New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[Woody]

I am already getting Georgia 08' flashbacks, there were tons of columns of articles back then predicting a Russian invasion on the months leading up to it, and them mounting up troops at the Southern Millitary District.

Zelensky pushing his troops in Donbass & now publicly asking for NATO membership (a desperate move I might add) is only giving Putin a great opportunity to impress his people once again, and will give him a pretext and a mandate for another campaign in Ukraine, which will most likely be a swift one.

[Woody]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665

A top Russian official has warned that Moscow could intervene to help Russian-speaking residents in eastern Ukraine if Ukraine launches an all-out assault on separatists there.

Russia has also been building up troops on the border with Ukraine.

The official, Dmitry Kozak, said that Russian forces could intervene to "defend" its citizens.

"Everything depends on the scale of the conflagration," he said.

He also warned that an escalation could mark the "beginning of the end" for Ukraine - "not a shot in the leg, but in the face".

In Moscow, Mr Kozak likened the current situation of the separatists to Srebrenica, the town in Bosnia-Hercegovina where 8,000 Muslim men were killed by Bosnian Serb forces in 1995.

"If, as our president says, there is a Srebrenica there, we shall probably have to come to their defence," Mr Kozak said. He is the deputy head of Russia's presidential administration.

[Woody]

Biden...
May god help Ukraine, because the US won't.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1382431662546505731?s=20

LOL

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1384129979416399873

[Woody]

Video apparently from Belarus, Vitebsk:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1384196001825656837

[Woody]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

[Woody]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

[Woody]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution  
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

Interestingly, the electoral districts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts that are under control of the government all voted for the pro-Russian party in the 2019 Presidential election (in the first round anyway, the pro-Russian candidate didn't make it to the second round). So, despite not being under separatist control, just how pro-Kiev the populations of those parts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts is questionable.

2019 Presidential election 1st Round:

Yeah. The East-West divide is even more clear from the previous presidential elections. The Oblasts around Odessa & Oblasts east of the Dniepr were the base of the Party of Regions:

2010:

2004:

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1384594301947162628?s=20

Was just going to post this... I think this just seals the deal for what is going to happen, a new military campaign, the biggest campaign conducted by Russia since the Afghan-Soviet war.