LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Burr is gettin the ball rolling on reelection with campaign staff and events.

[Miles]

FWIW, I got an email from Mark Harris knocking Ellmers. He's from the wrong part of the state to run against her himself, but she's definitely looking pretty vulnerable, ATM.

[Miles]

LA-01: David Duke is threatening to run against Scalise (*grabbing my popcorn*):

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I was expecting Duke to mention their differences on foreign policy as the main sticking point, but this is why Duke is most frustrated:

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He's also made similar criticizisms of Vitter in the past; that he's co-opted Duke's discourse/ideas for his own personal ends.  

[Miles]

NC-Sen: One of the reasons Burr was on retirement watch for the past few years was because of his relatively low fundraising; looks like he's quickly moving to fix that:

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[pbrower2a]

It's easy for any right-winger to get campaign funds. Just obey the Koch dynasty-in-the-making.

[Miles]

Well, look at that...

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[Miles]

From PPP: Burr approvals same as ever, 34/35/31.

Burr- 45%
Cowell- 38%

Burr- 47%
Foxx- 38%

Burr- 48%
Hagan- 42%

Burr- 44%
McIntyre- 37%

Burr- 44%
Ross- 35%

The Democrats are mostly unkown, too, except for Hagan at 38/54

[Miles]

^ Thom Tillis' NC: tar in the heels but no soap on the hands!

[RogueBeaver]

NC-2: Ellmers slams "childish" behaviour by some pro-life leaders.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: We have a new poll out from Meeting Street Research, dated late January. If you haven't heard of them, neither have I. DKE says the guy who leads this firm was from R-leaning Public Opinion Strategies.

In any case, Burr leads Hagan 49/45, which is similar to PPP. Cooper isn't running for Senate, but they also tested him; he trails 44/41.

[Miles]

PPP says that the approval for Senator Tillis (ugh that phrase just doesn't sound right) is underwater at 32/38. Thats actually more positive than I expected.

Still, it sort of mkaes you wonder how Hagan would have done against a Republican who wasn't as despised as Tillis. She would have likely lost by about the same margin she beat Dole by, instead of only 1.5%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PPP says that the approval for Senator Tillis (ugh that phrase just doesn't sound right) is underwater at 32/38. Thats actually more positive than I expected.

Still, it sort of mkaes you wonder how Hagan would have done against a Republican who wasn't as despised as Tillis. She would have likely lost by about the same margin she beat Dole by, instead of only 1.5%.

Not suprising on Tillis, considering he was elected with favorability in the high 30s.

I highly doubt that Hagan would have actually lost by 9 (the margin she beat Dole by), but I can definitely see a 5 or 6 point loss.

[Miles]

^ I probably should have said that it would have been possible, but towards the lower end for her

I could have seen that being the case if McCrory passed on Governor in 2012 and ran against her, but thats really getting into hypotheticals.

[Miles]

Passings: Cass Ballenger, who represented NC-10 from 1986 to 2004, has died at 88. Before that he was in the Assembly and held office in western NC for almost 40 years altogether. RIP.

[Miles]

NC-03: Despite an (uncomfortably) close primary last cycle, the mavericky Rep. Walker Jones will run again.

He had this to say about the House leadership:

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The expectation is that his challenger, Taylor Griffin, will run again in the primary.

[Miles]

*Sigh* If only this was a campaign issue last year...

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[ElectionsGuy]

NC-03: Despite an (uncomfortably) close primary last cycle, the mavericky Rep. Walker Jones will run again.

He had this to say about the House leadership:

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The expectation is that his challenger, Taylor Griffin, will run again in the primary.

I love this guy. Its unfortunate that so many Republicans would vote against him. The public is not so anti-establishment after all.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Hagan says she wouldn't say yes or no to a political comeback.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Hagan remains top Dem choice but they're also talking to Cowell and considering Senate minority leader Daniel Blue, St. Sen. Jeff Jackson and ex-St. Rep. Grier Martin.

[Miles]

^ Grier Martin is still in office, though he had a redistricting-induced break in his tenure.

Jackson would be good someday, its just not his 'time' yet.  

[IceSpear]

Cowell would be a good candidate. Hagan can wait until 2020 when she's good and anonymous (plus, then she'll be able to exact revenge).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would love for Foxx to jump in and win this seat for the Dems. I think Hagen should sit this one out.


As far as Mitch Landrieu is concerned, he should run for gov. I think the chances of either seat flipping back in the senate is nill unless some new peraon rin.

[Miles]

Well, I hate to say this, but the more I hear about Hagan possibly running again, the more I'm falling in line with the CW. As much as I think she should be the Senate, I don't know if another tough campaign would pay off. Ceteris paribus, I think the deck is too stacked against her.

The main barrier, IMO, seems to be that her favorables are still not good. If they were closer to even, I'd feel differently, but they're still in the 38/50-ish range. She doesn't deserve those types of numbers. It doesn't seem right or fair that her favorables are that low, but it is what it is.

Unless she massively turns around here image she'd need a clearly favorable environment, Burr to make a Dole-esque gaffe, or both. Knowing Burr's style, the latter seems unlikely.

Burr is a slippery fellow. Sure, he's a partisan footsoldier, but he's not an outright loathsome POS like Tillis.

Hagan is a good campaigner, but bigger states are generally harder to work going on personality politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2Nd tier battleground. But, if Roy Cooper gets momemtum, watch out for Hagen.

[Miles]

NC-03: Jones is drawing a second primary challenger in Marine veteran Phil Law; this guy looks like he'd be a third wheel after Jones and Griffin.

Overall, though, this may be a net positive for Jones, as Law could feasibly split the anti-incumbent vote. For example, Law hails from the CD's most populous county, Onslow, which actually voted for Griffin in 2014.