2024 South Korean legislative election (April 10th)

[Logical]

E-day ballots are counted first, then early and finally postal and expat votes. Conservatives always do better on e-day so those early leads may be a red mirage.

[jaichind]

If the exit polls are roughly correct then things look pretty good for Lee Jae-Myung in 2027.

It seems every ROK Prez from the Democratic camp has to lose first before coming back to win in the next election.  Kim Dae-Jung had to lose first in 1992 before winning in 1997.  Moon Jae-In had to lose first in 2012 before winning in 2017.  And very likely Lee Jae-Myung will have to lose first in 2022 before winning (likely) in 2027.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       75
DPK      43

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       88
DPK       54
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[jaichind]

Exit poll by FPTP district.  For sure does not match results so far but most likely that is result of count bias

[Logical]

Current standing for PR seats
PFP 21
DAK 15
RKP 10

[jaichind]

Current standing for PR seats
PFP 21
DAK 15
RKP 10

Looks like underperformance by RKP so far

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      111
DPK       68
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[MRCVzla]

Watched each one of the exit polls from the YT broadcast, i tried to translate each one:
KBS
Democratic+Coalition 178-196
People Powe+People Future 87-105
Green-Justice  0-0
New Future 0-2
New Reform 1-4
Rebuilding Korea 12-14
Progressive 0-2

FPTP seats
Democratic 142 (166-182)
People Power 53 (70-86)
New Future 1 (0-2)
New Reform 0 (0-1)
Progressive 1 (0-2)
Close race 57

PR seats
People Future 17-19 (35.1%)
Rebuilding Korea 12-14 (26.3%)
Democratic Coalition 12-14 (26.2%)
New Reform 1-3 (3.9%)
New Future 0 (2.0%)
Green Justice 0 (1.8%)
Liberal Unification 0 (2.5%)

MBC
Democratic+Coalition 184-197
People Power+People Future 85-99
Green-Justice 0-0
New Future 1-1
New Reform 2-2
Rebuilding Korea 12-14
Independents+Others 0-3

FPTP seats
Democratic 142
People Power 53
New Future 1
Independents+Others 1
Close race 57

SBS
Democratic+Coalition 183-197
People Power+People Future 85-100
Green-Justice 0-0
New Future 1-1
New Reform 1-4
Rebuilding Korea 12-14
Independents+Others 0-6

FPTP seats
Democratic 171-183
People Power 69-81
Green-Justice 0-0
New Future 1-1
New Reform 0-1
Independents+Others 0-4

PR seats
Democratic Coalition 13 (12-14)
People Future 18 (16-19)
Green-Justice 0-0
New Future 0-0
New Reform 1-3 (2)
Rebuilding Korea 12-14 (13)
Others 0-2 (0)

JTBC
Democratic+Coalition 168-193
People Power+People Future 87-11
Green-Justice 0-1
New Future 0-2
New Reform 1-4
Liberal Unification 0-2
Progressive 1-2
Rebuilding Korea 11-15
Independent+Others 0-1

FPTP seats (254 seats)
Democratic 158-179
People Power 71-92
Green-Justice 0-0
New Future 0-1
New Reform 0-1
Liberal Unification 0-0
Progressive 1-2
Independent+Others 0-1

PR seats (46 seats)
Democratic Coalition 10-14
People Future 16-19
Green-Justice 0-1
New Future 0-1
New Reform 1-3
Liberal Unification 0-2
Rebuilding Korea 11-15
Others 0-0

[jaichind]

I am looking at Gangwon's results.  Exit polls have this entire area as a tossup but with nearly 14% of the vote in the PPP vote share lead seems pretty solid (~10% or more).  If this is still the case with 30% of the vote counted then there is a chance exit polls might have underestimated PPP

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      126
DPK       71
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      123
DPK       87
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK finally starting to make gains

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      125
DPK       94
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK continues gains as more votes come in and start to converge toward exit polls

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      126
DPK        98
NRP          1
Ind            1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK leads about to go into triple digits

[Logical]

The Assad margins DPK gets in Jeolla and the PPP gets in Daegu/North Gyeongsang will never not be hilarious.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      128
DPK       104
NRP          1
PP             1
Ind            1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK finally over 100

[Logical]

PR section (1.6% counted)
PFP 41.25% - 21 seats
DAK 25.25% - 13 seats
RKP 21.05% - 11 seats
NRP 3.06% - 1 seat
LUP 2.71%
GJP 1.86%
NFP 1.63%

[Logical]

DPK overtakes PPP in FPTP seats per Chosun

DPK 120
PPP 118
PP 2
IND 1
NFP 1
NRP 1

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      122
PPP       117
PP            2
NRP          1
NFP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK takes the lead

[jaichind]

Gangwon count is over 32%.  PPP is behind in 1 seat but overall has a strong vote share lead.  Exit polls had most of this area as a tossup.  DPK will win of course by a good margin but there is now reason to believe exit polls most likely underestimated PPP somewhat.

[Logical]

The two seats where the Progressives are leading are seats where DPK aren't standing and backs them as part of the DPK led front.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      136
PPP       109
PP            1
NFP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK expands lead.  Convergence toward exit polls

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      142
PPP       108
PP            2
NFP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[Logical]

PR section (3.4% counted)
PFP 40.81% - 21 seats
DAK 25.60% - 13 seats
RKP 21.20% - 11 seats
NRP 3.13% - 1 seat
LUP 2.68%
GJP 1.88%
NFP 1.63%

A third of the ballots counted comes from Gyeongsang and Daegu while Jeolla and Jeju has barely reported yet so the PFP number will go down much further.

[Oryxslayer]

Exit poll by FPTP district.  For sure does not match results so far but most likely that is result of count bias

Notably this is the Seoul region under that Exit Poll. Yes there are quite a few close races, but they are all tipped towards the DPK. which leads to Gagnam standing out like a blemish. Someone had questions about this a few days ago so I figured it would be nice to follow up.