If Trump loses, does the GOP finally take the autopsy report to heart?

[Lechasseur]

No. They have to be losing badly in the sunbelt (including TX) before it sinks in that something close to their current strategy is impossible, and even then, it's likely they'll waste at least one cycle with a candidate who sticks to the old strategies but lives in the sunbelt and can benefit from a home state boost (this would probably mean another Texan nominee, although Cruz is currently a somewhat uncomfortable fit for populists in a Republican primary).

Cruz's contentious and divisive 2016 bid, his close shave (no pun intended) in 2018, his tea party fiscal policies, and goofy-ass howdy doody "I'm a Texan yee haw" persona make him a below average choice for the GOP going forward. 

Ron DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton, or Crenshaw (if you want a Texan that conservatives like) are much better choices going forward.

Agreed. DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton and Crenshaw would all be better GOP presidential nominees than Cruz.

[Lechasseur]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

[Lechasseur]

Probably not. They will conclude that they need a new Trump who isn't Trump. Ted Cruz could have been that person. Maybe he will. Maybe Cotton, Hawley, or some other archconservative with a cowboy name and an elite education will come to the rescue. They just need someone whom the lords will be comfortable with and the serfs will turn out for.

Also, until the GOP decide to seriously move to the left on issues like healthcare and climate change, Trumpism without Trump is their only viable option.

Anything else would fail badly.

[Lechasseur]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board 

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Yeah he was the only establishment figure who ran in 2016 who "got it". He was the only worthwhile one.

[Lechasseur]

Trump also could have just not gone for healthcare reform .


He could have done these 2 things instead :


- Infrastructure Deal which he promised and 50 billion dollars out of the 1 trillion infrastructure package he promised goes to the Wall. It’s partially paid for by withdrawing from Afghanistan

- Immigration: Strictly go after businesses who hire illegal immigrants and punish their employers as well


If he had done this he could actually claim he secured the borders and got an infrastructure package signed which builds up our infrastructure instead of nation building elsewhere

Yeah, if only...

Paul Ryan convinced him to spend all of his political capital on the skinny repeal (which was unpopular) and Tax reform (slightly more popular, but that betrayed his populist message).  If he spent his first year on infrastructure, as Steve Bannon originally intended he would have had a large accomplishment with bi-partisan support, thus increasing his approval rating and reelection prospects.

Well at the very least the Dems controlling the House means Paul Ryan is no longer Speaker.

That's one positive about 2018.

[Lechasseur]

The problem with the autopsy report was it identified the symptoms but didn't identify the cause. The reason the Republicans are needing to campaign so hard right on cultural and social issues is because of the fact their positions on issues like Healthcare, Infrastructure are unpopular with the base.

If they moderated on Healthcare they would have more appeal across the board  

Exactly.

That's what I've been saying for a while too.

That needs to be the first thing the GOP moves left on.

If anything they'll do worse than before if they try following the GOP's 2013 autopsy report.

One reason I supported Kasich was the fact he actually was one of the republicans who had moderates on healthcare.

Problem was the establishment hated Kasich for moderating on the issue and the base viewed it as a surrender to Obama .

Nixon not being able to get his healthcare plan over the finish line is one of the worst things to happen to the GOP politically in the recent past. All that leverage could have been taken off the board 50 years ago.

Yep

Had some sort of decent healthcare plan got passed by Nixon, the GOP would be far stronger today than they are IRL.

I think there are a lot of voters who are pretty conservative in temperament but vote Democratic who'd vote Republican if that and a couple of other things had been fixed earlier.

I actually think in a situation where healthcare reform got passed earlier IRL, I think the Democrats would have likely collapsed in the "heartland" earlier than they did IRL (in other words before the 2010s).

And the GOP would probably be stronger in the blue states today than they are IRL had that happened as well.