Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So unconfirmed social media reports is that Putin has had the Chief Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet arrested, which probably means Putin is going to pull a Darth Vader on him if true.

Not really a scapegoat though, the guy was on the Moskva and thus made the choice to pursue a Ukrainian drone. I believe they shot down the drone but in the process put the ship in a blind spot which allowed the Neptune missiles to hit it. Taking the bait was an amateur mistake.

There's now way for Russia to replace the Moskva because they only have two other comparable ships and neither is in particularly good working order. Even if they were or if Russia opted to ignore this, they can't make it to the Black Sea without going through the straight in Turkey, which won't let them in. And the Moskva was also shielding the rest of the Black Sea Fleet from the Neptunes, it was the only ship in the fleet with a notable anti-missile defense. Hence why the rest of the fleet has withdrawn to safe areas. They can't go out again without being exposed to the anti-ship defenses.

So Ukraine actually has naval superiority now. Who would've ever expected that?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Men's Volleyball World Championship was scheduled the be held in Russia this year but it has been moved to Poland and Russia has been banned. So their spot was given to the team ranked next in line.

And what country's team was that? Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/adfghijklm/status/1514755066192105474
https://twitter.com/volleyballworld/status/1514909772021174275

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1514932901418254339

This is the guy who was told "go f[inks] yourself" and the guy who said it is now alive and home.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Now that we know his name Ukraine should put a bounty on Roman Bykovsky. A bonus to any soldier who can confirm him being captured/killed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good for Italy. They also addressed the now commonly used loophole of Russian ships being "leased" to random little Caribbean and Pacific Island countries to avoid Russian flags.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1515313977798139907

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Putin is definitely getting skittish.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1516037482386763782

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I increasingly believe we will see at least a limited nuclear exchange of some kind at some point during this war.

If it looks like he's in danger of losing the war, or losing power outright, Putin will lash out.

Putin is evil and a sociopath, but he is not insane. He is only pretending to act unstable to scare NATO and the West. Putin knows that using nuclear weapons would lead to Russia wiped off the face of the map.

I have no idea if he's insane, but he is incredibly stupid. Stupidity is arguably more dangerous than insanity. You can't assume Putin is not stupid enough to believe that nuking a city won't lead to war with the West.

Even if Putin is that stupid, those below him aren't. Furthermore nuking a city in Ukraine would hurt Russia significantly as well, plenty of winds from that location blow into Russia and population centers. It would be like the US nuking Mexico, which would render the southwest uninhabitable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In his latest address Zelenskyy noted that Russia's missile strikes are slowing and attributed this to that Russia is likely running low on missiles, and thanks to sanctions can't easily build more. Initially Russia was using them heavily because the sanctions had loopholes so they figured it was no big deal, but those have mostly been closed now...so yeah, Russia is the one who's going to have the supply issues while Ukraine will continue to be resupplied with little issue.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

The whole Russian army has around 130 Ka-52s.

Also each one has an estimate cost of about $15 million. Almost $200 million down the drain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Latvia is based! https://www.leta.lv/eng/home/important/B9DDEAD2-8333-442F-8891-9DEF94E1534B/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Netherlands will cease using all Russian gas and coal by the end of the year.

Yeah this is going to devestate Russia's economy in an irreversible way. It's not like all this business would return if they pulled out tomorrow and all sanctions were lifted.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The FSB was tasked with cooking up a fake assassination plot against Vladimir Soloviev, one of Russia's most prominent TV presenters. They were apparently ordered to make the assassins appear as neo-nazi meth-head Ukrainians.

The instructions apparently included "plant three SIMs", which was understood as Sims 3.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1518706131220283396

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's important to note that Russia has really no type of direct supply line to Transnistria at all. They did in the 90s back when Ukraine was pro-Russia but when that changed they had to resort to getting supplies there via commercial shipment, and the Russian soldiers literally get there by taking commercial flights to Chisinau and being transported in civilian trucks.

If Ukraine and Moldova launched a joint strike at it, it would probably fold about as quickly as Russia was expecting Kyiv to. The Transnistrian "military" is probably less powerful in military strength than some Mexican drug cartels. The Russian soldiers there, well I guess it comes down to if they surrender immediately or not. They don't have much reason not to honestly. It's not a place Russia wants to pick a fight as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Whoever said its mountainous is probably confusing it with Romania which has a reputation as mountainous because of the Carpathians. Although they still make up a minority of the country's area and most of the population doesn't live there at all. Bucharest is in a region that's about as flat as Illinois.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

Is there a notable pro-Putin faction in the SPD or is Schroeder just a real weirdo?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1522201486654066688

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Awwww yeah!

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1522509777053618176

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This doesn't sound like the actions of the side expecting to win in a day.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1523097431566479361

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Another Ukraine poll.

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Here's a photo of the Virgin Putin being cucked by the Chad Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow Estonia and Latvia are based! Tender Branson should be disappointed though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1525132564020723712

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]