When is it too late for Biden to drop out?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

One of the interesting facts that has come out in the Trump trial in NY is that the RNC was considering dropping Trump as the Republican candidate after the Access Hollywood tape came out, when there was only a month (or less) until election day 2016.

This suggests that it is in fact possible for a Presidential candidate to be replaced pretty late into the process, even though many ballots had been printed by that point and some votes already had started to be cast via early voting. Remember, even if Biden's name were to stay on the ballots in the event of a late drop out, Democratic electors could publicly pledge to vote for some other designated candidate, so a vote for "Biden" could in reality be a vote for another designated candidate.



It is of course still possible that Biden could win, and it's possible the polls could be systemically wrong in underestimating him, but it's not looking good. To reiterate, given the current polls, it is entirely possible IMO that Biden could still win, but that's not good enough. We need a guarantee (or close to a guarantee) of victory. The stakes in this particular election are simply too high, because a Trump victory could lead to the end of the United States.

Even if you think Biden is particularly substantively good (and I can understand the argument for that - he has in fact been relatively good in a lot of ways, albeit too weak on Ukraine, climate change, and the Supreme Court), it's reckless in the extreme to place that consideration above electability if it is true that American voters would be substantially more likely to vote for another Democratic candidate who is young, likeable, and fresh. Polling in a dead heat is also certainly not good enough or acceptable (and it's not even a dead heat, it's a slight Trump lead - look at the averages you hack) because Trump is likely to have an electoral college advantage.

If Biden drops out now, there could still be time to organize some hasty caucuses in at least some states to give the new candidate some sort of democratic legitimacy, rather than having them emerge from a smoke filled room.

If Biden instead waits until later, dropping out would be more complicated, and the only viable option may be for his VP to replace him. For that reason, his VP choice is particularly important, and he should be pressured to select whoever is the most electable candidate to potentially replace him.

Either way, if things don't start to move substantially more in Biden's favor (perhaps if Trump is convicted and even after that Biden is STILL down in polls), he should at some point consider his patriotic duty and consider whether he should place his duty as an American above his own personal ambition. How late is too late for him to do this?

[Mr. Smith]

January 20th, 2029 or 2025 methinks.

[7,052,770]

It became "too late" last year, and it was never going to happen, barring some insurmountable health issue.

[ꙮ]

Biden is not dropping out and was never going to drop out. Here's another helpful list of things which will not happen, which I'm sure Atlasians will nonetheless discuss as though they are real possibilities:

A contested convention
A cancelled/virtual convention
Replacing the incumbent VP
A third party candidate winning a state
A House contingent election (This is probably the most likely of the bunch. It still will not happen.)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

January 20th, 2029 or 2025 methinks.

Dropping out after inauguration day seems like little more than empty virtue signaling, but I added on/after inauguration day as poll options for you anyway.

If Trump wins, dropping out after he is inaugurated would be meaningless, and if Biden were to win, there would be no reason for him to drop out unless he didn't want to do the job or unless he has some sort of sudden health issue.

[holtridge]

After the certification of the electoral votes. That would be too late for any candidate in any Presidential Election to drop out I suppose.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This discourse was some of the most tiresome of this cycle imo

[President Johnson]

January 20, 2029

[Electric Circus]

Dropping out abruptly and allowing delegates to figure it out at the convention would be a bold play to disrupt the race.

It would be the ultimate show of faith in representative democracy, the healing balm to the gaping wound of January 6. Joe Biden could say, this is what democracy looks like, not the fake McGovern-Fraser version where people spend millions of dollars on television advertisements and social media inanities to compete in a parade of low turnout elections with widely varying rules. This could be the Gettysburg of Joe Biden's "Battle for the Soul of America," the triumph that they eventually look back on as the one that turned the tide, and the event that cements his place in presidential history.

N.B. I'm not saying that it would happen, just that it could happen if Democrats wanted it. It's "too late" in the sense that the party decided many months ago that an open contest is too risky. But everyone here dreams of watching something like this unfold, even if we don't actually want it to happen now.

[MichaelM24]

I'll be upfront - I don''t think Biden should have ran again, I don't think Democrats should have voted for him, and I'm not going to vote for him myself.

That said, I largely feel that Democrats and potential Democratic voters made their bed. Biden can't drop out at this point, unless there's a major health concern (and if there is a major health concern, I think Democrats become even more screwed).

Democrats just need to hope that Biden stays in moderately good health for at least the next eight months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone needs to relax and take it easy it's not until Nov Eday

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

In 2020 Biden alluded to being a one term president, being a bridge to younger generation and Harris taking over. Harris is so bad and Biden is a serial liar…. He shouldn’t have ran in 2024 just as he promised he wouldn’t.

[GMantis]

A House contingent election (This is probably the most likely of the bunch. It still will not happen.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

A House contingent election (This is probably the most likely of the bunch. It still will not happen.)

Eh, NE-2 isn't going to vote for Trump this year. Not that a one vote electoral college victory would be a good outcome either.

[Obama24]

In 2020 Biden alluded to being a one term president, being a bridge to younger generation and Harris taking over. Harris is so bad and Biden is a serial liar…. He shouldn’t have ran in 2024 just as he promised he wouldn’t.

I think if he'd picked a more likable VP, he may have actually not run this year. Problem is, Harris would lose in a landslide to Trump.

[GMantis]

A House contingent election (This is probably the most likely of the bunch. It still will not happen.)

Eh, NE-2 isn't going to vote for Trump this year. Not that a one vote electoral college victory would be a good outcome either.

Provided Nebraska doesn't switch to winner-takes-all, which their governor still hasn't given up on.

[DaleCooper]

A House contingent election (This is probably the most likely of the bunch. It still will not happen.)

Eh, NE-2 isn't going to vote for Trump this year. Not that a one vote electoral college victory would be a good outcome either.

Provided Nebraska doesn't switch to winner-takes-all, which their governor still hasn't given up on.

He has. He's saying that he'll call a special session to do it "if it has the votes" so that mentally challenged people like Charlie Kirk will stop giving him crap over it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Dropping out has no real meaning election wise after January 6. If Biden died the day before election day, they'd probably quickly announce that the electors would be voting for Harris for President.

[Skill and Chance]

A House contingent election (This is probably the most likely of the bunch. It still will not happen.)

Eh, NE-2 isn't going to vote for Trump this year. Not that a one vote electoral college victory would be a good outcome either.

Provided Nebraska doesn't switch to winner-takes-all, which their governor still hasn't given up on.

He has. He's saying that he'll call a special session to do it "if it has the votes" so that mentally challenged people like Charlie Kirk will stop giving him crap over it.

Also, Maine legislative leaders have now released a statement that they will immediately retaliate if Nebraska acts, so a map in which Maine splits its EV and Nebraska doesn't isn't plausible.  And if Maine voted for Trump statewide, he wins without it going the House in this scenario.

To go to the House this year, you likely need RFK winning states.