Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

ELECTION DAY!

[Harry Hayfield]

I've just finished tallying 2002 and have I got this right? Fianna Fail "won" every constituency?

[Verily]

When do polls close? They must have closed by now; it's 9 PM in Ireland. Will there be exit polls?

[merseysider]

I've just finished tallying 2002 and have I got this right? Fianna Fail "won" every constituency?

Yes, their support is very evenly spread across the country. Normally the only constituencies where any other party tops the poll or comes close are in Dublin (or Dun Laoighaire, which I am told used to be a real Fine Gael stronghold).

[Verily]

When do polls close? They must have closed by now; it's 9 PM in Ireland. Will there be exit polls?

Just looked it up; apparently polls were open until 10:30! No wonder the Irish wait until the next day to begin counts.

[Јas]

I've just finished tallying 2002 and have I got this right? Fianna Fail "won" every constituency?

Yep. (Plurality wise).
Not going to happen this time though, a number of constituencies should have FG as the 'winners', Mayo should probably be the biggest FG 'win'.

Yes, their support is very evenly spread across the country.

Certainly more evenly than is common for political parties.

Normally the only constituencies where any other party tops the poll or comes close are in Dublin

Not necessarily true. Actually depends whether you mean top the poll or as a party win a plurality of the votes.

It's not at all uncommon for other parties (and independents) to top the poll.

As regards pluralities, they usually achieve this quite widely, including in Dublin. (Arguably moreso in Dublin due to the greater number of parties running there fragmenting other parties votes).

(or Dun Laoighaire, which I am told used to be a real Fine Gael stronghold).

Used to be, not anymore. 2 seats in 1997; lost them both in 2002. (Though should get one back this time).

[Јas]

When do polls close? They must have closed by now; it's 9 PM in Ireland. Will there be exit polls?

Just looked it up; apparently polls were open until 10:30! No wonder the Irish wait until the next day to begin counts.

Yep, polling closed at 10:30.
Counting always begins the next day - clear heads are needed for the long PR-STV counts!

RTÉ commissioned Lansdowne to carry out an exit poll. It won't be released until 7a.m. tomorrow morning though . In 2002, the exit poll (by the same parties - and released immediately after polls closed) proved quite accurate (the greatest disparity was a 1.1% overestimation of FF).

Counting will begin at 9a.m.
By around 11a.m. to noon, the tallies (i.e. estimates of the first count totals) should be available.
The earliest first count declarations should be in the early afternoon.

[Harry Hayfield]

I am sorry to state that I cannot record the Irish General Election now and have figured out how I was able to get a very good RTE 1, RTE 2 and TG4 signal. Atmospherics.



That is the forecast pressure map for midday today and as you can see there is a low pressure system heading towards Ireland and Wales, yet over the last few days we have had a area of extreme high pressure (and that's been the reason for the very good Irish television signals). Sorry.

[Јas]

RTÉ/Lansdowne Exit Poll
[MOE 2.5%]

(Change on General Election 2002)
FF 41.6 (+0.1)
FG 26.3 (+3.8 )
Lab 9.9 (-0.9)
PD 2.6 (-1.4)
Green 4.8 (+0.9)
SF 7.3 (+0.8 )
Other 7.5 (-3.3)

!!!

If accurate FF very likely to be back in, though may need a new partner. Paddy Power bookmakers have paid out on Ahern to be the next Taoiseach on the basis of these numbers. A bit pre-emtive perhaps, but if the numbers are accurate, he is the strong frontrunner.

My prediction effectively goes out the window, as I really didn't see FF staying above 40.

Good result for FF, bad/poor results for everyone else.

Turnout seems to be up, but there have been very significant problems. The electoral register underwent effectively a complete rewrite a few months back. Unfortunately plenty of people have fond themselves off the register to great disgruntlement.

[Harry Hayfield]

As the poll has a 2.5% margin of error, perhaps it might be best to do it this way:

Fianna Fail: 39.1% - 44.1%
Fine Gael: 24.8% - 29.8%
Labour: 7.4% - 12.4%
Progressive Democrats: 0.1% (unlikely) - 5.1%
Greens: 2.3% - 7.3%
Sinn Fein: 4.8% - 9.8%
Others: 5.0% - 10.0%

[Harry Hayfield]

We also have some turnout figures:

Dublin Central: 74% (+19% on 2002)
Dublin North: 68% (+8% on 2002)

[Јas]

Progressive Democrats: 0.1% (unlikely) - 5.1%

It's fair to say the 5.1% is just as unlikely.

I'm hearing that the Táiniste/Minister for Justice/PD leader Michael McDowell is "crashing" in Dublin SE.

[minionofmidas]

Progressive Democrats: 0.1% (unlikely) - 5.1%

It's fair to say the 5.1% is just as unlikely.

I'm hearing that the Táiniste/Minister for Justice/PD leader Michael McDowell is "crashing" in Dublin SE.

MoE is somewhat smaller for parties that small I think.

[minionofmidas]

At what time can we expect
- some first round counts to come in
- the first round counts to be completed
- some final counts to come in (that's probably some time tomorrow I guess)
- the final result?

http://www.rte.ie/aertel/751-01.html

[minionofmidas]

Ahé. Something called "first tallies", for every constituency. Not the official first count, mind you, just a partial result towards that.

12:12 Dun Laoghaire, 51% Boxes Open, FF 36%, FG 24%, LAB 15%, PD 7%, GP 8%, SF 2%, IND 8%, Prediction FF2, FG1, LAB1 and 5th ?

12:07 Carlow-Kilkenny, 13% Boxes Open, FF 51%, FG 31%, LAB 6%, PD 1%, GP 7%, SF 4% 

12:05 Cork South-Central, 66% Boxes Open, FF 42%, FG 31%, LAB 9%, PD 3%, GP 9%, SF 5%, Prediction 2FF, 2FG, GP or LAB - last 1

12:02 Tipperary North, 53.64% Boxes Open, FF 37%, FG 16%, LAB 11%, PD 2%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 30%, Prediction 1 FF, 1IND, 1FG

12:01 Kerry North, 100% Boxes Open 

12:00 Cavan-Monaghan, 95% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 31%, LAB 1%, GP 4%, SF 20%, IND 6%, Prediction No data

12:00 Galway East, 65% Boxes Open, FF 43%, FG 37%, LAB 2%, PD 9%, GP 2%, SF 4%, IND 3% , Prediction 2 FF, 2 FG

11:58 Meath East, 70% Boxes Open, FF 44%, FG 26%, LAB 13%, PD 2%, GP 3%, SF 4%, IND 8%, Prediction FF2, FG1

11:58 Wicklow, 48% Boxes Open, FF 37%, FG 25%, LAB 16%, PD 1%, GP 7%, SF 5%, IND 10%, Prediction 2FF, 2FG, 1Lab. 

11:55 Roscommon-South Leitrim, 53% Boxes Open, Prediction 1 FF, 1 FG and poss FG gain

11:54 Mayo, 49% Boxes Open, FF 26%, FG 54%, LAB 1%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 3%, IND 15% 

11:53 Dublin North-East, 75% Boxes Open, FF 39%, FG 23%, LAB 15%, PD 2%, GP 6%, SF 14%, Prediction No data

11:53 Dun Laoghaire, 51.33% Boxes Open, FF 36%, FG 24%, LAB 15%, PD 7%, GP 8%, SF 2%, IND 8%, Prediction FF2, FG1, LAB1 and 5th ?

11:53 Dublin Mid-West, 96% Boxes Open, FF 32%, FG 12%, LAB 10%, PD 12%, GP 10%, SF 9%, IND 9%, WP 1%, Prediction FF

11:51 Dublin Central, 70% Boxes Open, FF 45%, FG 10%, LAB 13%, PD 1%, GP 6%, SF 9%, IND 17%, CSP 1%, Prediction FF-1;IND-1;SF/FG/LAB- last 2

11:51 Sligo-North Leitrim, 55% Boxes Open , FF 40%, FG 36%, LAB 6%, GP 4%, SF 14%, IND 1%

11:51 Kildare North, 50% Boxes Open, FF 39%, FG 21%, LAB 18%, PD 2%, GP 5%, SF 2%, IND 13% , Prediction FF 2, LAB 1


11:50 Cavan-Monaghan, 95% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 31%, LAB 1%, GP 4%, SF 20%, IND 6%, Prediction No data


11:49 Dublin North-Central, 27% Boxes Open , FF 46%, FG 27%, LAB 6%, GP 4%, SF 4%, IND 13%, Prediction FF 1, FG 1, last seat FF/IND


11:48 Tipperary North, 36% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 15%, LAB 10%, PD 1%, GP 4%, SF 1%, IND 31%, Prediction 2FF, 1IND


11:48 Dublin Mid-West, 96% Boxes Open , FF 32%, FG 12%, LAB 10%, PD 12%, GP 10%, SF 9%, IND 9%, WP 1% , Prediction FF


11:47 Dublin Central, 70% Boxes Open , FF 45%, FG 10%, LAB 13%, PD 1%, GP 6%, SF 9%, IND 17%, CSP 1% 


11:47 Dublin North-Central, 54% Boxes Open , Prediction FF 1, FG 1, last seat FF/IND


11:45 Dublin North-Central, 27% Boxes Open , FF 47%, FG 25%, LAB 6%, GP 3%, SF 6%, IND 13% , Prediction FF 1, FG 1, last seat FF/IND 


11:42 Cork North-West, 85% Boxes Open , FF 51%, FG 39%, LAB 4%, GP 4% , Prediction FF2 FG1


11:42 Dublin Mid-West, 96% Boxes Open , Prediction FF


11:40 Dublin North-West, 35% Boxes Open 


11:39 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open , FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9% 


11:38 Tipperary North, 36% Boxes Open , FF 38%, FG 15%, LAB 10%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 31% , Prediction 2FF, 1IND


11:37 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open , FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9% 


11:36 Tipperary South, 67% Boxes Open , FF 46%, FG 22%, LAB 8%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 3%, IND 15% , Prediction 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND


11:36 Cavan-Monaghan, 60% Boxes Open

11.35 Dublin South-Central, 50% Boxes Open , FF 32%, FG 12%, LAB 19%, PD 2%, GP 4%, SF 13%, IND 17%, CSP 0%, WP 1% , Prediction 2FF, 2LAB, 1SF


11.35 Dublin North, 60% Boxes Open , FF 39%, FG 12%, LAB 12%, PD 2%, GP 17%, SF 3%, IND 4%, SP 10%, CSP 0% , Prediction 2FF,1GP,1Lab/FG/Soc

11:04 Dublin South, 44.22% Boxes Open , FF 43%, FG 25%, LAB 12%, PD 6%, GP 10%, SF 3%, IND 0% , Prediction None


11:04 Dublin South-Central, 32% Boxes Open , FF 33%, FG 11%, LAB 15%, PD 1%, GP 3%, SF 15%, IND 19%, CSP 0%, WP 1%, Prediction 2FF, 2LAB, 1SF


11:33 Dublin West, 100% Boxes Open , FF 37%, FG 20%, LAB 17%, PD 2%, GP 4%, SF 5%, SP 15% , Prediction None


11:00 Donegal South-West, 40% Boxes Open , FF 53%, FG 26%, LAB 2%, GP 2%, SF 16%, IND 1% , Prediction FF2, FG1


11:08 Galway East, 43% Boxes Open , FF 44%, FG 42%, LAB 1%, PD 7%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 1%, Prediction 2 FF, 2 FG


11:01 Kildare North, 25% Boxes Open , FF 40%, FG 19%, LAB 18%, PD 2%, GP 5%, SF 2%, IND 14% , Prediction FF 2, LAB 1, IND 1


11:23 Kildare South, 63% Boxes Open , FF 49%, FG 17%, LAB 23%, PD 4%, GP 5%, IND 1% , Prediction 2 FF, 1 LAB

11:37 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open , FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9%


11:26 Longford-Westmeath, 28% Boxes Open , FF 41%, FG 39%, LAB 4%, PD 10%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 0%, CSP 0%


10:26 Louth, 21% Boxes Open , FF 46%, FG 31%, LAB 5%, GP 8%, SF 16%, IND 1%, WP 0% , Prediction FF 2, FG 1, SF1


11:08 Mayo, 31% Boxes Open, FF 27%, FG 56%, LAB 1%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 1%, IND 13%


11:02 Sligo-North Leitrim, 55% Boxes Open , FF 49%, FG 21%, LAB 8%, GP 5%, SF 17%, IND 1%


11:38 Tipperary North, 36% Boxes Open , FF 38%, FG 15%, LAB 10%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 31% , Prediction 2FF, 1IND


11:07 Waterford, 22.1% Boxes Open , FF 44%, FG 28%, LAB 12%, GP 2%, SF 8%, IND 2%, WP 3% , Prediction 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.


Sorry, this is the order in which they came, from the RTÉ.
And some of these are not very informative.

[Verily]

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McDowell will lose his seat to Fianna Fail if that keeps up.

[Harry Hayfield]

FPV declarations : 4 out of 42

Fianna Fail: 66,700 (38.29%)
Fine Gael: 36,440 (20.92%)
Labour: 24,585 (14.11%)
Progressive Democrats: 9,261 (5.32%)
Green: 13,643 (7.83%)
Sinn Fein: 11,995 (6.89%)
Independents: 4,363 (2.50%)
Socialists: 6,646 (3.82%)
Others: 546 (0.31%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Heads Up!

BBC Parliament will be simulcasting RTE 1's election coverage from 7.00pm to 9.00pm this evening!

[Harry Hayfield]

13 of 42 FPV's declared

Fianna Fail: 257,802 (40.65%)
Fine Gael: 163,772 (25.82%)
Labour: 73,865 (11.65%)
Progressive Democrats: 20,673 (3.26%)
Green: 29,009 (4.57%)
Sinn Fein: 52,317 (8.25%)
Independents: 27,658 (4.36%)
Socialists: 6,646 (1.05%)
Others: 2,425 (0.38%)

GAINS:
Kerry North: FG pluarity GAIN from FF
Change on 2002: FF 31% (+1%), FG 32% (+10%), Lab 11% (-12%), Green 2% (+2%), SF 20% (-4%), Ind 3% (+2%). Swing from FF to FG: 4.5%

[Јas]

Ahé. Something called "first tallies", for every constituency. Not the official first count, mind you, just a partial result towards that.

Tallies are unofficial counts by party officials monitoring the workers sort out the votes.


The dreaded "overall majority" is a possibility and nobody saw it coming, least of all me).

The smaller parties are having nightmares of varying degrees...

This has been a disaster for the PDs. McDowell looks likely to be gone. Very quick scan indicates Grealish (Galway W) and Harney (Dublin MW) may make it.

Horror for the Greens, no sign of gains and indeed they could face losses.

SF also in difficulties, Sean Crowe in Dublin SW faced a 7.7% swing against him! Still may come out with a gain in Donegal SW though.

The Socialist Party could be gone from the Dáil. Joe Higgins in Dublin W is likely to lose out, and their only other competitive candidate (Clare Daly - Dublin N) looks too far behind to make it.

But, the People Before Profit Party (effectively the Socialist Workers Party rebranded) are in contention in Dun Laoighaire !!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a link to results?

[Јas]

Is there a link to results?

Unfortunately theres's scant variety online. RTÉ are the only real option.

RTÉ Online
RTÉ Aertel (Click on the page numbers to make the link.)


It's looking like a fantastic day for FF, moderate gains for FG and huge headaches for everyone else.

My predictions increasingly look like science-fiction.

[Verily]

Mary Harney's been elected in Dublin Mid-West, so the PDs won't be totally wiped out. The Socialists lost their seat in Dublin West, though, so they're gone.

[ag]

Is there a link to results?

Unfortunately theres's scant variety online. RTÉ are the only real option.

RTÉ Online
RTÉ Aertel (Click on the page numbers to make the link.)

Try http://www.electionsireland.org/results/general/30dail.cfm

[minionofmidas]

No first counts yet for Donegal NE, Dublin NW, Dublin SC, Laois-Offaly, and Wicklow.
Dublin Mid-West, SW, W, and Limerick W complete.

Dublin Mid-West:
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
Dublin SW:
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Dublin W:
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Limerick W:
2 FF, 1 FG

Comparing these with Jas' predictions:
Dublin MW is correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)
Dublin SW is false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.
Shame about Jas being proved wrong in Dublin West.
Limerick W is correct as far as persons elected go, tho' the closest race was between the two FG candidates rather than between the second FF and the second FG guy.