2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman isn't losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI the EV favors Ds and no way Johnson is up 5 and the Gov race is tied that's OVERPOLL by pollsters on Johnson Fetterman leads by 6 in MARIST and by 1 in Research Co and if Fetterman is up 1 and CCM down 1 he has pA Lean R and CCM Lean D doesn't makes sense to me

[wbrocks67]

I'm quite baffled by the PA change. It sure is close, but Oz has led in *1* nonpartisan poll, and it was by a single point. He hasn't been able to top 48% in any poll besides one (and that was the CBS/YouGov where people were essentially forced to pick).

Even the GOP polls that have him winning only have him at 47-48%, which certainly seems like his ceiling.

Seems like their just going off of the "PA polls overestimate Democrats" usual thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589700815899328512

And if it went to R/O? The Senate would be decided in January for a second time.

The run-off is in early December this year.  I'm not sure why it was in January last year (maybe because of the simultaneous special election). Tbh it seems like it should not be legal to hold a run-off after the Senate is sworn in on Jan. 3.

Summary: the runoff period was originally 3 or 4 weeks after Election Day for both state and federal elections.  A federal lawsuit on the grounds that military/overseas voters didn't have enough time in that scenario caused the federal runoff period to be pushed several weeks further, while the state remained at 4 weeks (this is why Georgia had split runoffs in 2020).  However, last year's election law changes removed the difficulty by sending RCV ballots to the military/overseas voters, allowing the state and federal runoffs to be reunified at 4 weeks.

[Person Man]

I'm quite baffled by the PA change. It sure is close, but Oz has led in *1* nonpartisan poll, and it was by a single point. He hasn't been able to top 48% in any poll besides one (and that was the CBS/YouGov where people were essentially forced to pick).

Even the GOP polls that have him winning only have him at 47-48%, which certainly seems like his ceiling.

Seems like their just going off of the "PA polls overestimate Democrats" usual thing.

It is as if they know that there’s some warehouse somewhere off of I-80 or the PA turnpike that stores tens of thousands of extra Republican ballots or maybe there’s some giant safehouse that stores all of those hidden male virgin voters out there and sends them out crammed like sardines in short buses to vote for Trump and his Coke buddies. The bus probably smells like sardines afterwards. It’s the old-fashioned “hide your 500’s Monopoly strategy”.

[President Johnson]

Their bromance is so awesome

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1589648880810852353

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589755760648794112?t=mdy1XcQfTCpXh61yieD...

[GALeftist]

I'm quite baffled by the PA change. It sure is close, but Oz has led in *1* nonpartisan poll, and it was by a single point. He hasn't been able to top 48% in any poll besides one (and that was the CBS/YouGov where people were essentially forced to pick).

Even the GOP polls that have him winning only have him at 47-48%, which certainly seems like his ceiling.

Seems like their just going off of the "PA polls overestimate Democrats" usual thing.

The actual reason is that A. no one wants to bet against Ralston and B. no one wants to say Democrats are favored to take the Senate which C. necessitates giving GA and PA to the GOP. It's shoddy reasoning, but might be rewarded. IDK

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone familiar with this ratings site?  https://www.racetothewh.com/.  I just stumbled on it -- talk about last minute.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1589767818895319040

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589768609722949632?t=P8w5PAZM6w-OM7MI9Og...

[American2020]

Anyone familiar with this ratings site?  https://www.racetothewh.com/.  I just stumbled on it -- talk about last minute.

https://twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1589706670841946113

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If there is one shred of hope I have left, it's that expert perception of late movement in races feels like it has been wrong as often as it has been right in recent cycles. That being said, if I were a betting person I would bet on Republicans taking both chambers at this point - the House easily and the Senate probably narrowly.

I desperately hope I'm wrong. I think empowering authoritarians and conspiracy theorists is going to be an unbelievably dangerous choice by the voters, but unfortunately the voters who sit exactly in the middle of the electorate are often frighteningly uninformed and dangerously easy to mislead.

[Person Man]

Looks like the final average between Nate Silver (1.2%) and Sean Trende(2.5%) is 1.8%.

[Ferguson97]

Looks like the final average between Nate Silver (1.2%) and Sean Trende(2.5%) is 1.8%.

Which may seem small but that can make quite the difference with so many close races.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1589767818895319040

We've seen this pretty consistently - all of the Latino-only polls this cycle have generally been around D+25-30. This also lines up with Civiqs too FWIW (D+27)

Not sure who is right, but it's interesting that both Latinos and young voters are considerably more Dem when we get these big sample polls vs. the small subsamples.

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos finally pushed people, FWIW

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1589757424323682306

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs looks like it's gonna end up with D+3, 50-47

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

They have:

18-34: D+20 (57-37)
35-49: D+6 (51-45)
50-64: R+8 (52-44)
65+: D+4 (51-47)

Females: D+18 (57-39)
Males: R+14 (55-41)
Independents: R+4 (48-44)

Whites: R+15 (56-41)
Blacks: D+80 (88-8)
Hispanic/Latino: D+27 (61-34)

[Dani Rose]

Civiqs looks like it's gonna end up with D+3, 50-47

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

They have:

18-34: D+20 (57-37)
35-49: D+6 (51-45)
50-64: R+8 (52-44)
65+: D+4 (51-47)

Females: D+18 (57-39)
Males: R+14 (55-41)
Independents: R+4 (48-44)

Whites: R+15 (56-41)
Blacks: D+80 (88-8)
Hispanic/Latino: D+27 (61-34)

My favorite gender.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Civiqs looks like it's gonna end up with D+3, 50-47

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

They have:

18-34: D+20 (57-37)
35-49: D+6 (51-45)
50-64: R+8 (52-44)
65+: D+4 (51-47)

Females: D+18 (57-39)
Males: R+14 (55-41)
Independents: R+4 (48-44)

Whites: R+15 (56-41)
Blacks: D+80 (88-8)
Hispanic/Latino: D+27 (61-34)

I wish I could live in a world where things would make sense and this could be the actual result.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs looks like it's gonna end up with D+3, 50-47

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

They have:

18-34: D+20 (57-37)
35-49: D+6 (51-45)
50-64: R+8 (52-44)
65+: D+4 (51-47)

Females: D+18 (57-39)
Males: R+14 (55-41)
Independents: R+4 (48-44)

Whites: R+15 (56-41)
Blacks: D+80 (88-8)
Hispanic/Latino: D+27 (61-34)

I wish I could live in a world where things would make sense and this could be the actual result.

I mean, FWIW, when we've gotten oversamples of young voters and latino voters, the results have looked more like that than most of the national polls subsamples

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1589767818895319040

We've seen this pretty consistently - all of the Latino-only polls this cycle have generally been around D+25-30. This also lines up with Civiqs too FWIW (D+27)

Not sure who is right, but it's interesting that both Latinos and young voters are considerably more Dem when we get these big sample polls vs. the small subsamples.

Interesting then that Hispanics are only D+13 in the CCES, which had the national congressional vote overall at D+2.  I wonder if the difference in terms between Hispanic and Latino yields different results.

Whites were only R+6 in the CCES, while “Other” race was much more Republican.  (Remember that the CCES is an enormous sample.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder when are they gonna start polling Senate Numbers, the H is just as Gone for Rs in 24 as Ds in 22 it's doubtful they get 237 seats as Sabato predicted more like 225


Let's go Youngkin v Kaine Behear polling McCormick v Casey I don't know whom is running against STABENOW

[tagimaucia]

It appears that IBD/TIPP (one of the very best long running national pollsters around) was supposed to put out their final generic ballot today or yesterday, but they seem to have simply never published that part of the poll (they did put out Biden approval, economic numbers, etc.).  I suspect that the result they got was too Dem friendly and the editorial staff at IBD spiked it, but who knows.

If they did put out generic ballot numbers and I just missed them, please share a link.

[Devout Centrist]

Gas prices went up over the past two weeks or so. They are now going down.

See you all in two weeks.