UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Torrain]

It’s pretty low-key, but there is a parliamentary by-election today, in Stretford and Urmston.
Incumbent MP Kate Green is standing down to become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester under Andy Burnham’s administration.

Looks like it’ll be a safe Labour hold - they got 60% in 2019, to only 27% for the Conservatives. Guess the only question is around the margins.

[Torrain]

Will be interesting to see the minor party results. How much the SDP and Reform eat into the tory vote.

The former will do very little, the latter should be getting a few % if you believe the polls, I’m sceptical.

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.

[Torrain]

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.

So just avoiding your "bad omen" but well short of the "good soft target".  I think it's more consistent with a national score around 5% than the higher ones in some polls.

I think the Lib Dems ought to be disappointed, losing their deposit, being beaten by the Greens and only just avoiding being beaten by Reform UK, though I think they didn't try very hard.

Yeah - a resoundingly meh result for Reform. Although I’m vaguely impressed that they managed to get *exactly the same percentage* that they got in 2019.

On the Lib Dems, I wonder whether they’ve just taken their informal non-aggression thing with Labour as an excuse to sit this one out. Odds are there will be more plausible seats to target at some point next year, if one of Afriye, Hancock, Dorries etc ends up standing down early.

[Torrain]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

Hey - all that matters is election night.

*

The rest is silence.

[Torrain]

Best Labour percentage in this seat - ever.
Worst Conservative percentage in this seat - ever.

[Torrain]

Notably - the Britain Elects/New Statesman model was right on the money for party vote share in the seat.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1623863755284140033
For reference, they currently have Lab 424, Con 138, SNP 42, Lib Dem 22) in their live forecast.

[Torrain]

It's a real shame we never had a by-election under Truss, would any Tory Seat be safe if it was held during her reign ?

Ironically, Rishi Sunak’s seat would probably have been fine.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1641353111829721089

[Torrain]

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. The same part of the world where a certain by-election took place in 1967.

Not totemic at all then…

Joking aside, could be very interesting. First test of Yousaf’s electoral impact, and Labour’s potential for Scottish recovery - in a highly marginal seat. Obviously went SNP in 2015, but then narrowly flipped Labour in 2017. Lots to play for.

Of course, the suspension has to be approved by the Commons first, so we’ll see what happens there…

[Torrain]

I do think there’s a case to made that all the MPs on the committee voted within partisan interest. The SNP and Conservative MPs pushed to shorten the suspension and prevent a by-election, while Labour was gung-ho for one (which probably tells its own story). Perhaps noteworthy though that the lay members of the committee voted for the longer suspension.

Personally, I think constituents should at least have the chance to sign a recall petition - Ferrier hasn’t exactly been a beacon of parliamentary representation or standards, and her breach *was* pretty flagrant. afleitch probably knows a lot more people from that corner of Scotland than I do, but anyone I’ve heard from that neck of the woods sound off has at least been up for the chance to recall/replace her, regardless of party.

[Torrain]

No by-election in Dumfries and Galloway, sounds like Jack has been promised a peerage by Sunak if he sticks around until the next election.

[Torrain]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/andrewlearmonth/status/1660591039747440643

[Torrain]

Yeah - both Labour and SNP have endorsed a recall (and subsequent by-election), so collecting signatures should be one of the easiest parts of the process.

[Torrain]

Commons vote on suspending Ferrier is this evening.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1661749216090406913
*Hearing

[Torrain]

Aye - I’m partial to the speculation that *certain* Conservative MPs don’t want to set the precedent that an MP can be suspended from the Commons for reasons relating to COVID rule breaches…

But also, agree that the votes will be there to suspend her when the Commons comes back from recess. If Sunak couldn’t get that vote through, he’d probably be facing far more coordinated pushback than he is right now.

[Torrain]

Yeah - saw that Michael Crichton Crick had reported on that.

Honestly feel like this could go either way for Payne. If he loses a safe seat with a 20k majority, in a very high-profile by-election, it could be curtains for his political aspirations.

But we could end up having a number of by-elections in quick succession (the three MPs resigning to go to the Lords, and some combination of Ferrier and Johnson - not to mention other MPs embroiled in potential career-killing scandals like Benton, Warburton, Knight, Pincher etc). If Payne is one of, or the only Tory, to win a seat in that batch, he’d probably get a very kind write-up from outlets like the Spectator.

I’m still rooting for 5 simultaneous by-elections, just for the craic of a mini-election night.

[Torrain]

Ferrier suspended - over to the recall petition…

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1666053588043419648

[Torrain]

Huge majority for the Conservatives (24.6k).

But - after Tiverton and Honiton (previous majority of 24.2k), North Shropshire (previous majority of 22.9k), and Chesham and Amersham (previous majority of 16.2k) - I think there's a chance...

In Tiverton, we saw a fairly divided opposition, with Labour in second place. The dynamics of these rural by-elections do favour the Lib Dems setting it up as a two-way fight, if they're given a clear run.

[Torrain]

Apparently, the writ will be moved for two by-elections tomorrow - so they should be up in the next four weeks. But Dorries hasn’t formally resigned yet?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1668669720604684316

(And regarding the previous comment - I hear the weather in Mongolia is lovely at this time of year)*

_{* If it’s not him, then I’ve officially lost track of MP scandals - there’s just too many right now.}

[Torrain]

More Dorries drama, apparently. Obviously subject to change, but seems like a plausible explanation, in absence of an alternative:
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1668920251298332672

[Torrain]

Dorries says her resignation will be delayed until she herself has investigated why she didn’t get a peerage:

There is much speculation about the time at which I become appointed the bailiff of Northstead Manor, as part of the arcane resignation process when standing down as an MP.

To put an end to this…
I am awaiting responses to my Subject Access Requests submitted to HOLAC, Cabinet Secretary and the Cabinet Office.  where I will then take the time to properly consider the information I am provided.

I have requested copies of WhatsApp’s, text messages, all emails and minutes of meetings both formal and informal with names of senior figures un redacted. My office continues to function as normal and will of course continue to serve my constituents of Mid Bedfordshire as we have done for the last 18 yrs until this time.

it is absolutely my intention to resign, but given what I know to be true and the number of varying and conflicting statements issued by No10 since the weekend, this process is now sadly necessary

A number of commentators have broken down why this won’t work for a number of legal reasons, but you probably guessed all that already. For my two cents, I think she wants to muddy the waters so she’s around long enough to speak/vote in the privileges committee debate on Johnson, scheduled for Monday. All bets off after that - could just as easily u-turn again.

[Torrain]

The two confirmed by-elections (Uxbridge South and Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty) have been set for July 20th.

[Torrain]

If Mid Bedfordshire is to be held on the same day the writ needs to be moved and thus Dorries needs to be out of the Commons by next Wednesday.

Odds on her resigning next Thursday?