The Gay Empire State

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http://www.capitaltonight.com/2011/06/3-senate-dems-to-vote-yes-on-marriage/


And on the remaining steps...
http://www.capitaltonight.com/2011/06/parsing-sen-alesi/
http://www.capitaltonight.com/2011/06/lanza-still-a-no-but-that-could-change/

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Kruger's probably going to go to jail before they vote on it again, but I guess getting outed will change your mind on things.

Disagree, his court date is waaay past this legislative session, which ends on the 20th

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Twitter is saying Sen. Alesi will vote yes. 2 more needed if true.

it's true. thread title updated

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Diaz out of the Minority Caucus, fwiw.

I'm skeptical, but hopeful. If it passes, would it be a failure on the part of the Senate Democratic majority two years ago, or a victory for Cuomo?

Both, but a HUGE Cuomo victory -- nowhere else has anyone got gay marriage passed on the back of Republican legislators flip-flopping to support gay marriage

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Not quite true. A bunch of Republican state legislators voted in favor of same-sex marriage in Vermont (of course).

They weren't critical to the passage though, no?

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Haha, fine.

But in NYS, the pressures against the Republican legislators is INTENSE. Mike Long has outright said he'll deny the Conservative Party line to any Republican who votes in favor of this, and all of the swing votes on this issue occupy swing suburban districts where the Conservative line is absolutely essential (many of these swing votes won in 2010 by less than the margin that the Conservative line provided).

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But Bloomberg himself has not threatened to withhold support from "no" voters

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These people have a history of overcounting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/nyregion/03marriage.html

In Albany on Wednesday, proponents had believed going into the vote that they could attract as many as 35 supporters to the measure; at their most pessimistic, they said they would draw at least 26.

That's a silly comparison though -- that was people overcounting votes that were privately said off the record.

All of the current votes counted for gay marriage come from elected officials who have said, on the record and in the press, time and time again, that they will support this bill.

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How many politicians invoke the advice of their dead mother and vote the other way?

Count one more "yes" from the GOP column

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/nyregion/gay-marriage-issue-burden-for-senates-undecided-8.html?_r=1
[quote]
And Senator Andrew Lanza keeps thinking about the words of his recently deceased mother, who urged him, despite his reservations, to back same-sex weddings.

“Be a leader,” she insisted. “Don’t be afraid. Do it.”

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ROY MCDONALD JUST SAID HE'D VOTE YES

1 LEFT

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Senator McDonald: "F*** it, I don't care what you think, I'm trying to do the right thing."

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Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

Alesi ain't a random Upstate Republican, fwiw.

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Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

Alesi ain't a random Upstate Republican, fwiw.

Not sure what else you would consider him, although he does represent a ~60% Obama seat IIRC.

That helps -- and there are rumors about him that mirror those against Carl Kruger

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We should all list ways this can go horribly wrong, because that's probably what's gonna happen.

Everything wrong used to happen when the votes were off the record -- when people hold press conferences to announce their vote, it's waaay more solid than in 2009 when this thing went down

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I agree, Skelos managing to coordinate a maneuver to avoid the vote altogether seems the only thing that can go wrong.

It seems clear that there will be more votes in the State Senate, when push comes to shove, for gay marriage than against it. There are certainly a lot of State Senators who would rather that this vote not come up at all (as voting for it, or against it, constitutes a "lose, lose" decision for them). Of course, five of those State Senators have broken ranks for the marriage equality side already, so there's not a lot of momentum in the opposite direction.

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It passed the State Assembly tonight. At least three NYC Dem Assembly votes (Karim Camara, Nick Perry, Nelson Castro) switched from no to yes from 2009.

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I found the full vote:

http://htmlimg4.scribdassets.com/6mvwnoio00107xpf/images/1-e79fd52199.jpg

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Assemblyman Dov Hikind holding up a Lady Gaga picture during the gay marriage debate:

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/nyregion/stephen-saland-seen-as-pivotal-in-same-sex-marriage-vote.html

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Hm. About 90% sure this isn't even gonna get to the floor now.

I've heard that LGBT advocating insiders in Albany are much more optimistic than the present scenario would indicate from a distance

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WTF?

http://twitter.com/#!/ball4ny/status/81912792394899456

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It actually started to make more sense the more I thought about it -- simply because it lets him broadcast something that seems far more transparent than all of the intense closed door meetings he's been involved in lately.  He wants whatever his decision will be to seem like it's the result of an open thinking process.

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It's actually a positive sign for gay marriage now that I think about it.  It shows that he may be thinking about the Yes/No vote more than the bill being shelved and no vote happening at all.

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Re: Knights of Columbus, are they currently required under state law (I know they aren't under federal law) to rent out for a gay commitment ceremony? If not, how would legalizing gay marriage change that.

It certainly appears that the demands by conservatives are either vacuous or intending to roll back gay rights in areas unrelated to marriage. In no case are they mitigating a change enacted by this law.

I have it on good authority that the opinion of the NYS LGBT community on this issue specifically is: What kind of self-respecting gay man would want to get married in the Knights of Columbus hall?

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OMFG