New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[Karpatsky]

Consensus in my circles is this is likely for Russian domestic consumption and/or as a stress test of Western solidarity. Russian MO for actual kinetic aggression would preclude preparations this visible.

[Karpatsky]

Any predictions on what Putin will have to say about this in his annual adress come April 21st? Some are saying that he is going to announce the recognition of the LNR and DNR.

1: Recognition of the LNR and DNR
2: Annexation of Belarus
3: Navalny death/execution 
4: Declaration of War on Ukraine
5: Nothing...

Surely not. He doesn't need a declaration of war to take LNR and DNR, as Ukraine doesn't have de facto control over the region anyway.

Source: https://liveuamap.com/ - Very informative map. I advise everyone to look at this at the coming days.

The Ukrainian army has huge chunks of both Oblasts under it's control at the moment, however, the capitols of Donetsk and Luhansk are still under seperatist control, albeit both cities not far away from the frontline.

Interestingly, the electoral districts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts that are under control of the government all voted for the pro-Russian party in the 2019 Presidential election (in the first round anyway, the pro-Russian candidate didn't make it to the second round). So, despite not being under separatist control, just how pro-Kiev the populations of those parts of Donetsk and Lughansk Oblasts is questionable.

2019 Presidential election 1st Round:

This is true but somewhat misleading, as Boiko took both oblasts by pluralities - ~35% in Donetsk and ~45% in Luhansk, and in both oblasts the vote was about 50/50 in the first round when summing up 'pro-Russian' (defined extremely loosely as former Regionaires) and other candidates. And a vote for such candidates is not in and of itself evidence of separatist sympathies, though doubtless some would like to interpret it that way.