MS - Likely R -> Safe R
KY - Lean D -> Lean D
VA SD 24 - Tossup -> Tilt R
Agree with all of this. It likely means MS won't even be close and VA R's now have more upside south of Richmond. No reason to change KY, though.
I'm quite confused as to why people are making such changes, considering this isn't about "oh minority turnout is low" .... there is a reason here, and a lot of context, that does not crossover to pretty much any race.
The bottom line in LA is that Democrats did not invest. There wasn't a turnout operation; given how awful NOLA turnout was. Wilson barely had money; Landry did. RGA spent, DGA didn't. This isn't very hard to understand. 2022 showed us that were Dems *did* invest, they did pretty well. That's why LA is nothing like VA, KY, even MS at this point, given all those states are getting somewhat of a level of investment for GOTV from Democrats, while LA didn't. That's pretty much what this boils down to.
Exactly why FL-GOV was a mess for Democrats last year. They just didn't even try.
Charlie Crist was literally the governor of the state for 4 years, was the gubernatorial nominee in 2014, ran for Senate in 2010 and served in Congress for Six years. He had massive name recognition and should have had a floor of at least 45% without even trying!