Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[elcorazon]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think?

Are you a Conservative? I know that among my Reform community Obama has incredible support (and I live in Washington which already loves Obama), but I think he doesn't do as well among Orthodox or Conservatives.

You definitely are in the minority... I've actually never met a Republican Jew in person.

I know tons of Republican Jews.  My brother in law is one (he's in Texas though).  Know many in Kentucky, and even a bunch in the chicagoland area.  They're everywhere.  Orthodox Jews are often conservative, by the way.  It's the assimilated and Reform Jews who tend to be liberal.

[elcorazon]

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

do the terms "arrogant" and "broken record" ring a bell to anyone?

[elcorazon]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Obama is walking away with this one.

why do you find this entertaining or humorous?  there are a few partisans who claim obama is going to win easy.  there are a few other more objective analysts who agree.  you yourself claim that summer polling is pretty crummy.  with all that said, you persist each time a poll shows the race tight or tightening to sarcastically comment as if 90% of the board were regularly claiming this won't be a close race.

[elcorazon]

a few, maybe, but if you're going to make the same sarcastic comment over and over and over and over, you better be calling out more than a few people.

[elcorazon]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

[elcorazon]

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.

why?  it will be all weekday numbers, no?

[elcorazon]

the issue is not whether to oppose aggression.  the issue is who is the aggressor.

I suppose you also believe that it would have been easy to oppose the us invasion of iraq because clearly, we were the aggressor.  Unfortunately, life and aggression and war is never that simple.

[elcorazon]

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

[elcorazon]

Obama 45 (nc)

McCain 43 (-1)

Probably a good sample for McCain that dropped.

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.

Saturday's might have been the high one.

Tomorrow will be all weekdays, so likely McCain moves in front...  could be since 1) Sunday must've been a decent day for Obama and it will drop tomorrow; and 2) Polls seem to show mccain moving ahead nationally right now, so even without a midweek bump, one might think McCain will move ahead tomorrow.

I think if McCain fails to move at least even, this will be evidence against a midweek/weekend bias of some sort.

[elcorazon]

I think the race is pretty damn even right now.

I think McCain has a good chance to pull ahead in time for election day.

I think the midweek bounce was a decent hypothesis that likely doesn't exist.

I think Walter Mitty is a useless waste of human flesh.

[elcorazon]

August 22, 2008

Obama:  45 (nc)

McCain:  44 (nc)


Absolutely static.

at least until Obama gets his weekend bump.  that should start with tomorrow's numbers and continue building thru Monday's, then Tues thru thurs should turn down again, right?  although I guess the veep/convention could change things, huh?

[elcorazon]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

[elcorazon]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

[elcorazon]

Obama's lost the weekend bounce as well.   He's weakening.

possibly.  or mccain's lost the weekday bounce.  or there never really was one.  or this is a bad sample. or it's summer...  you get the idea.

No, that's why I was waiting a few days to see if the "bad sample" dropped out.  It's probably a dead heat or a slight McCain lead (less than 0.5% at best).  For all practical purposes, Obama walked into the Convention tied.  That's been about 6-8 weeks of erosion. 

I agree it's really close right now, BUT, I'm not sure how you can surmise McCain is the one who MIGHT be ahead.  I mean, in the last 10 days+, it's either been tied or Obama's been ahead consistently.  And Obama's been more likely to be ahead in other polls as well, both tracking and otherwise.

I'd put the race at even - Obama +1.5% or so, right now, going into the convention.

The best obama can hope for I'd say, is to come out of the convention  +5-6%, and to not lose it all by the end of the republican convention.  way to soon to start guessing at that though.

I give a very slight Bradley Effect (less than 1%), but poresent.  I also realize that Obama does  temd to do better on weekends, yet he's still slumping, holding.  I think, out there in the ether, it is a possibly a slight lead for McCain (very slight).

I seem to have been correct.

based on one poll showing mccain in front.  Let's wait a few days and see if that lead holds up... or are you willing to use this day's tracking poll as the standard for judging whatever convention "bounce" might occur?

[elcorazon]

Yep, PUMA.

I suspect Obama will be up 6 or 7 by Monday.  Wall to wall lovefest in Denver plus another "tingle" speech in front of 75K cultists chanting the messiah's name and giving the O sign.  Nurenburg all over again.

but the elitism that will be oozing from the convention is bound to cost him a couple of points.  I predict that by next Monday Obama's up no more than 1-2%

[elcorazon]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Go Yankees is Obama!!! Wow.  I had no idea.

[elcorazon]

Not good news for Obama.  It should have closed.

He's only down by 2 points.

It really doesn't matter.

It makes no sense to microanalyze day by day tracking poll trends and then deem such gains or losses as "bad news" for a candidate. Especially when the race is this close.

There should have been a weekend bounce for Obama.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

You are flirting dangerously close to violating that one.
 

Go Yankees is Obama!!! Wow.  I had no idea.

Same holds true for the supports.  It's gotten close a few times.

If the rule applies across the board to all supporters, then it really is a dumb rule... if only for the fact that it gets violated ALL THE TIME by nearly every campaign at some point.

If you limit it to official parts of the campaign itself, then at least it COULD  be relevant.

[elcorazon]

LOL. But how will JJ spin this one?

"Obama should be up at least 5 points. This is not good news for Obama."



Because in J.J.'s world, nothing is ever bad for McCain.

No it's a good result for Obama.  In theory, McCain should be going up due to the mid week bounce.  If he just holds, it meant the race was tightening.  Now, if McCain doesn't pick up over the next three days, it is great news for Obama.

OR the midweek bounce was a mirage based on not enough data and this is just noise in the data and it's been close all along.
OR McCain had a nice bounce for a couple weeks and that bounce has faded and we are going back to the basic race which is slight lean obama.
OR there's a bad high Obama sample for yesterday mucking up the numbers.

[elcorazon]

probably just the weekend bounce.  i'll let you know by thursday if this is real or not.

[elcorazon]

this could be dramatically good news for McCain.  high weekend numbers remained for Obama.  I will let you know by Thursday if this is real.

[elcorazon]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

I vehemently disagree.  People just assume polls are the gospel, or they assume the are junk.  We know neither is true.  They are actually doing a service for those paying attention by basically saying, all we can do is ask people who they are voting for and some other basic questions.  After that, we don't control what happens.  Some people will say they are voting and not vote.  Some people will vote for years and then not vote.  Some people will vote for the very first time this year.  Having 3 sets of numbers might help analyze what happens after the fact.

Ultimately it is OK that we don't know FOR SURE the state of the election every second (much as I'd like to know it); we'll all find out in 6 days.

[elcorazon]

Thursday, October 30th, 2008

RV
Obama: 50% (-1)
McCain: 42% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 50% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

because the weekend is not reflected in these numbers, McCain should be doing better.  Let's see what happens this weekend with the Obama bounce.  If Obama fails to extend his lead, then this would mean that something is wrong here and the race is still tight.

[elcorazon]

as registration gets easier and more and more people register, it becomes more likely that the % of those registered would go down...  plus the traditional model is based on past voting behavior and a lot of those who are now registered have never voted before.