I'm not so sure about this possible invasion of Eastern Ukraine.
If we believe in Russia's justification that Putin wants to protect their people (I don't), many maps posted in this thread showed that ethnic Russians are a plurality in little enclaves surrounded by ethnic Ukrainians. An intervention (and annexation) against that zones would destroy the credibility of the Casus Belli defended by Moscow.
I have "evolved" in my previous thoughts and I think that Putin wants Crimea for the only reason of not losing in a future Russian's naval bases and the traditional Manifest Destiny of every Russian Empire of an available-even-in-winter military port and a dominant position in the Black Sea.
Year after year the possibility of an "European" and pro NATO Ukraine increases.
That and the pipelines... but I would not talk about it because I've read different and many times contradictory information of the issue and I'm not a specialist in energy geopolitics.
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In other words, if Putin hasn't fell in megalomaniac dementia, I think that Crimea will be his last adventure for the moment. There are treaties, I know, but I can't see "Americans", Europeans and Western Ukrainians going to a complete war against a superpower for a peninsula that should have never left Russia, both by population and geopolitical balance.
This is not so different than some of my thoughts on the other thread about separation. However, a week ago there was a diplomatic path for the US to act to reopen the Budapest Memorandum and subsequent basing agreement for changes in status for both Crimea (more Russian sphere) and Ukraine (more EU/NATO sphere). I don't see that path as clearly now given actions by Russia and statements by the US.
