Ireland Election 2007

[Harry Hayfield]

Is there such a thing as an electoral calulator (along the lines of UK Elect) for the Irish Dail?

[Harry Hayfield]

Ireland 2007 Confirmed. May 24th 2007

Which means

May 3rd 2007: Super Thursday UK
May 6th 2007: France President Round 2
May 12th 2007: Manitoba 2007
May 24th 2007: Ireland 2007

Buses anyone?

[Harry Hayfield]

but my grandparent's video recorder has been on the blink recently so looking in the manual it said "If you are experiencing problems, reinstall usuing the Auto Install function", so I did and guess what I came up with?

ONLY RTE 1, RTE 2 and TG4!!!!

So as a result I will be recording RTE 1's election coverage and transferring it to DVD so that I can try and understand the electoral method that we may soon have here in Wales as part of any rainbow coalition deal.

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you very much indeed Jas, that's very useful indeed. In that case, could you advise me on the following:

Party Colours (for all parties likely to win seats)
Blank Constituency Maps (preferably 24bit BMP)
and any unusual terms I am likely to come across

[Harry Hayfield]

I've just finished tallying 2002 and have I got this right? Fianna Fail "won" every constituency?

[Harry Hayfield]

I am sorry to state that I cannot record the Irish General Election now and have figured out how I was able to get a very good RTE 1, RTE 2 and TG4 signal. Atmospherics.



That is the forecast pressure map for midday today and as you can see there is a low pressure system heading towards Ireland and Wales, yet over the last few days we have had a area of extreme high pressure (and that's been the reason for the very good Irish television signals). Sorry.

[Harry Hayfield]

As the poll has a 2.5% margin of error, perhaps it might be best to do it this way:

Fianna Fail: 39.1% - 44.1%
Fine Gael: 24.8% - 29.8%
Labour: 7.4% - 12.4%
Progressive Democrats: 0.1% (unlikely) - 5.1%
Greens: 2.3% - 7.3%
Sinn Fein: 4.8% - 9.8%
Others: 5.0% - 10.0%

[Harry Hayfield]

We also have some turnout figures:

Dublin Central: 74% (+19% on 2002)
Dublin North: 68% (+8% on 2002)

[Harry Hayfield]

FPV declarations : 4 out of 42

Fianna Fail: 66,700 (38.29%)
Fine Gael: 36,440 (20.92%)
Labour: 24,585 (14.11%)
Progressive Democrats: 9,261 (5.32%)
Green: 13,643 (7.83%)
Sinn Fein: 11,995 (6.89%)
Independents: 4,363 (2.50%)
Socialists: 6,646 (3.82%)
Others: 546 (0.31%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Heads Up!

BBC Parliament will be simulcasting RTE 1's election coverage from 7.00pm to 9.00pm this evening!

[Harry Hayfield]

13 of 42 FPV's declared

Fianna Fail: 257,802 (40.65%)
Fine Gael: 163,772 (25.82%)
Labour: 73,865 (11.65%)
Progressive Democrats: 20,673 (3.26%)
Green: 29,009 (4.57%)
Sinn Fein: 52,317 (8.25%)
Independents: 27,658 (4.36%)
Socialists: 6,646 (1.05%)
Others: 2,425 (0.38%)

GAINS:
Kerry North: FG pluarity GAIN from FF
Change on 2002: FF 31% (+1%), FG 32% (+10%), Lab 11% (-12%), Green 2% (+2%), SF 20% (-4%), Ind 3% (+2%). Swing from FF to FG: 4.5%

[Harry Hayfield]

29/43 announced FPV (as on Election Ireland)

Fianna Fail: 551,938 (41.20% -0.31%)
Fine Gael: 369,059 (27.55% +5.06%)
Labour: 135,609 (10.12% -0.66%)
Progressive Democrats: 38,166 (2.85% -1.12%)
Green: 72,918 (5.44% +1.59%)
Sinn Fein: 91,257 (6.81% +0.29%)
Independents: 55,798 (4.16% -5.33%)
Socialists: 13,230 (0.99% +0.19%)
Others: 11,718 (0.87% +0.28%)
Swing from FF to FG: 2.69%

Constituencies "won": FF 27 (-2) FG 2 (+2)

6 completed counts (as of Election Ireland)
Cavan Monaghan: FF 3, FG 1, SF 1
Dublin Mid West: FF 1, Lab 1, PD 1, Green 1
Dublin South West: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1
Dublin West: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1
Kildare South: FF 2, Lab 1
Sligo, Leitrim North: FF 2, FG 1
Totals: FF 11, FG 4, Lab 4, PD 1, Green 1, SF 1

[Harry Hayfield]

Using data from Election Ireland where we have 35 / 43 FPV's declared and 38 / 43 full counts completed, the tallies are:

Fianna Fail: 718,900 (41.89% +0.38%) winning 65 seats
Fine Gael: 479,077 (27.92% +5.43%) winning 45 seats
Labour: 170,265 (9.92% -0.86%) winning 17 seats
Progressive Democrats: 44,898 (2.62% -1.35%) winning 1 seat
Greens: 89,253 (5.20% +1.35%) winning 5 seats
Sinn Fein: 117,598 (6.85% +0.34%) winning 3 seats
Independents: 70,060 (4.08% -5.41%) winning 5 seats
Socialists: 13,230 (0.77% -0.03%) winning 0 seats
Others: 12,823 (0.75% +0.15%) winning 0 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

Which Celtic nation had a recent similar election to this? Answer: Scotland

What seems to have happened is that Fine Gael has mopped up all the support from the smaller opposition parties (just like the SNP mopped up all the votes it lost to the Greens and the SSP in 2003).

As for possible coalitions, looking at the seats won, the most likely to me is Fianna Fail (77) + Greens (6) + Progressive Democrats (2) = 85 (majority of 4), but given that the Progessive Democrats were hammered, it's just as likely that they may ask the Independents (5) to come on board as well.