but is not clear by how much.

OK, which makes the reporting from Russian telegraph channels that they didn't build defensive lines in Kreminna during that time fairly astounding--or not as the ability of the RU to do anything at this point is minimal.

[DINGO Joe]

Russia Manufacturing PMI which estimates the pace of manufacturing expansion or contraction (50 is break even) hits 52.0 which is a six-year high.   Part of this is the base effect of a sharp contraction in the Spring where it hit 44.1 in March.  On the other hand, this current recovery is much sharper than the 2020 recovery when in April 2020 it hit 31.3 and only saw numbers around 51 in early 2021.  I think the slow Russian recovery from the 2020 slump can also explain this round of rapid recovery from the sanctions introduced slump of Spring 2022 since that meant there must be a good amount of capacity slack which was never brought back online in the post-2020 recovery.

The Russian [inks]ed Index hit a record high of 112 today.  Which is interesting since it only goes up to 100.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057

One would presume that the Russians moved south of the bridge before blowing it, but one never knows.

Dudchany does bring a whole new strategic area in range of Himars once fully established.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1576946519415980032

Of course, they change hourly right now as the Rascists are having trouble figuring out a front line.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057

One would presume that the Russians moved south of the bridge before blowing it, but one never knows.

Dudchany does bring a whole new strategic area in range of Himars once fully established.

More of an annoyance than anything else. The AFU can easily bypass than a few miles to the north.

Seems they are desperate to buy themselves any time.  There was one Russian telegram post that said the General stopped the retreat by shooting under the wheels.

 

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576993698914611200

What are Rashists front lines doing?

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding Svatove, it's already been Himared pretty good

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1576185434245595136


A very thorough thread with satellite evidence.

[DINGO Joe]

Lukashenko announces mobilization

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1577003767614287872

I know he's rigged elections (or at least the most recent one) and he's locked up people who shouldn't be and maybe has done worse, but damn this [insks]er can troll.