CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Gass3268]

So I don’t know if you guys have caught this yet, but there’s going to be a press conference this afternoon between Larry Elder, and MeToo figure Rose McGowan. McGowan has spent the last week alleging that Newsom’s wife acted on behalf of Hollywood figures to try and “silence” her testimony regarding guys like Weinstein, who she was among the first to accuse.

McGowan appears a little unstable right now, having had several public outbursts (including a screaming match with a trans activist, a bizarre Colbert appearance, and declaring she was leaving the US forever a few years back). She got on team Tara Reade early on, and stuck around even after it was discredited.

I appreciate that the woman has a lot of trauma, and I don’t mean to ridicule her. I only bring this up because she’s going to hold a joint press conference with Elder (who has his own domestic issues, ie pulling a weapon on his ex), to either broadly attack Newsom, or endorse Elder.

Maybe this will be nothing, and I highly doubt it’s going to win Elder many/any votes. But it felt newsworthy enough to give you guys a heads up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/1437064816984682500

Based on the tweets I'm seeing, this press conferences is as off the rails as you can imagine.

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1437145638756491274

[Holmes]

I’m so excited for Tuesday so that we never have to hear about Larry Elder ever again. Maybe Newsom can expel him from the state too?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So far, the only outlets that seem to be covering this press conference are Fox News, The Sun & The Daily Mail. No state news outlet, no regional news outlet, no local news outlet

[Continential]

So far, the only outlets that seem to be covering this press conference are Fox News, The Sun & The Daily Mail.

All just a nothing-burger

It tells a lot when two of them are British newspapers.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m so excited for Tuesday so that we never have to hear about Larry Elder ever again. Maybe Newsom can expel him from the state too?

Sadly Elder seems exactly like the type of person who will believe that his domination of the recall ballot - facilitated by blank Dem votes of course - is a good platform from which to launch a Presidential campaign. His affinity with the extremists and recognition of "fraud" are two things that would play well if Trump does not run.

[Torrain]

So I don’t know if you guys have caught this yet, but there’s going to be a press conference this afternoon between Larry Elder, and MeToo figure Rose McGowan. McGowan has spent the last week alleging that Newsom’s wife acted on behalf of Hollywood figures to try and “silence” her testimony regarding guys like Weinstein, who she was among the first to accuse.

McGowan appears a little unstable right now, having had several public outbursts (including a screaming match with a trans activist, a bizarre Colbert appearance, and declaring she was leaving the US forever a few years back). She got on team Tara Reade early on, and stuck around even after it was discredited.

I appreciate that the woman has a lot of trauma, and I don’t mean to ridicule her. I only bring this up because she’s going to hold a joint press conference with Elder (who has his own domestic issues, ie pulling a weapon on his ex), to either broadly attack Newsom, or endorse Elder.

Maybe this will be nothing, and I highly doubt it’s going to win Elder many/any votes. But it felt newsworthy enough to give you guys a heads up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/1437064816984682500

Based on the tweets I'm seeing, this press conferences is as off the rails as you can imagine.

Yeah - I read Weigel’s run-down of the press conference, and it sounds like a car crash.
Mostly seems to be the two of them ranting.

[Gass3268]

So far, the only outlets that seem to be covering this press conference are Fox News, The Sun & The Daily Mail. No state news outlet, no regional news outlet, no local news outlet

Dave Weigel is the only legitimate reporter I've seen covering the event.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1437154909879627778?s=20

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1437155593144262657?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Rose McGowan is a pathetic attention-seeker whose vanity and insanity might well have singlehandedly derailed MeToo.

This is nothing new; her ridiculous "allegations" against Bill Maher were the straw that broke the camel's back. Time everyone ignores this crazy woman until she gets the mental help she so clearly, desperately needs.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1437243920845393930?s=21

[DaleCooper]

"California Recall Comes Down to the Wire" - ABC News.

[Lief 🗽]

"California Recall Comes Down to the Wire" - ABC News.

There's a reason we call them the Enemy of the People...

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1437243920845393930?s=21

This just doesn't add up. The polls have newsom surviving about 57-43.

That's 15 points lower than Biden's victory in 2020, when OC went for him by 9.

If Newsom survives by 14 and wins OC or barely loses it......then where else in CA did he lose more relative support?

Romney lost CA by 25 points while winning OC by 7.

In 2014, jerry brown won CA by 21 points and lost OC by 11 points

If Newsom ends up winning OC, then there is some other area/region of California where his support has collapsed to make it a 15 point underperformance for him compared to biden.

[Sbane]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

[Matty]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

[Oryxslayer]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

You do realize Newsom lost a few of the seats Dems won in 2018? And the gubernatorial elections in general - especially weird ones like this - can and do have a wider range of outcomes than the polarized national results? (though not as wide as the ginormous landslide potentials of yesteryear) I do think the district breakdown of yes/no will be interesting, but taking it any further is asking to be disappointed.

[Matty]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

You do realize Newsom lost a few of the seats Dems won in 2018? And the gubernatorial elections in general - especially weird ones like this - can and do have a wider range of outcomes than the polarized national results? (though not as wide as the ginormous landslide potentials of yesteryear) I do think the district breakdown of yes/no will be interesting, but taking it any further is asking to be disappointed.

I know, but it's all we have at this point, lol.

VA is also sort of a foregone conclusion, but perhaps the results there on a district level might be informative than what happens in CA? Who knows.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

At this point, I'm only interested in the following:

1. If No gets 60% or higher
2. How Orange, Riverside & San Bernardino votes on the recall
3. How much Kevin Faulconer gets & where he places
4. Who enters/drops out of the 2022 gubernatorial race in the next few months

[wbrocks67]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Everything is pointing to a 20-22 pt race at this point so I'd say it makes sense

[Pollster]

Am hearing from some that in the last week Dems have been so confident of Newsom's safety that they have turned their attention to turning out base voters/low-propensity Latinos in McCarthy/Valadao/Nunes/Issa's districts to flex muscle and show strength going into the midterms.

[wbrocks67]

Am hearing from some that in the last week Dems have been so confident of Newsom's safety that they have turned their attention to turning out base voters/low-propensity Latinos in McCarthy/Valadao/Nunes/Issa's districts to flex muscle and show strength going into the midterms.

This is smart. If they can get strong numbers in these districts in an off year 2021 election, it will bode better for them going into next year.

Latino numbers have been the softest across the board so far, so interesting to see if the ground game can tick those numbers up.

[Sbane]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

Katie porters district is the reason why I think there is a decent chance OC votes to keep Newsom. Looks like that is the sort of place that will save Newsom from an embarrassingly close call.

[wbrocks67]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

Katie porters district is the reason why I think there is a decent chance OC votes to keep Newsom. Looks like that is the sort of place that will save Newsom from an embarrassingly close call.

......? this isn't 4 weeks ago. the recall is looking to top 20% for no.

[Sbane]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

Katie porters district is the reason why I think there is a decent chance OC votes to keep Newsom. Looks like that is the sort of place that will save Newsom from an embarrassingly close call.

......? this isn't 4 weeks ago. the recall is looking to top 20% for no.

Right, and my point is that its keep+20 due to districts like Katie Porters in OC. Other areas that will be strong for him will be the Bay Area, coastal SD and non-hollywood well-educated areas in LA County such as the PV peninsula, parts of the San Fernando valley, Pasadena etc.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.