This is the nail in the tossup FLGOV race. If Gillum is leading by 4 in an R pollster, then DeSantis is not close. This is a lean D race, folks.
How exactly are tossups rated by most people? I saw someone else post that RCP generally rates any race that is consistently within 5 points or less on either side as tossups, and 5 - 10 are Lean D/R. So just as an example, this would still be a tossup by RCP's system.
On the other hand, my own views are generally not strictly data-oriented. If the race is consistently D+2 or D+3 or whatever, and I don't believe there is any reason it will ever go below that, then I'd put it as Leans D myself, even though it's still within the MoE (more or less).
I use polls and state variables
In FL for instance, Gillum has a lead of around 3 points. Normally, this would point to a tossup. But the state, FL, is known for being resistant to waves and swinging, so Gillum leading by that is actually worth more than, say, a Democrat in MA leading by 4. There is also the time placement of the polls(this should have been Ron's best moment) and other small things that lead me to say Lean D.
