Ukraine Crisis

[Peeperkorn]

Russia will invade and occupy Ukraine tomorrow morning it seems.

What? Did I miss a joke?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Somehow I doubt that the point of Gully's proposed exercise is to be taken so literally. The map is not the territory ought to be this forum's mantra.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

For all the map fantasists, I repeat my challenge of earlier:



This is 1913. Draw a series of 'rational' ethnic boundaries. While keeping in mind that these majorities in many places were frequently waver thin... (and that cities were frequently inhabited by very different ethnic groups to the surrounding countryside... and also in many cases had large Jewish populations...).

Btw, I'm now ignoring 4 people thanks to this thread.

The answer is to give Transleithania to the Turks and Cisleithania to the Germans. I'm sure the Slavs and Hungarians will be very understanding.

[windjammer]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

[RogueBeaver]

Russian UN Ambassador says that Yanukovych has written to Putin asking him to use military force in Ukraine. Could be disinformatsiya, but puppets are puppets.

[retromike22]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.

[windjammer]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.

Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

[Mopsus]

In case it's being interpreted as an actual attempt to divide the territory of Austro-Hungarian Empire... my map is an approximation of the Nazi division of that region during World War II. 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In case it's being interpreted as an actual attempt to divide the territory of Austro-Hungarian Empire... my map is an approximation of the Nazi division of that region during World War II. 

Ah I was wondering that. Should have spotted it. Either way, Nix's point still stands.

[Peeperkorn]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine.

I was thinking the same....an Ukraine without Crimea will put an end to the balance of power between the two political groups.

Anyway, after an event like that, probably all the political system will be changed.

[ag]

I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

Remember the old joke about the 1968 events in Prague? They used to say that after the invasion, the Polish government prohibited swimming in the Bug river: what if somebody starts drowning, calls for help and is heard by the Russians?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.

Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

But isn’t guaranteed access to a warm water port in the Black Sea more crucial than keeping the Ukraine as a puppet state? The Ukraine has shown itself to be vulnerable even with the Crimea. They are gambling Crimea’s strategic value on what has been proven time and time again to be a weak hold on Ukrainian affairs.

My apologies for asking rather simple questions.

[ag]

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

And, most definitely in Anchorage. Alaska was and will be Russian, of course.

Stop talking bullsh**t.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.

Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

Not all Ukraine.

[ag]

To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

[Peeperkorn]

To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

Source?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

That's your indicator the WWIII is coming?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I also remember invasion on Czechoslovakia caused a global war. Oh wait.

[windjammer]

2010 Ukraine presidential election: (Without Crimea)
Tymochenko: 50.2%
Ianoukovitch: 49.8%

Timochenko would have won. I tend to believe that Russians are "bluffing". If they annex Crimea, they will massively lose their influence in the rest of Ukraine. And I don't think it's what they want. Remember Stalin who wanted the Federal Republic of Germany and East Germany to merge and to be a "neutral" zone, a kind of "nomansland' between the two superpowers (and Adenauer refused this plan). Russia has always wanted to have a "buffer strip". And if they annex Crimea right now, Ukraine won't be a buffer strip anymore. That's why I believe they are bluffing.

I think the Russians want Crimea more than they want (or need) a buffer state. Finland, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO and EU states and they border Russia, with no buffer states between them.

Finlnd isn't a member of NATO. But you're right for Estonio and Latvia.
But if they annex Crimea, they will definitely lose their influence in  Ukraine!

Not all Ukraine.

Maybe not all Ukraine, but the Party of Region would probably struggle.

[Cassius]

That Ukrainian admiral who defected to the Russians apparently tried to persuade some more of the Ukrainian navy to defect. But instead, a number of them struck up with their national anthem. It was a rather moving sight I must say.

[retromike22]

Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

[Peeperkorn]

 BBC 22:25:

Poland has invoked Article 4 of Nato's founding treaty, under which consultations can be requested when an ally feels their security is threatened. Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski has said that while the Ukraine crisis is not a direct threat to Poland and that the country is safe, Poland wants to enlist Nato as a tool to work for stabilisation in Ukraine.

[ag]

Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.

[ag]

To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

Source?

http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/novosti-sng/ukraine/entry1008201702.html

Polled between Feb 8 and Feb 18

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.

Ukraine is not Japan. Where's an analogy?