If Steve Bullock is part of the ticket, will he win Yellowstone County?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yellowstone County, Montana, is on of the few strange statewide biggest counties that refuse to vote go Democrat in presidential elections. The last it supported the Democratic candidate was ... well, you know the stock answer.
But what happens if Governor Bullock is on the ticket, be it as a presidential candidate or as a running mate (presumably under Warren)? Could the county's voting trend be broken with his aid? Admittedly, he lost that county in both his gubernatorial elections - but only by about 1% either time, while both Obama and Clinton lost it by over 20%. Moreover, that county is prone to vote third party: In 2016, neither Donald nor Hillary got the vote of 10.5% of the inhabitants; in 1996 and 1980, 11.7% refused to vote for the two front-runners. What do you think?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Assuming Trump has a 40% approval like he does now, Bullock loses Yellowstone by about 5. Trump's approval will have to be around 35% for him to win it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Probably not.... But its possible if Trump is really unpopular. Tester won it in 2020

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Probably not.... But its possible if Trump is really unpopular. Tester won it in 2020

You certainly mean 2012.
Yes, that's very strange. How did Tester manage to win it? Is he from there?

[Lord Halifax]

Yellowstone County, Montana, is on of the few strange statewide biggest counties that refuse to vote go Democrat in presidential elections. The last it supported the Democratic candidate was ... well, you know the stock answer.

1964?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yellowstone County, Montana, is on of the few strange statewide biggest counties that refuse to vote go Democrat in presidential elections. The last it supported the Democratic candidate was ... well, you know the stock answer.

1964?

There are two numbers that are the answers to anything: 42 and 1964.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Only Jon Tester can, and by double digits at that.

Do you know why Yellowstone County is that Republican despite being the most populous county?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yellowstone Montana was the narrowest Republican County win throughout all the Gubernatorial Elections in 2016.

[136or142]

Yes, if he hands out picinic baskets.

[TML]

Only Jon Tester can, and by double digits at that.

Do you know why Yellowstone County is that Republican despite being the most populous county?

My best guess is that this is a case of suburban/exurban/rural Republican margins drowning out urban Democratic margins. Democrats are strongest within the city of Billings proper, while Republicans are strongest elsewhere.

[UncleSam]

I’m not from Montana but when I stayed in Billings it didn’t really seem Urban at all. Just a typical suburbia stretch one might find in the Chicago or LA suburbs in a sea of farmland and cows.

Could just be where I stayed obviously. But my impression was that it wasn’t remotely similar to a real urban area like Seattle or Chicago.

Also Bullock would get stomped in a national election there. Governor’s races are a lot stranger and more flexible than presidential ones. Would Trump win Baltimore county if Hogan were on the ticket is a totally different question from how will Hogan do there in November.