NJ-11 2018: Jay Webber vs. Mikie Sherill: Who wins?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I know anecdotal evidence and all that but this is my district and I see practically 0 enthusiasm for Webber (not seen a sign since the primary) while I see tons of Sherill bumper stickers and still a number of signs, and this is in the core Republican part of the district. Yeah it's still early and things could change, but people here don't really care about their state legislators for one (so that advantage doesn't matter a whole lot for Webber) and have been hurt quite a bit by the tax bill, so they're not so hot on federal Republicans in any case at the moment. As I've discussed before, the Morris GOP in a serious crisis, they lost money on a Trump fundraiser, their County Clerk has been involved in a scandal over violation of election law, and they have less than $100,000 on hand total. The Morris GOP is, in my opinion, not equipped to handle an actual challenge and may very well crumble this year, or at least see their grip significantly loosened. And if the GOP's not getting big margins out of Morris, or if they even lose it, they have no shot district wide.

Lean D, closer to Likely at this point

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

As I've discussed before, the Morris GOP in a serious crisis, they lost money on a Trump fundraiser, their County Clerk has been involved in a scandal over violation of election law, and they have less than $100,000 on hand total.

How incompetent do you have to be to LOSE money on a fundraiser, let alone one with the freaking POTUS? LMAO.

I was slightly mistaken, it was not with Trump, it was at his golf course in Bernardsville (although they did strongly suggest that maaaaaybe he'd be there wink wink nudge nudge, presumably to try to bring in more people, but he did not show) https://newjerseyglobe.com/section-2/morris-gop-nearly-broke/

But yeah, it's the handiwork of a county party that has been dominant and virtually unchallenged since time immemorial. They have been infected by the same rot and complacency that often infects dominant actors in one-party systems, and one good shove might topple the whole thing. If there were such a year for that to happen, it's this year. Local Dems are finally looking strong enough to deliver such a blow.