Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Biden 2024]

✏️

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm awake now. Who is leading?

[Mexican Wolf]

I'm awake now. Who is leading?

Castillo, by about 25,000 votes according to ONPE.

50.08% Castillo to 49.92% for Fujimori.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Just under 23% of the votes from abroad are in, reminder.

[ElectionObserver]

When are we expecting the votes from Spain and the US to start coming in as both countries will supply a significant number of votes?

[Sestak]

Update: 94.27 in, 49.898-50.102

Castillo gains 0.026 from 0.21.

[kaoras]

When are we expecting the votes from Spain and the US to start coming in as both countries will supply a significant number of votes?

The unofficial count in Spain Was 60-39 for Fujimori. Chile is also a big chunk that has nothing counted

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

So if you guys were to guesstimate - who will end up being the winner?

[ElectionObserver]

So if you guys were to guesstimate - who will end up being the winner?

It certainly looks like Castillo at the moment. The margin will be super tight though.

[Oryxslayer]

So if you guys were to guesstimate - who will end up being the winner?

Castillo is maybe favored by a florida-style microscopic margin  - out of over 17 million votes - but there really remain a lot of unknowns. Keiko's gonna come back via the expats, but theres a lot of questions about that pool - the largest being if the measured turnout so far remains the same. The country vote meanwhile is left in 10 provinces. 3 are in the amazon, one is coastal and for Fujimori, 3 are healthy Castillo  leads, and 3 are southern indigenous blowouts. The three Amazon provinces have about 40% of the remaining vote centers, 33% are in the blowouts, 36% in the others. but how many net votes remain is again the question to be asked.

[Mexican Wolf]

Another vote drop from ONPE: Castillo up by almost 40,000 votes, 50.12% to 49.88%.

https://twitter.com/ONPE_oficial/status/1401955426585952261

[kaoras]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

[DL]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

[Geoffrey Howe]

50.2% Castillo in Peru at 97.4% counted. Struggle to see Fujimori winning.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Except this result is still surprising - Humala only received 23% of the vote in Arica in 2011. There were far fewer eligible voters then so I wonder if many Peruvian migrants settled there recently.

[PSOL]

The US expat vote might give Keiko a slim win.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The US expat vote might give Keiko a slim win.

That’s definitely what she and half the country are banking on.

[ElectionObserver]

What will happen if the final result is a lead of 0.1 or 0.2 percent? Is there some mechanism for recounts and will this end up in the courts like it would in the US?

[Oryxslayer]

What will happen if the final result is a lead of 0.1 or 0.2 percent? Is there some mechanism for recounts and will this end up in the courts like it would in the US?

PPK won 2016 by 41K votes or 50.1 to 49.9. Fujimori conceded 5 days after polls closed. Things will probably be different this time.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Well, it was before the 1880s.

[Mike88]

Curiously, in an election with two deeply disliked candidates, the share of invalid/blank ballots is on the same level of previous elections, much lower than in the 1st round, and even lower compared with other election like 2006, for example.

[seb_pard]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

[Walmart_shopper]

Uh oh Fujimori is going to have to call in another coup favor from the Yanquis.

[Mike88]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

Or maybe it was a vote against the other side, like "I cannot spoil my ballot and let the other side win".

[kaoras]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Except this result is still surprising - Humala only received 23% of the vote in Arica in 2011. There were far fewer eligible voters then so I wonder if many Peruvian migrants settled there recently.

Maybe the recent political developments in Chile have soured Peruvians with right wing politics.