New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[GlobeSoc]

To me, this kind of buildup is odd - if Putin was going for a limited objective I would think he would strike already before anyone has time to react? I was expecting this story to fizzle out a few days ago in any case.

While it is still unlikely because of the high possibility of this being a move for domestic consumption, the fact that Russia is taking its time to build up indicates a larger objective, perhaps a corridor to crimea offensive or even a full scale push to the Dnieper.

Mainly I'm just confused, I don't think he needs a big win that much right now, even with the nalvany thing. The only other thing I can think of is the legislative elections, but shouldn't he be able to ensure a good result for United Russia anyway?

I doubt that a campaign would go quite as smoothly as last time, even if it is a quick one. The conditions for uprisings and little green men don't particularly exist in Ukraine's remaining territory, especially in a lot of the areas they would need to solve the Crimean water situation. Casualty rated would be comparatively high on both sides, with amphibious assaults and tank battles in play.

For the us part, I expect that they won't react initially beyond sanctions and diplomatic channels. If the Ukrainian army holds the Russians back from their objectives long enough, perhaps we'll throw a ton of equipment and advisors at them.

Even if we wanted to, a full scale intervention in Ukraine could risk opportunistic attacks by China against Taiwan in October should we commit too much and the conflict get dragged out too long. Unlike Ukraine, the us is unofficially obligated to defend taiwan and we would look like idiots if we couldn't do so because we were busy helping someone we weren't obligated to.

The only way we'd intervene fully is if an offensive into Ukraine was launched a few days before or after a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and the Chinese have not done that kind of buildup at the moment.

[GlobeSoc]

Oh s**t it’s happening. It’s blatantly obvious the Russians want to find any excuse for an invasion as possible.
We can not allow any bit of Ukraine to fall to the Russians. We must stand strong against their attempts at recreating their awful empire, and Putin’s expansionism can’t be tolerated. This is eerily similar to the justification dictators such as Hitler used to takeover Sudentenland. While Putin is no Hitler, the point remains.
Appeasement will not work, and a clear line must be drawn now, or we risk endangering all our new allies in Eastern Europe.

The main difference is that Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. Putin does.

While Russia must be stopped from taking over Ukraine, that cannot be allowed to trigger WW3 either.

Putin isn't a madman. He knows what'll happen if he uses nukes in an armed conflict with the US. It's in the interest of both sides to keep any armed confrontation conventional.

the problem with that is that if direct conflict between nuclear powers does not escalate into nuclear war immediately, that may make political decisionmakers more likely to escalate disputes and cause the number of wars to increase quickly.