Ohio redistricting thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blairite's Ohio Map



OH-01
East Cleveland Suburbs, Youngstown, Warren
Currently represented by Tim Ryan and Dave Joyce, although only Ryan lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-02
East Cleveland and Southeast Suburbs
40% black
Currently represented by Marcia Fudge and Dave Joyce.
Safe D

OH-03
West Cleveland and Suburbs
Currently represented by Bob Gibbs, Anthony Gonzalez, Jim Jordan, and Marcy Kaptur, although only Gonzalez lives in the district.
Likely D

OH-04
Akron and Canton
Currently represented by Tim Ryan, Marcia Fudge, Bill Johnson, Bob Gibbs, and Anthony Gonzalez, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-05
West Cleveland Suburbs, Sandusky
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur, Bob Gibbs, and Jim Jordan, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-06
Toledo
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta
Likely R

OH-07
Mansfield, Wooster, Canton
Currently represented by Bill Johnston, Bob Gibbs, Troy Balderson, and Anthony Gonzalez, although only Gibbs lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-08
Lancaster, Zanesville, Athens
Currently represented by Troy Balderson, Steve Stivers, and Bill Johnson, although only Balderson and Johnson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-09
Marion, Lima, Urbana
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Bob Latta, and Warren Davidson, although only only Jordan and Davidson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-10
North and West Columbus suburbs
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Troy Balderson, Joyce Beatty, and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Tossup

OH-11
Columbus
Currently represented by Joyce Beatty and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Safe D

OH-12
Springfield, Xenia, Kettering
Currently represented by Steve Chabot, Warren Davidson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although only none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-13
Hamilton, Middletown, Dayton
Currently represented by Warren Davidson and Mike Turner, although only Turner lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-14
Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Hillsboro
Currently represented by Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-15
Cincinnati
Currently represented by Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup
Likely D

Summary:
2 safe D
2 likely D
1 tossup
3 likely R
7 safe R

I think the tossup becomes a pretty strongly Dem district with 2020 numbers, as it drops the non Delaware/Franklin portion and is trending left. All in all, I think this would generally be a 10-5 map through the decade.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

"Compactness" is just a proxy for COIs. It doesn't have value in and of itself. Aesthetics as an inherent matter (as opposed to how they might implicate COIs) aren't a consideration for redistricting.

Maps looking pretty is absolutely an important issue!

As for the Cincy suburbs - I'm kinda in favor of a district made up of Butler + Warren + Greene.   I know Greene is more associated with Dayton, but it's still suburbia like Butler and Warren.   You can still make a great Dayton district with Miami and Clark (the 2019 population numbers work pretty good for this, it's very close).

Yup, I agree.

Splitting Columbus east/west actually works out way better for building up an AA opportunity seat.   I could actually see them doing something like that in the commission.

Pairing the northwest quadrant of Franklin with Delaware makes a clean, coherent CD and leaves the remaining 3/4 of Franklin as AA opportunity.