Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[MT Treasurer]

If Youngkin loses decisively (>4 or arguably even >3 points), I don’t think any Republican was going to win here under any circumstances. Maybe it’s just time to accept that VA is completely gone for the GOP at the state level as well.

This is why I disagree with the notion that Barbara Comstock would have been favored in a Senate special election in VA in 2017 under a President Clinton. GOP can barely poll* more than 40% against someone like McAuliffe while the Democratic President's approval numbers have been in free fall, and that’s not even a federal race.

It’s obviously not just "NoVA" either — other D-trending parts of the state are arguably even more inflexible, including Richmond metro, the independent cities, and arguably even the Hampton Roads area (this is also what doomed Gillespie in 2014).

The state is already more solid for Democrats than it was at any point under R rule.

*Yes, I am taking polling with a huge grain of salt, but it’s remarkable nonetheless.

[Non Swing Voter]

Everyone should be prepared this November when Youngkin supporters retaliate after they lose.

All signs are pointing to a violent coup attempt in Richmond.

Nah, the MT Treasurers and SirWoodburys of the world will just lobby their legislators to vote in some voter suppression bill and get some ice cream and be fine.  Terry made it clear after Charlottesville that he's not playing around.

[Panhandle Progressive]

excerpt from Sarah Rankin's article in the AP yesterday:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe asked a court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Virginia Republicans that seeks to remove him from the ballot in this year’s closely watched race for governor over an alleged paperwork error.

In a filing Friday evening, attorneys for the former governor now running for a second term against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin said the suit was based on a “legal lie” and would effectively invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes cast in the Democratic primary.

McAuliffe argued in his filing that nothing in Virginia code requires a candidate to sign the declaration of candidacy.

Further, the filing said: “Even if there were a technical defect with the declaration of candidacy — and there is not — it would provide no basis for removing McAuliffe’s name from the general election ballot and preventing Virginia’s voters from choosing him as their next Governor. The declaration of candidacy is a prerequisite for placement on the ballot in the primary election, not the general election, and the primary election has already concluded.”

“There is no basis for the Republican Party to now — almost three months later — contest the results of another party’s primary,” his filing said.

Several state election law experts told the AP on Thursday, when the suit was filed in Richmond Circuit Court, that they would be surprised if it succeeds. Online court records do not show that a hearing has been set.

[Duke of York]

excerpt from Sarah Rankin's article in the AP yesterday:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe asked a court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Virginia Republicans that seeks to remove him from the ballot in this year’s closely watched race for governor over an alleged paperwork error.

In a filing Friday evening, attorneys for the former governor now running for a second term against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin said the suit was based on a “legal lie” and would effectively invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes cast in the Democratic primary.

McAuliffe argued in his filing that nothing in Virginia code requires a candidate to sign the declaration of candidacy.

Further, the filing said: “Even if there were a technical defect with the declaration of candidacy — and there is not — it would provide no basis for removing McAuliffe’s name from the general election ballot and preventing Virginia’s voters from choosing him as their next Governor. The declaration of candidacy is a prerequisite for placement on the ballot in the primary election, not the general election, and the primary election has already concluded.”

“There is no basis for the Republican Party to now — almost three months later — contest the results of another party’s primary,” his filing said.

Several state election law experts told the AP on Thursday, when the suit was filed in Richmond Circuit Court, that they would be surprised if it succeeds. Online court records do not show that a hearing has been set.

I seriously doubt any judge would throw the election into chaos by removing McAuliffe from the ballot especially with ballots beginning to be printed.

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe wins and then there's a bunch of news coverage about it being a non-consecutive 2nd term, I wonder if it makes Trump more likely to run in 2024?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

excerpt from Sarah Rankin's article in the AP yesterday:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe asked a court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Virginia Republicans that seeks to remove him from the ballot in this year’s closely watched race for governor over an alleged paperwork error.

In a filing Friday evening, attorneys for the former governor now running for a second term against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin said the suit was based on a “legal lie” and would effectively invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes cast in the Democratic primary.

McAuliffe argued in his filing that nothing in Virginia code requires a candidate to sign the declaration of candidacy.

Further, the filing said: “Even if there were a technical defect with the declaration of candidacy — and there is not — it would provide no basis for removing McAuliffe’s name from the general election ballot and preventing Virginia’s voters from choosing him as their next Governor. The declaration of candidacy is a prerequisite for placement on the ballot in the primary election, not the general election, and the primary election has already concluded.”

“There is no basis for the Republican Party to now — almost three months later — contest the results of another party’s primary,” his filing said.

Several state election law experts told the AP on Thursday, when the suit was filed in Richmond Circuit Court, that they would be surprised if it succeeds. Online court records do not show that a hearing has been set.

Reminds me when republicans tried to throw James Smith off the ballot for briefly seeking the libertarian nomination

[Non Swing Voter]

It's amazing.  Republicans are so good at politics nationally but so bad at it in Virginia.  They are literally suing to remove the other sides candidate 2 months before the election.  Do they think this looks good?  And yeah, most people wont notice but this is a low turnout election and that's just going to rile up Democrats in a state where the partisan makeup is decidedly against the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone tell Trumpkin that there never were COVID *lockdowns* in Virginia? Or anywhere else for that matter?

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1432387907785007120

[KaiserDave]

This election is not competitive

[beaver2.0]

I'm still kind of surprised Ayala was nominated.  It feels like she's invisible at the moment.  Of course, so is Herring but he's the incumbent.

[freepcrusher]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

[wbrocks67]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

yes, god forbid they are trying to keep people safe and not sick! how terrible!

[jamestroll]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

There are no covid restrictions in Virginia.

[Non Swing Voter]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

We don't currently have any mandates or restrictions in Virginia unless it's a private business asking customers to wear a mask or something, at least not for adults.  I live in Virginia and haven't once had to show proof that I've been vaccinated for any reason ever.  If I go into Starbucks now masks are "recommended" and entirely optional.  Everything else is basically honor code that you're vaccinated or else wear a mask.   School is starting soon and I'm not sure what certain counties are doing on that front. 

As to Youngkin, I can see why you'd think that given how Cucinelli did last time.  However, Virginia is a much different state than it was 7 years or so ago.  Fairfax was trending Dem then but the collar counties around it were still fairly Republican.  Now Loudoun country is extremely diverse and drives up Dem totals.  Richmond suburbs are changing too.  In 2013 VA was a lot more like NC, now it's a lot more like NJ.  Also, quite frankly, Youngkin sucks as a candidate.  He's very unlikable, his ads suck, there's clearly no strategy to his campaign.  He's flailing around.  Candidate quality still matters and he was a poor pick.

[Non Swing Voter]

One other thing to ad about Youngkin's piss poor performance.  This is exactly what happens when a party does back room deals to anoint a candidate in waiting that they think is more electable.  Dems did this with Hillary and look how that turned out.  When you actually have a real primary it tests candidate quality, even if you might get someone who is a little more partisan or who doesn't seem as good on paper.  I am sure people though Rubio was more electable than Trump at the time.  But the bottom line is when parties do that they shoot themselves in the foot because they get a Hillary or a Youngkin. 

[Roll Roons]

One other thing to ad about Youngkin's piss poor performance.  This is exactly what happens when a party does back room deals to anoint a candidate in waiting that they think is more electable.  Dems did this with Hillary and look how that turned out.  When you actually have a real primary it tests candidate quality, even if you might get someone who is a little more partisan or who doesn't seem as good on paper.  I am sure people though Rubio was more electable than Trump at the time.  But the bottom line is when parties do that they shoot themselves in the foot because they get a Hillary or a Youngkin.  

Even if you think Youngkin is doing poorly, it's not like Amanda Chase of all people would have been any better.

[freepcrusher]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

We don't currently have any mandates or restrictions in Virginia unless it's a private business asking customers to wear a mask or something, at least not for adults.  I live in Virginia and haven't once had to show proof that I've been vaccinated for any reason ever.  If I go into Starbucks now masks are "recommended" and entirely optional.  Everything else is basically honor code that you're vaccinated or else wear a mask.   School is starting soon and I'm not sure what certain counties are doing on that front. 

As to Youngkin, I can see why you'd think that given how Cucinelli did last time.  However, Virginia is a much different state than it was 7 years or so ago.  Fairfax was trending Dem then but the collar counties around it were still fairly Republican.  Now Loudoun country is extremely diverse and drives up Dem totals.  Richmond suburbs are changing too.  In 2013 VA was a lot more like NC, now it's a lot more like NJ.  Also, quite frankly, Youngkin sucks as a candidate.  He's very unlikable, his ads suck, there's clearly no strategy to his campaign.  He's flailing around.  Candidate quality still matters and he was a poor pick.

a lot of the schools have mask mandates. No more mask mandates or vax mandates.

[jamestroll]

There is a lot of wish casting among youngkin supporters. Like there is literally serious talk among the gop of youngkin outright carrying fairfax county.

Loudoun County they basically have as safe youngkin.

He has an outside shot there if things they very very bad for the democrats though.

[Suburbia]

McAuliffe will win but by 2-5 points.....

McAuliffe will be seen as a potential 2024/2028 contender because he is an attack dog and is partisan and he will use that in the debates....

That is what he is known for....

Dems should not take VA, NJ for granted, just like how Republicans shouldn't take FL or TX for granted...

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe will win but by 2-5 points.....

McAuliffe will be seen as a potential 2024/2028 contender because he is an attack dog and is partisan and he will use that in the debates....

That is what he is known for....

Dems should not take VA, NJ for granted, just like how Republicans shouldn't take FL or TX for granted...

I agree with you on the VA-GOV outcome and margin, but this would be dumb.  McAuliffe wouldn't play well nationally, for the same reason Hillary didn't. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

McAuliffe will win but by 2-5 points.....

McAuliffe will be seen as a potential 2024/2028 contender because he is an attack dog and is partisan and he will use that in the debates....

That is what he is known for....

Dems should not take VA, NJ for granted, just like how Republicans shouldn't take FL or TX for granted...

Every sentence of this is preposterous.

[Non Swing Voter]

One other thing to ad about Youngkin's piss poor performance.  This is exactly what happens when a party does back room deals to anoint a candidate in waiting that they think is more electable.  Dems did this with Hillary and look how that turned out.  When you actually have a real primary it tests candidate quality, even if you might get someone who is a little more partisan or who doesn't seem as good on paper.  I am sure people though Rubio was more electable than Trump at the time.  But the bottom line is when parties do that they shoot themselves in the foot because they get a Hillary or a Youngkin.  

Even if you think Youngkin is doing poorly, it's not like Amanda Chase of all people would have been any better.

That's the conventional wisdom but I'm simply not sure at this point.  Youngkin is even less inspiring than empty suit Rubio.

[wbrocks67]

Trumpkin at it again

https://twitter.com/MichaelRWarren/status/1433170864116277248

[wbrocks67]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

[Not Me, Us]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

Does Trumpkin know that Virginia is an extremely pro-choice state? Why would he think this is a winning message, abortion rights are an extremely important issue to many Virginians.