zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,188
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« on: February 26, 2007, 07:53:42 PM » |
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The Democrats will likely control the House for at least 15 yrs.
1) Except in extraordinary times (1974 Watergate), 1994 (the realignment of the South post Reagan), 2006 (Iraq), incumbents win >98% of the time.
2) Many Democratic gains were in democratically leaning districts, they won’t revert
3) A few of the Democratic seats in very heavily Republican districts are likely to switch back, maybe 4-6
4) Democrats now have access to more campaign money from lobbyists and will be better able to compete in 2008 than they were in 2006
5) 2012 redistricting is unlikely to shift more than 6 or so seats, most redistricting will continue to be incumbent protection plans
Bottom line: Democrats will control the House for a long time
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