2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Illiniwek]

Well, I guess I am going to try to call it a night. We'll see how long I can actually stay away.

While I get the theory of Milwaukee eliminating trump's lead in Wisconsin, it really looks like it Biden might fall just short. Really nervous there, and I don't feel great putting my faith in Georgia. MI and PA are total unknowns at this point.

This is going to end up being a really disappointing night, with sure things of a smaller House majority and Republican Senate. But if Biden can pull this off in the end, even if its close, getting trump out of the White House is a significant victory. I guess we can deal with the tough road ahead after we feel good about that.

I'm leaving things in your hands! Bring this home!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well, I'm going to attempt to sleep, as impossible as that seems right now. Absolutely appalled that this thing is still up in the air. Hard to have much of any hope for this country long term, given what we're seeing. The fact that this race is close at all is just a horrifying judgement on the values of American society, let alone if Trump wins. Nearly half the country is just a straight-up cult.

1000 people a day are dying from this pandemic, the vast majority at this point absolutely preventable had it not been for government mismanagement, and so many people just don't f***ing care. It defies all logic.

America is doomed, no matter who ends up winning. Expect a secession crisis or a civil war within your lifetime.

Remember it is not even half the country. As far as I can see (and I am happy to be corrected if this changes when more results come in), Biden looks to be on pace to win the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton already did.

In a fair and democratically legitimate electoral system, Biden would win. The only way the Republicans have won recently is with minority support, and then they institute a tyranny of the minority.

If it happens yet again that Dems lose the Presidency (not to mention control of the Senate) while winning the popular vote, Dems need to make 100% clear that this will no longer be acceptable and the electoral system must be fundamentally changed in a legitimate and democratically representative system.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323886614972682240?s=20

[justfollowingtheelections]

K friends imma sleep now but before I go a few thoughts:

1. Not the anticipated D wave election on the presidential level by a long shot but probably still a win for Biden. He's probably favored in AZ, WI, NV, and MI and that's all he needs. The fact that Trump still can't count on Georgia (an unexpected bright-ish spot for Dems) and (to a much lesser extent) North Carolina doesn't help either.

2. Legislative humiliation. I'm not sure if the Democrats will net lose seats in the House or not but they certainly aren't picking up an appreciable number as of my writing this. In the Senate, the Democrats are having to claw their way to Susan Collins's seat, which should tell you all you need to know. Once again, I think Georgia might be an unexpected bright-ish spot, but this is a straight up bad performance.

3. I seriously never want to hear another electability case again. Twice in a row we've nominated these ostensibly electable moderates who clearly energize no one after the party put its thumb on the scale, and twice in a row we've been burned. I said this before, but in 2016 Bernie performed well among WWC in the Rust Belt who Clinton lost and in 2020 Bernie performed well among Hispanics who, honestly, Biden might have lost absent COVID. This is just atrocious. All of the states Biden was supposed to lock down were either always going D (Arizona) or always going R (Florida, Ohio, etc.) and a progressive might have actually done better in states like Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. Suffice it to say, barring a real risk of like nuclear war or something, I will not be voting for non-progressive Democrats for president for the foreseeable future, and I encourage any other progressives or even moderates who want to see the party actually win to take a similar pledge. I'm still going to vote and cure ballots for Warnock (and Ossoff if he gets to a runoff), but frankly downballot Dems are running out of goodwill as well.

You think Bernie would have won?

Yes. I think Biden probably won but Bernie's win would have been more comfortable. Obv unprovable, it's a counterfactual, but it's my take

Bernie would have certainly won.  Any functioning adult would have beaten Trump easily.  Biden isn't a functioning adult, and that's why it's so close.

[politics_king]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

If Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then you have two run-off elections in the first week of January for those Senate seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

We've seen nothing out of AK yet.

AK doesn't even count a majority of its votes until a week after election day, IIRC.

[GoTfan]

Well, I guess I am going to try to call it a night. We'll see how long I can actually stay away.

While I get the theory of Milwaukee eliminating trump's lead in Wisconsin, it really looks like it Biden might fall just short. Really nervous there, and I don't feel great putting my faith in Georgia. MI and PA are total unknowns at this point.

This is going to end up being a really disappointing night, with sure things of a smaller House majority and Republican Senate. But if Biden can pull this off in the end, even if its close, getting trump out of the White House is a significant victory. I guess we can deal with the tough road ahead after we feel good about that.

I'm leaving things in your hands! Bring this home!

Trump will win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for sure. Georgia will be a recount that Biden will likely lose.

[Calthrina950]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

If Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then you have two run-off elections in the first week of January for those Senate seats.

That's true. Hopefully Democrats might be able to pull that out.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

K friends imma sleep now but before I go a few thoughts:

1. Not the anticipated D wave election on the presidential level by a long shot but probably still a win for Biden. He's probably favored in AZ, WI, NV, and MI and that's all he needs. The fact that Trump still can't count on Georgia (an unexpected bright-ish spot for Dems) and (to a much lesser extent) North Carolina doesn't help either.

2. Legislative humiliation. I'm not sure if the Democrats will net lose seats in the House or not but they certainly aren't picking up an appreciable number as of my writing this. In the Senate, the Democrats are having to claw their way to Susan Collins's seat, which should tell you all you need to know. Once again, I think Georgia might be an unexpected bright-ish spot, but this is a straight up bad performance.

3. I seriously never want to hear another electability case again. Twice in a row we've nominated these ostensibly electable moderates who clearly energize no one after the party put its thumb on the scale, and twice in a row we've been burned. I said this before, but in 2016 Bernie performed well among WWC in the Rust Belt who Clinton lost and in 2020 Bernie performed well among Hispanics who, honestly, Biden might have lost absent COVID. This is just atrocious. All of the states Biden was supposed to lock down were either always going D (Arizona) or always going R (Florida, Ohio, etc.) and a progressive might have actually done better in states like Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada. Suffice it to say, barring a real risk of like nuclear war or something, I will not be voting for non-progressive Democrats for president for the foreseeable future, and I encourage any other progressives or even moderates who want to see the party actually win to take a similar pledge. I'm still going to vote and cure ballots for Warnock (and Ossoff if he gets to a runoff), but frankly downballot Dems are running out of goodwill as well.

You think Bernie would have won?

Yes. I think Biden probably won but Bernie's win would have been more comfortable. Obv unprovable, it's a counterfactual, but it's my take

Bernie would have certainly won.  Any functioning adult would have beaten Trump easily.  Biden isn't a functioning adult, and that's why it's so close.

Even Hillary would have run a better campaign than Biden.

[Alben Barkley]

In hindsight, I guess it WAS dumb to think 2020 would give us a clear and easy victory in this election. Of course it has to be as chaotic as possible.

[Roll Roons]

Another thing to consider about Wisconsin - it's not just Milwaukee. Trump is currently up by 22 points in Kenosha, with 40% left to count. Doubt that lead holds. Biden's leads are also exceeding Hillary's in Eau Claire and La Crosse, with 7% left in each. There is hope there.

[Storr]

Trump speaking now...

[Bootes Void]

Whens Milwaukee dropping?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

If Ossoff keeps Perdue under 50% then you have two run-off elections in the first week of January for those Senate seats.

That's true. Hopefully Democrats might be able to pull that out.

How those elections would go depend greatly on who wins the Electoral College

[politics_king]

It'll be a crazy day tomorrow. Trump will have a full on meltdown this week if he loses the election.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The eventual winner is speaking.

[American2020]

According to Nate Silver

One thing to keep in mind about Pennsylvania is that the mail votes were VERY blue there — Democrats led 66 percent to 23 percent on them by party registration. So although Trump’s lead is larger there than in Wisconsin or Michigan, Biden should also get a stronger blue shift there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump beginning speaking.

[politics_king]

Here comes Trump to s*** talk.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

That's true. Hopefully Democrats might be able to pull that out.

That's what she said.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Already attacking mail-in ballots.

[Astatine]

I just muted my laptop.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323888157851615233?s=20

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

“It is also clear that we have won Georgia”.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"It's also clear we've won Georgia" - Trump